Month: November 2009

GEORGIA DENIES REPORTS OF "INCIDENT" ON ARMENIAN BORDER – AGENCY

Kavkas-Press
Nov 5 2009
Georgia

Tbilisi, 5 November: The Georgian side has denied Armenian media
reports that an incident took place on the border between Georgia
and Armenia. The Georgian Border Police said that no incident took
place whatsoever and that Border Police chief Zaza Gogava did not go
to the border.

According to the Armenian media, the Armenian side tried to install
demarcation posts, but the Georgian side offered resistance and
subunits of the Georgian army were observed near the border.

The Armenian media also reported that the situation became so tense
that heads of the Georgian and Armenian border police travelled to
the site of the incident and that the incident was later resolved.

It should be noted that the National Security Service of Armenia has
confirmed that the incident took place.

EXPERTS URGE AZERI GOVERNMENT TO AVOID STATIONING OF PEACEKEEPERS IN KARABAKH

Baki Xabar
Oct 26, 2009
Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan is said to make changes to its law on involvement in
peacekeeping missions which would, as some local experts think, be
tantamount to the loss of Karabakh. Baki Xabar daily reports that
changes to the law would mean stationing of peacekeeping forces
inside the country as stipulated in the Madrid Principles document
on a resolution of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over
Nagornyy Karabakh. In comments on a possible move of the Azerbaijani
authorities to have those changes endorsed by parliament under pressure
of superpowers, two experts on the conflict expressed almost identical
views that the possible stationing of peacekeepers would be tantamount
to loss of Karabakh. The following is the text of Musviq Abdulla
report by Azerbaijani newspaper Baki Xabar on 26 October headlined
"Some experts consider the law on peacekeepers as an integral part of
the Madrid Principles" and subheaded "Akif Nagi and Arif Yunus stick to
this opinion, moreover…" subheadings have been inserted editorially:

The Milli Maclis [parliament] is about to make amendments and addenda
to the law "On involvement in peacekeeping missions". A new draft
bill will soon be submitted to the discussions in parliament, the
security and defence issues committee of the parliament has reported.

Green light for peacekeeping inside country?

According to the proposed amendments, the deployment of international
peacekeeping forces on the territory of Azerbaijan would be added to
the law. Although the existing legislation envisages the involvement
of the Azerbaijani forces in international peacekeeping forces in
conflict zones, under the new option, Azerbaijan would allow such a
mission to take place on its territories. Political experts do not
consider it by chance for official Baku to adopt such a law when
efforts of international power centres have been stepped up for
the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Ahead of the
opening of the Turkish-Armenian borders, this process is coinciding
with reports that in line with the Madrid Principles, five or seven
districts around Nagornyy Karabakh would be returned to Azerbaijan.

Superpowers see eye to eye on a Karabakh accord

Despite a campaign of propaganda that Armenia will not agree to
any compromise once the borders with Turkey are opened, we can see
emerging understanding between the USA and Russia over a stage-by-stage
resolution of the problem. From this standpoint, it would be wrong
to think that the situation depends on the will of Armenia. It is
another issue whether or not the proposed model of solution favours
Azerbaijan. However, the superpowers have agreed to cooperate over
the resolution of the problem on the Madrid principles instead
of creating obstacles to one another. The [recent] joint visit of
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and Bako Sahakyan, the leader of
the Nagornyy Karabakh separatists, to Russia is highly likely to be
part of this process.

Political experts believe that Russia, which is taking steps back
under pressure of the West, can maintain the resolution of the problem
as proposed by the USA. We should recall that the Madrid Principles
stipulate the return of five districts in the first phase, granting of
a temporary status to Nagornyy Karabakh and then the determination of
Nagornyy Karabakh’s status through a referendum with the liberation of
Lacin and Kalbacar district at the final stage. If the five districts
are liberated, international peacekeeping forces must be stationed
in the zone of the conflict until a status of Karabakh is obtained.

Addressing the latest session of the Cabinet of Ministers, President
Ilham Aliyev said that Azerbaijan suggested that the districts around
[Karabakh] be returned and peacekeeping forces be stationed in between
these territories. It is likelihood that the expected amendments and
addenda to the law "On involvement in peacekeeping missions" serve
to this end. It is possible that in return for the return of five or
seven districts, an agreement would be signed between Azerbaijan and
Armenia on the non-use of forces for the resolution of the conflict.

Following this, peacekeeping forces are to be stationed in districts
liberated from Armenian troops as well as on state borders between
Azerbaijan and Armenia. Legal basis are now being prepared.

Peacekeepers in Karabakh is equal to loss of it, experts

Nevertheless, the news of possible deployment of peacekeepers is
causing concern. Akif Nagi of the Karabakh Liberation Organization
believes the approval of such a bill should not be allowed: "The
possible deployment of peacekeeping forces in Azerbaijan totally
runs against our state interests. We have been saying for a long time
that the stationing of international peacekeeping forces in Nagornyy
Karabakh will be tantamount to the loss of Karabakh. Regrettably,
official Baku consents to this under pressure of international
organizations. In their turn, international organizations want
Nagornyy Karabakh be handed over to Armenians. I think the Azerbaijani
authorities should not allow the deployment of peacekeeping forces
in Nagornyy Karabakh.

"If processes develop in line with this scenario, a proposal may
appear on the agenda under international pressure to grant the right
to the Armenian community of Karabakh through making changes to the
Constitution of Azerbaijan to hold a separate referendum there.

Therefore, I think Azerbaijan should demonstrate to the world that it
is inadmissible for international peacekeeping forces to be stationed
on its territory.

"Peacekeeping forces may only be stationed on the border between
Armenia and Azerbaijan. Because the latter has been subjected to the
Armenian aggression. I recall some members of parliament backing this
position a year ago. However, they have made up their minds under
international pressure now, trying to have peacekeepers stationed
here."

The leader of the Karabakh Liberation Organization thinks that without
involvement of a military peacekeeping contingent, Azerbaijan can
guarantee security of the Nagornyy Karabakh Armenians. This security
guarantee is possible to be determined through international legal
commitments. The amendments and addenda to the law "On involvement in
peacekeeping missions" must be removed from the agenda [of the Milli
Maclis]. This issue can be resolved between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Expert on conflicts Arif Yunus [of the Institute for Peace and
Democracy] considers that the changes expected to be made to the law
are harbingers of preparations for the stationing of peacekeepers
around Nagornyy Karabakh. The expert also suggests that Azerbaijan
should make efforts to prevent it: "There is no doubt that the new
bill aims to make the deployment of peacekeeping forces around Nagornyy
Karabakh a law proceeding from the Madrid Principles.

The stationing of peacekeepers stipulates the cession of Nagornyy
Karabakh from Azerbaijan in return for surrounding districts.

Armenians have repeatedly said that they will return the surrounding
districts. [You should] simply agree to the annexion of Nagornyy
Karabakh. That is to say, surrounding districts will be returned, and
Nagornyy Karabakh would be given a status close to independence. With
such a move, Azerbaijan may lose Nagornyy Karabakh.

And peacekeepers should be stationed around Karabakh to prevent a
war to break out. I have also to stress that the composition of the
peacekeeping forces mean a lot. If a contingent is made up of the
Russian armed forces, it would never be possible to pull it out from
there. Forget about the peacekeepers if they are stationed there. If
there still remains faint hope for the return of Karabakh, one should
get rid of it once peacekeepers are there."

KARABAKH MEDIATORS MEET IN YEREVAN

Interfax
Nov 6 2009
Russia

Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian met with the co-chairmen
of the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe)
Minsk Group on Friday to discuss the Karabakh settlement process.

"At the meeting the parties discussed a number of issues related
to the Karabakh settlement process," the Armenian Foreign Ministry
told Interfax.

Mediators Yury Merzlyakov (Russia), Bernard Fassier (France) and
Robert Bradtke (the U.S.) held meetings in Azerbaijan earlier.

NATO NOT A RIVAL TO RUSSIA IN ARMENIA – ENVOY

Interfax
Nov 6 2009
Russia

Robert Simons, Special Representative to NATO Secretary General for
the South Caucasus, does not think NATO is Russia’s rival in Armenia.

NATO does not see these relations as competition, he said at a
news conference in Yerevan on Friday. Moscow makes such statements
sometimes, but NATO does not think so, he said.

Armenia can develop relations with NATO, with the Collective Security
Treaty Organization and with Russia, and there is no competition here,
Simmons said.

On the process of building Armenian-Turkish relations, Simmons said
that a positive outcome of the talks would stimulate stabilization
in the region.

Armenian-Turkish protocols have to do with bilateral relations, he
said. NATO supports relations between Armenia and Turkey, but cannot
support either of the sides, Simmons said.

Hopefully, the protocols will be ratified by the Armenian and Turkish
parliaments, he said.

NATO TO HELP ARMENIA PROTECT BORDER WITH GEORGIA

Interfax
Nov 6 2009
Russia

NATO will provide technology that will help Armenia protect its
state borders.

The authorities of Armenia have asked NATO to provide technological
assistance to protect the sections of the state border under Armenia’s
control, the NATO secretary general’s envoy to South Caucasus Robert
Simmons told a news conference in Yerevan on Friday.

The alliance is working together with Armenia’s National Security
Service to protect the Armenian-Georgian border, Simmons said.

NATO has similar cooperation with other countries, he said.

Armenia and Russia conduct joint patrols of Armenia’s borders with
Turkey and Iran.

ARMENIA TO SEND 30 SERVICEMEN TO AFGHANISTAN

Interfax
Nov 6 2009
Russia

Armenian military servicemen will start participating in the NATO
(North Atlantic Treaty Organization) mission in Afghanistan from the
beginning of 2010, said NATO Secretary General’s Special Representative
to the South Caucasus Robert Simmons.

In early 2010, 30 Armenian soldiers will be sent to Afghanistan as
part of the peacekeeping mission, Simmons told a press conference
in Yerevan on Friday. Armenia is now taking part in the discussions
concerning future operations in Afghanistan, he said.

Currently, Armenian peacekeepers are serving their mission in Kosovo
and Iraq.

TBILISI SEES NO THREAT IN OPENING OF CHECKPOINT AT RUSSIAN BORDER

Interfax
Nov 6 2009
Russia

Tbilisi believes the opening of the Kazbegi-Upper Larse checkpoint
at the Georgian-Russian border will not pose a threat to Georgia’s
security.

"We are convinced that the opening of the Kazbegi-Upper Lars checkpoint
does not pose any extra military or economic threat to Georgia," Kakha
Chitaya of the Georgian Foreign Ministry told journalists on Friday.

Chitaya had held consultations on this issue with his Armenian
counterparts in Yerevan last week.

"We are prepared for opening this checkpoint after a number of
technical issues are agreed upon," he said.

Armenia is very much interested in opening the checkpoint at the
Georgian-Russian border, he said.

NATO FAVORS ARMENIAN-TURKISH DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS – ENVOY

Interfax
Nov 6 2009
Russia

NATO favors the establishment of Armenian-Turkish diplomatic relations
without preconditions, NATO Secretary General’s Special Representative
for the South Caucasus and Central Asia Robert Simmons said.

Speaking with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan in Yerevan, Simmons
also said he hoped the Armenian and Turkish parliaments would ratify
protocols on the development of relations and the establishment of
diplomatic ties, which were signed recently, the Armenian presidential
press service told Interfax.

ORANGE BECOMES ARMENIA’S THIRD MOBILE OPERATOR
BYLINE: Michael Lacquiere

World Markets Research Centre
Global Insight
November 6, 2009

The entry of a low-cost, third GSM operator will benefit the Armenian
market.

Orange has launched mobile operations in Armenia. Orange Armenia
began offering GSM services on 5 November 2009, having received its
15-year licence, also allowing for 3G service provision, 12 months
ago. The operator currently has coverage across 80% of the population,
including 500 towns and villages, and aims to offer nationwide 2G
and 3G coverage. Orange has invested 100 million euro ($148US.6
million) to date in its Armenian operations and has 300 employees
in the country. It enters a market in which penetration was 78% at
the end of 2008, with 2.447 million subscribers nationwide within a
population of around 3.2 million, including 1.1 million the capital,
Yerevan. Mobile TeleSystems (MTS)-owned K-Telecom holds an 81%
subscriber market share and VimpelCom-owned Armentel a 19% share.

IHS Global Insight Perspective

Significance: Orange enters Armenia pledging to become the
second-largest operator by subscriber numbers and promising the
imminent launch of the iPhone.

Implications: The presence of a third GSM operator in Armenia will
benefit the market, particularly given the currently lop-sided balance
of subscriber share.

Outlook: While entrance into the Armenian market ought to offer strong
subscriber uptake, it is unlikely to make any particularly notable
impact on France Telecom’s total group revenue.

Outlook and Implications

Two-Pronged Strategy: Orange has indicated that it will pursue a
two-pronged strategy in Armenia. It has made clear that it will focus
on offering affordable services, emphasising its plans to enter as a
low-cost player in a press release accompanying its service launch,
in which France Telecom chairman and chief executive officer Didier
Lombard mentioned that it would offer "unrivalled value". While the
operator has claimed that it will not pursue a price-dumping policy, it
has indicated that it aims to overtake Armentel in terms of subscriber
numbers to become the country’s second-largest operator (see Armenia:
22 September 2009: ). However, as well as offering competitive pricing,
Orange has also made it clear that it will focus largely on the mobile
internet market, having gained a 3G licence.

Such services are likely to be aimed at higher-end customers and,
with the operator also indicating that it will introduce Apple’s
iPhone in the coming months, it appears that revenue-generating
services will be on offer.

Third Operator to Benefit Market: IHS Global Insight considers that the
presence of a third GSM operator in Armenia will benefit the market,
particularly given the currently lop-sided balance of subscriber
share. As it has stated in its press release, France Telecom’s Orange
will bring "expertise and investment" to the country and this, combined
with the market presence of two financially strong Russian groups,
ought to filter benefits down to consumers. With room for organic
subscriber growth, plus the likelihood of multiple SIM ownership
bolstering penetration beyond triple-digit levels, several years of
uptake appear likely.

New Market Will Not Make Notable Impact on Group Revenues: France
Telecom is no stranger to foreign expansion, with Armenia becoming
the 30th country in which the "Orange" brand is marketed. At the end
of the third quarter of 2009, the group reported 128.8 million mobile
subscribers as customer uptake continued to grow (11.2 million added
in the quarter), but strong competition and the burden of regulation
led to quarterly earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and
amortisation (EBITDA) dropping 8% on the year to 4.56 billion euro
($6US.74 billion–see France: 29 October 2009: ). Performances have
been underwhelming both in its domestic and international markets,
and while Armenia ought to offer strong subscriber uptake, it is
unlikely to make any particularly notable impact on the group’s total
revenue of 12.7 billion euro.

DECREASE OF DEFENSE EXPENSES BY 22% IS PLANNED IN THE DRAFT BUDGET OF ARMENIA

WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
November 6, 2009 Friday
Russia

The draft state budget of Armenia makes provisions for reduction of the
money allocated for defense. The country plans to allocate 22% less for
defense than in 2009. Thus, whereas in 2009 defense expenses amounted
to 149 billion drams ($1 is equivalent to 383 Armenian drums), in
2010 the government planned to allocate 116 billion drums for defense.