CHANGES IN REGION CAN DESTABILIZE SITUATION IN SAMTSKHE-JAVAKHETI: EXPERTS
Trend
Nov 4 2009
Azerbaijan
The situation in the Georgian region of Samtskhe-Javakheti, largely
populated by the Armenians, can soon destabilize due to ongoing
changes in the region, experts believe.
"After the Turkey- Armenia rapprochement, Georgia will not have an
argument that the return of Meskhetian Turks will create new ethnic
problems in the region," said Georgia’s former economy minister,
senior fellow at the Fund for Strategic and International Studies
of Georgia, Professor Vladimir Papava. "However, in reality, the
Armenians living in those territories [Samtskhe-Javakheti] do not
want and fear the return of the Turks.
The Georgian authorities’ policy may provoke the Armenians of
Samtskhe-Javakheti to demand secession from Georgia, as Abkhazia and
South Ossetia did, Sevak Artsruni, President of "Yerkir" Union of
Public Organizations on Repatriation and Settlement told journalists
on Nov.2, ARMENIA Today reported.
According to him, the population of Samtskhe-Javakheti do not want to
separate from Georgia, but Georgia’s current policy towards Armenians
of the region leads to it.
Artsruni noted that the patience of the Armenians of Samtskhe-Javakheti
can overflow and they can require respecting their rights by civilized
means, as Abkhazia and Ossetia.
Artsruni believes the radical and short-sighted policy of the Georgian
authorities could raise the question of secession by constitutional
means or by more extreme solutions that are not excluded. He noted
that in such cases, the fight begins peacefully but then becomes
more aggressive.
According to experts, the geopolitical changes in the region,
particularly normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations affect
the situation in Samtskhe-Javakheti.
It looks as first sight that Armenian-Turkish rapprochement will not
in any way affect Javahk, but it is not so Haykazun Alvrtsyan Head
of the Western Armenians’ Center said, PanArmenian reported.
Alvrtsyan said that, by opening border Armenian authorities will lose
control of Javahk, and the Armenian populated region of Georgia will
no longer enjoy Armenia’s support in international tribunals.
"That will also be a moral-psychological blow to Armenians of Javahk,"
Alvrtsyan said.
Regarding the Armenian authorities, he said that the authorities are
not interested in the settlement of the problem of Javahk.
"Issues related to Javakh were never included in Armenian
Parliament’s agenda." Besides, Georgian authorities always reacted
to Javahk-Armenians’ statements and always tried to avert any process
contradicting their interests, Alvrtsyan said.
"I consider fair the opinion of many experts that in the future
the development of the Armenian-Turkish relations can influence the
situation in Javakh," said the General Director of the Information
Analytical Center of Moscow State University, Professor of post-Soviet
foreign countries department Alexey Vlasov said.
"But in what direction the position of Armenia will change is not yet
clear, because, regardless the importance of the issue it is not is
a priority for the country’s leaders. A clear line will be determined
in several months," Vlasov told Trend News over the telephone.
According to Papava, if Armenia feels that the issue of the
Nagorno-Karabakh will be resolved in its favor, then some forces in
the country will begin to provoke conflict in Samtskhe-Javakheti
as well. This process should not be viewed as Georgia’s domestic,
but as a regional process and of course, the issue of Javakh should
be considered in the context of the Turkish-Armenian reconciliation
and the return of Meskhetian Turks to the territory where now the
Armenians live, He said.
"At present, Georgia is in a very difficult position, because the
biggest opponents of the return of Meskhetian Turks to this region
are the Armenians who live there," Papava said.
If the Turkey- Armenia rapprochement happens completely, the Armenian
communities living in Samtskhe-Javakheti should no longer oppose the
return of Meskhetians, but things are different, and this may cause
a wave of ethnic problems in the region, the expert said.
But Russian expert believes the problem of national minorities in
Georgia is not only connected with the geopolitical changes that have
occurred in the South Caucasus.
Georgia has internal problems connected with the enclaves inhabited
by Armenians and Azerbaijanis, not densely inscribed in the social,
economic and socio-cultural issues that should be decided by the
government, Vlasov said.
"All the problems of national minorities in Georgia should not be
connected only with the context of normalization of the Armenia –
Turkey relations," he said.
According to him, recent statements on Armenia’s territorial claims
have sounded mostly by representatives of the Armenian Diaspora. The
Diaspora’s representatives are the "Voice" of the country’s relations
to its neighbors’ lands, rather than the Armenians living within the
country, he said.
"In addition, the Armenian government keeps silence, fearing that any
word can affect the process of normalizing relations with Turkey. Now
the Armenian president and his entourage will focus on how to avoid
from direct answers to direct questions, because it is extremely
disadvantageous to the Armenian authorities," said Vlasov.