SECOND CIVIL WAR IN KARABAKH
By Elsad Mammadli and Teymur T
Yeni Musavat
Nov 23 2009
Azerbaijan
Military operations against Armenia are again on the agenda
Behind the scene moments of official Baku’s bellicose statement;
it is rumoured that Russia has agreed to local operations; Shocking
statements by Vafa Quluzada
The Azerbaijani authorities have again started issuing bellicose
statement. As for whether or not this is rhetoric or a well-thought-out
step, our latest observations enable us to say that the authorities’
intention to resort to a military solution is not at all ruled
out. President Ilham Aliyev’s relevant statement issued ahead of the
Munich meeting [between Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents on 22
November] and the possibility of resorting to a military solution if
the talks with Armenia fails, has turned the global agenda upside down.
Peaceful option complete fiasco
Yesterday throughout the day, Turkish media outlets discussed the
Azerbaijani president’s statements and a possible resumption of the
hostilities. The presidents’ Munich meeting, according to reports
available to yesterday night, has in no way contributed to the
resolution of the conflict through talks.
After rapprochement with Turkey, Armenia has been behaving improperly;
like at the Moldova meeting, from the outset, it was not expected
that the enemy would demonstrate a constructive position this time.
Therefore, it is already possible to say that a peaceful option for
the resolution of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict has turned out to be
a fiasco, the use of force, a war option have settled on the agenda
as alternative-free option.
True, Azerbaijan has another option, that is to say, to compromise
Nagornyy Karabakh and the occupied lands to Armenia and to reconcile
itself to the emergence of the second Armenian state at the expense
of the Azerbaijani lands.
Certainly, not any authorities, including the Aliyev government
would and can agree to this option. From this standpoint, it is
quite possible for a war to spark off again in the region in the near
future. There are already no multiple choices for Azerbaijan as well
as its authorities. Bearing the developments around the situation in
line with this option, the Armenian authorities have already launched
defensive preparations in Nagornyy Karabakh.
War preparations
Our permanent readers may recall that media outlets covered the
recent visit of the Armenian president and the defence minister
to Nagornyy Karabakh’s occupied lands and observation of defensive
preparations of the self-styled Armenian regime there. Yeni Musavat
newspaper also carried a banner headline report on this topic, gave
an in-depth analysis of the issue in question and came up with the
possibility of the start of the second civil war.
The Azerbaijani side is also conducting preparations for a war to an
extent that is tangible. Changes were made in the army, conflicts at
the Defence Ministry were eliminated, patriotic topics and positive
programmes on the armed forces are increased on TV channels. For
example, the commander of a corps stationed in a war zone, Mahmud
Hamzayev, and the chief of the Baku Supreme Military School, Maj-Gen
Heydar Piriyev, were discharged from their posts.
The chief military commissar, with whom the defence minister has
been at loggerheads for many years, was dismissed. The contacts with
the Turkish armed forces have been intensified. Several high-ranking
officers of the Turkish armed forces have recently been to Baku.
Contacts have also been intensified with Russia, of whose interference
is feared in case war is resumed in Nagornyy Karabakh.
Even under some reports, Russia’s military and political elite has
tacitly agreed to Azerbaijan’s local military operations in Nagornyy
Karabakh. True, billions of petrodollars are said to play a role in
the issue, however, anyway, quite reliable people say that "in case
the hostilities are resumed, Russia would only denounce this act
verbally and there would not be a military interference as was the
case with Georgia.
Azerbaijan said be given green light
Azerbaijan would be given enough time to advance towards several
districts in order to oblige Armenians to agree to compromises. The
USA also knows this; however, it hesitates the possibility of the
hostilities to enlarge and therefore, is completely against it.
Even there are rumours afloat that the US administration has sent
its representative to Baku to deliver a sharp statement to make the
Aliyev government to avoid a war option…"
We should note here that the four well-known resolutions of the UN
and the organization’s charter recognize Azerbaijan’s right to ensure
its territorial integrity by any means. Apart from the right to war,
Azerbaijan, no doubt, has enough military, economic and human potential
to banish the occupier from its territory within a short time. And
many experts share the same satisfaction that though the system of
corruption and bribery has deep roots, with the current army Azerbaijan
can give a worthy answer to Armenia and free its territories from the
occupiers within a short time. This is also clear to the superpowers.
Azeri leader threatens to resume hostilities to free lands
On the eve of the Munich meeting, President Ilham Aliyev issued a
clear-cut statement on a military option: "…The activities in the
army building over the recent years have certainly their aims. We
are doing this as we have never ruled out this option. We have the
full right to liberate our lands militarily."
Our newspaper is publishing an article about the Munich meeting of
yesterday. Nevertheless, its outcome was obvious when this material was
being prepared. Therefore, we spoke to political expert Vafa Quluzada,
who knows this topic in-depth, to analyze a war option that has been
featuring as a priority now and asked him several questions.
Mr Quluzada played a significant role in the wide-ranging activities
with regard to the conflict, participated in talks and meetings on
behalf of the state. Therefore, it is very important to pay attention
to what he has said.
The political expert believes that since yesterday Russian mass media
outlets have been carrying reports that Azerbaijan is rich, is paying
funds to the armament and the military elite has been speaking of
a war option for a long time and that the president of the country
issues statements on the liberation of the lands militarily: "They
also sound such an opinion that it is possible that Azerbaijan has
got Russia’s consent to this end. That is to say, Russia may not
interfere in this matter. If only Moscow consents, Azerbaijan can
resume hostilities. However, it is interesting that even if the Kremlin
pledges this, to what extent will it honour its promise? There crops
up another question. Can Armenia not punish Azerbaijan with secret
support of Russia?
Will Russia remain neutral?
On the other hand, at the cost of what has Russia given its consent
to remain neutral? What has Azerbaijan to give Russia in order
they remain neutral? If there is such a reciprocal agreement there,
Azerbaijan has to give a lot to Russia.
First, it has to completely change its political orientation. These
questions so far remain unanswered. Therefore, one should still wait
to see where the processes are heading to."
In all, a day after the Munich meeting, the planning of the Azerbaijani
president’s visit to Russia is worth attention. So the head of the
Russian presidential administration, Sergey Naryshkin, is visiting
Azerbaijan today with Ilham Aliyev going to Moscow tomorrow.
Could it be possible to verify Russia’s consent to a possible war
option in the wake of the planned meeting of Ilham Aliyev to Moscow
immediately after Munich?
"If a war option is serious, then this issue has been agreed with
Moscow long ago," Vafa Quluzada said, adding that "if the issue is
real, the existing situation, steps to be taken were well-balanced.
Therefore, I consider that this visit at this stage is simply
calculated to demonstrate the friendship with the Russian president.
However, I personally do not trust Russia."
The processes concerning the conflict have reached both the most
interesting and most dramatic aspect now. Armenia does not want to
make compromises and Azerbaijan does not want to give its lands; the
West does not want to defend those who are right but the Christian
[Armenia].
In its turn, Turkey has been neutralized following various games;
it has already signed agreements with Armenia. Given this, there is
indeed no other way except for a war.