Month: December 2008

ARMENIAN EX-FOREIGN MINISTER FACES TRIAL OVER UNREST
Mariam Harutunian

Agence France Presse
December 17, 2008 Wednesday

Seven top opposition supporters, including an Armenian ex-foreign
minister, will go on trial on Friday on charges of seeking to overthrow
the government in unrest this year that left 10 dead.

Prosecutors allege that former foreign minister Alexander Arzumanian,
three members of parliament and two other government critics were
seeking to "usurp state power" when they organised mass protests
in February.

Thousands of supporters of former Armenian president Levon
Ter-Petrosian rallied for 11 days to denounce President Serzh
Sarkisian’s victory in elections, before street battles broke out
with riot police.

Two police officers and eight civilians were killed in the clashes
and dozens more were injured, many from gunshot wounds. Ter-Petrossian
had finished second in the vote.

Critics allege that the prosecution is politically motivated and aimed
at stamping out opposition to Sarkisian in the ex-Soviet republic.

"Justice is not being served, we don’t have an independent
judiciary. This is a show trial," said Arzumanian’s American wife
Melissa Brown, who met the former diplomat while he was an ambassador
in Washington.

Arzumanian, Armenia’s foreign minister from 1996 to 1998, was
Ter-Petrosian’s election campaign manager.

The chief investigator in the case, Vahan Harutunian, said the evidence
against the accused was extensive and that prosecutors had interviewed
more than 500 witnesses.

"There is ample evidence to support the case, otherwise it would not
have been sent to court," he said.

"Even if they are politicians, they committed a crime, there is
evidence of that and they are legally responsible. Everyone is equal
before the law."

But lawyer Hovik Arsenian, who represents Arzumanian and two other
defendants, said the evidence against his clients was weak and that
he had no hope of getting an objective hearing.

"This is an imitation of a court case," he said.

"All of the so-called evidence in this case in fact proves the opposite
— the innocence of my clients…. It is obvious that this case has
nothing to do with criminal justice."

The trial will be closely watched abroad as a sign of whether Armenia
is meeting its democratic commitments.

During a visit to Yerevan last month, the Council of Europe’s
Commissioner for Human Rights Thomas Hammarberg raised concerns about
"seemingly artificial or politically motivated charges" against
opposition supporters, Armenian news agencies reported.

The Strasbourg-based Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe
is due in January to discuss suspending the voting rights of its
Armenian members because of concerns over democracy in the country.

The defendants each face up to 15 years in prison if convicted.

More than 140 people were arrested following the violence and 52 have
already been tried and received prison sentences of varying lengths.

Armenia — a mountainous country of about three million people
wedged between Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran and Turkey — has seen
repeated political violence and post-election protests since gaining
independence with the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991.

MORE THAN 11,000 TURKS APOLOGISE FOR ARMENIAN DEATHS

Agence France Presse
December 17, 2008 Wednesday

More than 11,000 Turks have signed an Internet petition that apologises
to Armenians for massacres that took place in 1915, in an unprecedented
move that has sparked fierce criticism.

The petition — drafted by a group of university professors and
coinciding with a time of warming relations between arch-foes
Ankara and Yerevan — relates to events nearly a century ago in the
then-Ottoman Empire.

The text of the petition states that signatories regret "that we
remain indifferent to the Great Catastrophe that Ottoman Armenians
endured… and that we deny," and offers apologies.

University professor Cengiz Aktar, a founder of the campaign for
signatures launched on the Internet Tuesday and which has been endorsed
by intellectuals and artists, hailed the effort a success.

He said he sensed that there were "many people" in Turkey who shared
his opinion of what happened. "I was right," he said.

Armenia and Turkey offer starkly different accounts of those events,
and the dispute has been a major obstacle in relations between the
two countries.

Armenians say up to 1.5 million of their kinsmen died between 1915
and 1917 in orchestrated killings during the final years of the
Ottoman Empire.

But Turkey rejects the genocide label and argues that between 300,000
and 500,000 Armenians and at least as many Turks died in civil strife.

Significantly, the petition does not use the word "genocide" —
a move that in Turkey could possibly lead to legal proceedings.

It has nethertheless drawn the ire of politicians, diplomats and even
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose government is trying to
normalise relations with Yerevan.

"I don’t accept this campaign, I will not support it and I will not
take part in it," Erdogan told reporters in remarks cited by Anatolia
news agency.

More than 20 countries, including Belgium, Canada, Poland and
Switzerland, have officially recognised the killings as genocide.

But many others, including Britain and the United States, refuse to
use the term to describe the events, mindful of relations with Turkey.

ARMENIAN BUSINESS CONFIDENCE SINKS IN Q4
Venla Sipila

World Markets Research Centre
Dec 18 2008

The newest confidence survey by the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA)
signals weakening sentiment among the country’s producers. ARKA
News reports that the economic performance indicator, which measures
overall confidence on a 100-point scale, in the fourth quarter of the
year measured 40.7, falling by a fourth in annual comparison and by
around 38% from the third quarter of 2008. Meanwhile, the business
sentiment indicator slid by some 12% year-on-year (y/y) and 16%
quarter-on-quarter (q/q), standing at 41.5 in the fourth quarter. Only
the composite consumer confidence index managed to avoid an annual
fall, rising by a marginal rate of 0.3% y/y, but also this indicator
fell from the third quarter, its level of 48.7 marking a decrease of
5.6% q/q. The CBA has conducted quarterly confidence surveys since
2005. Over 800 industrial, construction and service companies and
nearly 1,900 households were surveyed.

Significance:While consumer confidence remained virtually stable
in annual comparison, all components of the survey signal weakening
sentiment. Moreover, the values of all three components stand below
the critical 50-point mark, signalling negative sentiment. The newest
official data put Armenian GDP growth in January-October 2008 at 9.2%
y/y (see Armenia: 24 November 2008: ). After growing at double-digit
rates for the past several years, the Armenian economy finally looks
set to cool, and the official growth projection of over 9% for 2009
seems overly optimistic to us, while we do not see recession likely
in Armenia as domestic demand, still rising from a relatively low
base, should still remain strong enough to support growth at positive
rates. The global financial crisis will not have any notable direct
impact on Armenia, due to the still-undeveloped and relatively isolated
nature of its financial sector. However, indirect negative effects
from the international crisis will likely be felt as moderating
investment and current transfer inflows, while the country’s already
meagre export prospects have also weakened further.

IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT CUTS OUTLOOK ON ARMENIAN SOVEREIGN RATING TO STABLE
Venla Sipila

World Markets Research Centre
Dec 18 2008

In our fourth-quarter sovereign risk review round, we have cut
the outlook on our rating for Armenia to stable from positive,
while retaining the assessment at 55 (B+ on the generic scale). This
adjustment reflects increased uncertainty related to the outlook for
foreign currency inflows. The availability of foreign investment may
become stretched as global growth weakens and international liquidity
remains tight. Similarly, the outlook for continued strong remittance
inflows may suffer due to similar reasons, and not least because these
are to a high degree dependent on economic fortunes of Russia, where
economic outlook has recently also clearly deteriorated. Moreover,
with weakening global growth, also export prospects have deteriorated
further from an already relatively poor position. Financing of the
wide current-account gap remains dependent on investment inflows,
and thus, the risk of increasing liquidity pressures remains relevant.

Significance:Armenia’s sovereign risk rating remains supported
by the authorities so-far strong reform commitment and relatively
prudent macroeconomic policies. However, the rating signals high
payments risk. In the current challenging international financial
and economic environment, developments in Armenia’s sovereign
creditworthiness warrant close monitoring. For example, further
indications of deterioration in the liquidity gap would lead us to
shift the outlook to negative.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

ARMENIAN PROSECUTORS PREPARE FOR CLOSELY WATCHED TRIAL WITH OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS
Petr Stabrawa

World Markets Research Centre
Dec 18 2008

Attention of the international community is once again shifting
towards Armenia which prepares for tomorrow’s much-awaited
trial. Seven opposition supporters are facing charges of organising
a coup against the government in February when violent riots took
place in the country against the victory of Serzh Sargsyan in the
presidential elections. Prosecutors are pressing charges against
key government critics that include three parliament members and
the former Foreign Minister Alexander Arzumanian, claiming abundant
evidence against the accused of their intention to overthrow the
administration. The defendants, who deny any wrongdoing, are facing
15 years of imprisonment if convicted.

Significance:More than fifty people have been sent to prison in the
aftermath of the anti-government riots in February that saw the death
of ten. Ever since, questions have been raised both domestically and
internationally regarding the government’s commitment to democratic
principles. In fact, many see tomorrow’s trial as being politically
motivated, aimed at curtailing the political opposition. International
organisations, including the Council of Europe, have raised concerns
about the true motives behind the charges. The Monitoring Committee
of the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) has in
the past repeatedly urged the Armenian government to release the
political supporters of the opposition leader Lev Ter-Petrossian,
threatening to impose sanctions against the country. Currently,
PACE is considering the suspension of Armenia’s voting rights in the
Parliamentary Assembly in Strasbourg. Tomorrow’s trial could thus
pose further reputational blow to the Armenian government, plunging
the country deeper into isolation from the international community.

TURKISH PRESIDENT’S OFFICE SAYS ARMENIAN APOLOGY CAMPAIGN SIGN OF DEMOCRACY

Anadolu Agency
Dec 18 2008
Turkey

ANKARA (A.A) -The Presidential Press Centre has said that President
Abdullah Gul considered recent discussions in the Turkish public
opinion and academic circles over the events in 1915 a sign of
existence of a democratic discussion atmosphere in Turkey which was
more civilized and freer than many other countries and of Turkish
people’s reconciliation with their history and their self-confidence.

The Presidential Press Centre said in a statement on Thursday that
Gul had always clearly expressed Turkey’s ideas and proposals about
the events and Turkish-Armenian relations on numerous occasions and
in many international platforms.

"During Gul’s term in office as the foreign minister and deputy
prime minister, Turkey proposed Armenia to establish a committee of
historians to examine Turkish and Armenian archives. Gul advocated
the proposal on the international level," it said.

The centre also expressed President Gul’s profound regret that the
issue was distorted for some political purposes although his views
were well-known. Gul was criticized by the opposition parties.

A group of people issued an apology on the internet for the events
of 1915 boosting a nationwide discussion.

Turkish Premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday that he did not
accept or support the campaign recently launched by a group of Turkish
intellectuals and academicians aiming to apologize to Armenians for
the incidents of 1915.

"They might have committed such a crime themselves, as they
are apologizing now. Republic of Turkey does not have such a
concern. One can apologize if there is a crime necessitating such
an apology. Neither my country, nor my nation has such concerns,"
Erdogan said, replying to questions following his meeting with
Bulgarian President Georgi Parvanov in Istanbul.

Erdogan said that it was unacceptable to support such a campaign just
because it was launched by intellectuals.

Armenia and Turkey do not have diplomatic relations and their shared
border has been closed since 1993 when Turkey protested Armenia’s
occupation of the Upper Karabakh.

In September, President Gul visited Armenia in to watch a World Cup
qualifying match as a goodwill gesture.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

ARKADY TER-TADEVOSYAN: AZERBAIJAN NEEDS 200,000 SERVICEMEN TO START WAR

Azg
Dec 17 2008
Armenia

According to the Armenian National Statistical Service, the birth rate
in 1990-1992 stood at around 70,000. In 1995 it was 48,000. The annual
birth rate was 37,000 in 2006, and it is growing at a rate of 2,000
each year. According to the Armenian military commissar, about 40,000
boys were born in 1990. Up to 70 per cent of conscription resources
are drafted for the mandatory military service every year. "The other
30 per cent are students, those with health problems and others,"
Armenia’s military commissar Kamo Kochunts says. The Defence Ministry
has calculated that the number of conscripts would be 11,000 in
2016. "We need to maintain today’s number of our army," Kochunts says.

"Fifty thousand troops are serving in the Armenian army today, another
20,000 are serving in the defence army of the Nagornyy Karabakh
republic. The Azerbaijani army has 125,000 servicemen. Azerbaijan
has calculated that they need up to 200,000 troops to start a
war. They can bring their army to 140,000 in the coming years,"
Arkady Ter-Tadevosyan, a commander in the Artsakh [Karabakh] war, says.

To prevent the army’s combat capacity downfall due to demographic
reasons, the Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of Education and
Science have drafted amendments to three laws – on military service,
on education and on higher education and post-graduate studies. Sedrak
Sedrakyan, head of the Defence Ministry’s legal department, says:
"According to the amendments, all boys, regardless of whether they
are students or not, will have to serve in the Army when reaching
the age of 18."

"The positive effect of these amendments would be short-term. Science
would suffer. The development of sciences requires an uninterrupted
process. We would have a less educated society because not every
young man continues education after being discharged from the army,"
Heritage party faction member Vardan Khachatryan says.

CHARGING PERSONS FOR POLITICAL MOTIVATION IS UNACCEPTABLE: PACE MONITORING COMMITTEE DRAFT RESOLUTION READS

Noyan Tapan

Dec 18, 2008

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 18, NOYAN TAPAN. The Council of Europe Armenian
Office has spread the following press release on the results of PACE
Monitoring Committee December 17 sitting: "Declaring it "unacceptable"
that persons could be charged and deprived of their liberty for
political motivation in Armenia in relation to the events of 1 and
2 March 2008, the Monitoring Committee of the Parliamentary Assembly
of the Council of Europe (PACE) yesterday recommended suspending the
voting rights of Armenia’s eight-member delegation to the Assembly
until the authorities "have clearly demonstrated their political will
to resolve this issue." The co-rapporteurs would visit the country
in January 2009, with a view to reporting back to the Committee on
the first day of the January 2009 part-session on any progress with
respect to the release of these persons.

In two earlier resolutions, the Assembly had made several demands
following the post-electoral violence of March 2008, including the
holding of an independent, transparent and credible inquiry into
what happened, and the release of persons detained on "seemingly
artificial and politically motivated charges" in connection with
those events. In its draft resolution, adopted yesterday in Paris,
the Monitoring Committee welcomed the Armenian President’s creation of
a fact-finding group of experts to look into the March events as an
important step towards meeting the Assembly’s demands, but cautioned
that its credibility would depend on how it conducts its work.

They also expressed satisfaction at efforts to initiate reforms in
the media, electoral legislation and the judiciary.

However, the parliamentarians said that "notwithstanding positive
developments in some areas" the limited progress with regard to the
release of the above mentioned persons meant the Armenian delegation
should be deprived of its vote, if no further progress is reached in
this request before the January 2009 PACE plenary session.

The Assembly is due to decide on the matter on Thursday 29 January
during its forthcoming Winter plenary Session (26 – 30 January 2009)."

INSURANCE OF LIABILITY PROCEEDING FROM USE OF MOTOR TRANSPORT TO BECOME COMPULSORY IN ARMENIA

Noyan Tapan

Dec 18, 2008

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 18, NOYAN TAPAN. At the December 17 sitting, the
Armenian government appoved the draft law on compulsory insurance of
liability proceeding from the use of motor transport.

According to the RA Government Information and PR Department, based
on the draft law, the government also approved the bills on additions
to the RA Customs Code, the RA Law on Central Bank of Armenia, the RA
Law on Insurance and Insurance Activity, the RA Law on Registration
of Legal Entities, the RA Law on Ensuring the Safety of Road Traffic,
the RA Law on Motor Transport, and the RA Law on Personal Data. The
indicated bills will be submitted to the RA National Assembly in
order envisaged by law.

RA MINISTRY OF DIASPORA TO HAVE OFF-BUDGET BANK ACCOUNT "ARMENIAN DIASPORA"

Noyan Tapan

Dec 18, 2008

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 18, ARMENIANS TODAY – NOYAN TAPAN. At the December 17
sitting, the Armenian government allowed the staff of the RA Ministry
of Diaspora to open an off-budget bank account "Armenian Diaspora"
at local units of the RA Ministry of Finance – under the RA Law on
the Budgetary System of the Republic of Armenia.

According to the RA Government Information and PR Department, it
was established that incomes of the given account will form from
donations of benefactors. Expenditures from this account will be
made by an estimate agreed on with the minister of finance with the
aim of financing Diaspora-related programs by order of the minister
of Diaspora.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress