ANKARA: "Joint committee" of historians on Armenian debate

Today’s Zaman , Turkey
Dec 20 2008

"Joint committee" of historians on Armenian debate

Debates about genocide claims would be routine agenda items of April
every year. With the "apology" campaign launched by a group of
intellectuals, we have made an early start this year. There is now
complete confusion.

The president, the prime minister, intellectuals, columnists,
ambassadors and political party leaders are all involved in the
debate. For some, this campaign is a sign of democracy and free
thinking in Turkey. For others, it is clear treason.

The early start of this debate is actually a good development. Indeed,
this year’s picture in Washington is different. In April, Barack
Obama, who promised to recognize the genocide during his election
campaign, will be residing in the White House. Moreover, the Democrats
dominate both houses of Congress. This debate may serve as an occasion
for us to start to think about what possible measures we can take
against the passage of a genocide bill, which was prevented by the US
administration at the last moment last year.

But, there is another point that these discussions have revealed. As
is known, the most progressive proposal made by Turkey against the
genocide claims until now was to suggest that a joint historical
committee should be established to investigate these claims. Three
years ago, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent a letter to
then-Armenian President Robert Kocharyan, officially proposing the
establishment of a joint commission to investigate into the
developments and incidents of 1915. Erdogan’s historic letter stressed
that "Turkish and Armenian peoples, which have shared a common history
and neighbouring geography in a sensitive region, have lived together
peacefully for many years, but have disagreements and different
assessments about a certain part of their common history." In other
words, the problem was that Turks and Armenians have different views
about the incidents of 1915. In order to eliminate this difference,
historians from both countries would come together and find out what
really happened in 1915.

This proposal was not only supported by the government or the ruling
Justice and Development Party (AK Party). Holding a special session to
discuss the genocide claims on April 13, 2005, Parliament issued a
unanimously adopted declaration. Supportive of this historical
committee proposal, this declaration suggested, "The proposal for
setting up a joint committee of historians from Turkey and Armenia
should be taken into consideration."

However, the "apology" campaign, which has gathered support from many
respected intellectuals, and the reactions to it have shown that there
are disagreements not only between Turks and Armenians, but also among
Turks concerning the incidents of 1915. There are distinguished
figures both in the supporters and opponents of this campaign. If we
have a sneak preview of more than 10,000 supporters: Ali Bayramoglu,
Ihsan Dagi, Cengiz Candar, Atilla Eralp, Enis Batur, Omer Laciner,
Omer Marda, Leyla Ipekci, Huseyin Hatemi, Oral Calislar, Hasan Cemal
and the list goes on. So many people cannot be just labelled as
traitors or terrorists and ignored. A number of columnists who
criticize the campaign’s wording or timing refrain from being
disrespectful towards these people.

Moreover, the difference of opinion is not limited to
intellectuals. There is also a big difference between President Gul’s
perspective of the campaign and that of Prime Minister
Erdogan. Retired Ambassador Temel Iskit supports the campaign while
retired ambassadors Sukru Elekdag and Korkmaz Haktanir have signed a
counter declaration.

When people start to personally label each other as traitors,
terrorists, enemies of freedom or fascists, this leads to a dangerous
division. The apology petition may be criticized for many respects. We
may say that it fails to mention the attacks conducted by Armenians
against Turkey in the past or that it does not touch on the Armenian
atrocities in Nagorno-Karabakh or Hocali or that it ignored the part
Western countries played in pitting Armenians and Turks against each
other or that in the same period, millions of Turks were expelled from
the Caucasus or the Balkans or that the thawing of ice that started
with the initiative of two presidents will be risked. But, it is
dubious whether these will help us eliminate confusion of the mind or
change others’ perceptions about it.

In my opinion, the best way to solve both problems is to immediately
establish the joint committee of historians that was approved by
Parliament. Halil Inalcik, Sukru Hanioglu, Ilber Ortayli and other
respected Turkish historians will join this committee to which
distinguished historians of the world will be invited. Another call is
made to the Armenian side, but even if they do not send historians to
the committee, the committee will start to work and produce a report
whose credibility cannot be disputed by anyone. This move will not
only evidence our sincerity and courage in the international arena,
but also prevent this heartrending and dangerous division among
ourselves.

ANKARA: France says no need to worry about Turkey-EU relns in 2009

Anadolu Agency, Turkey
Dec 19 2008

France says no need to worry about Turkey-EU relations in 2009

Brussels, France’s Secretary of State for EU affairs Bruno Le Marie
said on Friday [19 December] that "there was nothing to worry about,"
regarding EU-Turkey relations in 2009.

Speaking during EU’s 6th Accession Conference, Le Marie said EU
expected Turkey to proceed with the reform process, be loyal to
neighbourly relations and fulfil its commitments regarding Cyprus.

He said Turkey bore high strategic importance for EU noting that it
contributed to EU’s stability by taking up an active role in solution
of regional problems and acting in line with EU’s foreign policy for
the most part.

Le Marie praised the role played by Turkey in the conflict in Georgia,
Iraq, Middle East peace process, and in indirect talks between Israel
and Syria. He said Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul’s visit to Armenia
had a symbolic significance and expressed their hope that this process
would result in complete normalization of relations between the two
countries.

Also speaking during the conference EU Commissioner for Enlargement
Olli Rehn said EU needed to act fairly towards Turkey and be loyal to
its commitments.

Rehn pointed out that it was important for Turkey to carry out the
reform process after two tough years and said they expected Turkey to
meet the criteria in chapters regarding taxation, social policy and
employment, environment and competition which were likely to be opened
in the near future.

Rehn said there was a positive atmosphere recently in EU-Turkey
relations noting that the conflict in Georgia highlighted Turkey’s
strategic importance.

ANKARA: Turkish FM says Armenia apology campaign could harm talks

Anadolu Agency, Turkey
Dec 19 2008

Turkish Foreign Ministry says Armenia apology campaign could harm
talks

Ankara, Turkish Foreign Ministry said Friday [19 December] that it
defended the memory of its martyrs (assassinated by Armenian
terrorists) and announced that it disapproved the campaign recently
launched to apologize from Armenians for the 1915 incidents.

Replying to a question, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Burak Ozugergin
said Turkey’s stance on Armenian allegations regarding incidents of
1915 was known by everybody noting that Foreign Minister Ali Babacan
had also expressed Turkey’s approach earlier in the day.

"Besides, our ministry have given many martyrs (to Armenian terrorism)
therefore the issue is very delicate for our ministry and also for
entire Turkey. There is also ongoing talks between Azerbaijan and
Armenia. Such debates will not be beneficial for anyone, plus it could
harm the ongoing talks," Babacan said.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Turkey’s president steps into row

Turkey’s president steps into row
By Delphine Strauss in Ankara

FT
December 18 2008 23:37

Turkey’s president Abdullah Gul intervened on Thursday to defuse an
explosive debate over a campaign by Turkish writers apologising for the
massacres of ethnic Armenians in the last years of the Ottoman empire.

More than 13,000 people have added their names to the website
www.ozurdiliyoruz (`we apologise’) launched on Monday by a group of
intellectuals, in a sign of changing attitudes to one of the most
sensitive episodes in Turkey’s past.

The campaign has angered nationalists.

Prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan fiercely criticised the initiative
on Wednesday, saying: `It will not have any benefit other than stirring
up trouble, disturbing our peace and undoing the steps which have been
taken.’

But the events of 1915 ` the delicate term used by Turkish diplomats `
remain a subject of bitter contention between Armenians, who say they
suffered genocide, and Turkey, which contends thousands of Turks also
died during the final years of the Ottoman empire and denies systematic
planning.

But Mr Gul distanced himself from that criticism on Thursday, saying in
a statement that while he had worked to promote Turkey’s official
position abroad, the public debate showed Turks now felt `more
self-confident and at peace with their history’.

The diff erence in tone between the president and prime minister may
fuel speculation that relations are cooling between the two men,
long-standing political allies before Mr Gul’s election as president
in July 2007.

Mr Gul won international praise in September when he signalled
rapprochement with Armenia by attending a football match between the
national sides in Yerevan ` the first visit by a Turkish head of state.

Cengiz Aktar, one of the organisers of the online apology, said denial
of the bloodshed of 1915 was `a founding myth of modern Turkey’.

The text of the apology does not use the word genocide, referring
instead to `the Great Catastrophe’, but its implication that modern
Turks bear responsibility for the actions of the Ottoman regime has
provoked furious protest.

Opposition politicians branded the campaign `treason’ and `degeneracy’;
retired diplomats, remembering colleagues killed by Armenian activists
in the 1970s, issued their own declaration; and rival websites such as
(`we don’t apologise’) have sprung up.

Sinan Ulgen, head of the EDAM think-tank, said the debate could hinder
talks, since Armenians would take a tougher line if they thought public
opinion in Turkey had shifted, but the nationalist outcry would in fact
leave less room for concessions.

`We need to give as free rein to the negotiations as we can. . .
unhindered by this sort of public debate which will backfire,’ he
said.

But the campaign reflects frustration among liberals that little has
changed since the murder in 2007 of Hrant Dink, the Armenian
journalist, which at the time sparked an outpouring of sympathy and
hopes of reconciliation.

On Tuesday, the European Court of Human Rights ruled against Turkey in
two cases dating back to the 1950s and 60s, ordering it to return
properties seized from two Armenian foundations or pay compensation
totalling ?¬875,000 (£830,000).

www.ozurdilemiyoruz.com/

Palestinian government forced to save birthplace of Christ

Palestinian government forced to save birthplace of Christ as monks
squabble over restoration
The monks who tend the grotto under the Byzantine basilica of the
Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem should enjoy lives of quiet,
meditative service to the lofty ideals of their faith.

By Tim Butcher in Bethlehem and Angus McDowall

Daily Telegraph/UK
Last Updated: 6:53PM GMT 20 Dec 2008

When they wash the grotto’s marbled altar and guard its silver lamps,
they are watching over the cradle of the Christian world: the exact
spot where Jesus Christ is believed to have been born.

Yet despite this sacred trust, a ten-year row between the different
sects that manage the church has forced the Palestinian government’s
Muslim leaders to intervene to prevent the basilica’s ancient lead roof
from collapsing on its mosaic floors.

Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian national authority, has
taken the unprecedented step of issuing a decree that the church must
be repaired.

The move comes as the venerable but rather run-down building next to
Manger Square in the centre of Bethlehem braces itself for its busiest
time of year, when tens of thousands of pilgrims, including many from
overseas, will converge there for a series of services.

"It is excellent news for Christians, not just here in the Holy Land,
but all over the world," said Issa Kassissieh, a Christian member of
the Palestinian government. "The Church of the Nativity represents much
to the Palestinians as well as to the Christian world."

So tattered has the roof become that pilgrims inside the church were
forced, during heavy rainstorms, to shelter under umbrellas and watch
water cascade down the Crusade-era murals adorning the basilica walls.

But while the rafters rotted above them, the Armenian Orthodox,
Franciscan and Greek Orthodox monks who share guardianship of the site
fell to blows over the territory controlled by each sect.

In one incident, in 2007, the long-bearded monks scuffled, using fists,
brooms and iron rods, simply because one group had tried to wash parts
of a wall claimed by another.

That fight, however, was nothing compared to the dispute over the
maintenance of the church. According to the World Monuments Fund, a
United Nations body that listed the church as one of the 100 most
endangered sites in the world, the basilica’s custodians have failed to
collaborate on its repair for almost 1,000 years.

Furthermore, a botched repair, organised unilaterally by the Greeks a
few years ago, only made things worse by accelerating the rate at which
roof timbers rotted.

The Palestine Exploration Fund, a British charity founded in the 19th
century to preserve the monuments of the Holy Land, described the
roof’s condition as "nothing short of a scandal".

Discreetly announced in a Jerusalem paper, Mr Abbas’ decree was careful
to say the three groups would be fully consulted by a special committee
set up by the Palestinian authorities.

But there was no hiding the sense of frustration at the bickering
between the sects that had threatened a shrine which is one of the
greatest tourist attractions in the Holy Land.

His intervention, however, appears to have worked where religious
harmony did not: the heads of the three churches have agreed to put
aside their squabbles and accept the planned renovation.

Architectural and archaeological experts expressed their delight at the
news of the presidential decree.

"That is really wonderful, a very positive step after so many decades
of nothing," said Rupert Chapman, of the Middle East department at the
British Museum.

But while the decree represents progress, the Palestinian government is
aware of the acute sensitivities involved and wants to make sure that
no one country, organisation or faith takes control of the work.

To that end, a special "blind" fund will be set up, and donors will be
able to contribute funds anonymously to pay for a full survey of the
church and the eventual restoration.

Theophilos III, patriarch of the local Greek orthodox church which
traces its roots back to the earliest Byzantine Christians in the Holy
Land, said preserving the church was of critical importance. "This Holy
Place is associated not just with the birth of Jesus Christ but with
the later birth and growth of Christianity," he said from his office in
the patriarchate inside the Old City of Jerusalem.

"It played a central role in the history of Christianity and that role
has gone on for two thousand years until even today."

Unilateral action by the local authority is not unprecedented in
Bethlehem to get around problems between the three Christian
communities.

In the early 1920s, the local British military commander responsible
for the Holy Land, Sir Ronald Storrs, decided to take action after the
three groups could not agree on an unsightly wall built by the Greeks
in front of the altar at the Church of the Nativity.

He simply invoked his authority as the local governor and had the wall
taken down.

Visitors today have Sir Ronald’s chutzpah to thank for the unblocked
view of the altar. And future visitors who will no longer need
umbrellas inside the church might come to owe a similar debt to Mr
Abbas.

Des intellectuels turcs demandent pardon a l’Armenie

Le Monde, France
20 décembre 2008 samedi

Des intellectuels turcs demandent pardon à l’Arménie

Quatre intellectuels issus de la gauche turque ont lancé, lundi 15
décembre sur Internet, une pétition demandant pardon aux " frères et
soeurs arméniens " pour la " Grande Catastrophe " dont ceux-ci furent
les victimes en 1915. Autrement dit, le génocide. En quatre jours, le
texte a été signé par 13 000 Turcs.

Cette initiative marque un nouveau pas dans le rapprochement entre la
Turquie et l’Arménie, après la visite, en septembre, du président turc
Abdullah Gül dans la capitale arménienne, Erevan.

Cependant, comme on pouvait s’y attendre, la pétition a provoqué la
colère de nombreux Turcs. " Je ne l’accepte pas, a déclaré le premier
ministre, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Nous n’avons commis aucun crime et
nous n’avons pas besoin de nous excuser. "

Turquie Peu apres sa mise en ligne sur Internet, …

Le Figaro, France
Mercredi 17 Décembre 2008

TURQUIE Peu après sa mise en ligne sur Internet, une pétition à propos
du génocide de 1915 avait déjà recueilli près de 8 000 signatures.

Des intellectuels turcs s’excusent auprès des Arméniens;

par Marchand, Laure

« MA conscience n’accepte pas l’insensibilité et la négation du »Grand
Désastre* qu’ont subi les Arméniens ottomans en 1915. Je rejette cette
injustice et, personnellement, je partage les sentiments et la douleur
de mes frères arméniens, je leur demande pardon. » Lancé lundi par
deux cents personnalités turques, ce texte d’excuses montre que de
plus en plus de Turcs sont contre la chape de plomb qui pèse sur les
massacres commis pendant la Première Guerre mondiale. « Il s’agit
d’une revendication démocratique par rapport à l’histoire, pour
reconnaître la peine des Arméniens et en finir avec l’amnésie de
l’identité turque, explique le journaliste Ali Bayramoglu, un des
promoteurs de cette initiative. Comme n’importe quel peuple, les Turcs
doivent également être responsables des malheurs qui se sont produits
dans leur société. » Cet ami de Hrant Dink, le journaliste d’origine
arménienne abattu à Istanbul en 2007, précise que chaque mot du texte
a été pesé afin que le plus grand nombre de personnes possible puisse
s’y reconnaître : « Le terme»génocide*aurait rendu l’identification
difficile pour certains. »

« Travail de mémoire »
L’État turc rejette le caractère génocidaire des massacres mais nie
aussi que des centaines de milliers d’Arméniens – de 800 000 à 1,5
million selon les estimations – ont péri en 1915. Tout au plus
seulement 300 000, et autant de Turcs, sont morts pendant des émeutes
lors de l’effondrement de l’Empire ottoman, ou de maladies. « Des
civils arméniens ont été contraints à une déportation massive, c’est
certain, estime l’écrivain Nedim Gürsel, un des signataires. Il faut
mener un travail de mémoire, l’État devrait présenter des excuses. »
Cette démarche de reconnaissance a immédiatement déclenché une
contre-offensive des tenants de la version officielle. Soixante
ambassadeurs à la retraite ont dénoncé une campagne « injuste, fausse
et nuisible aux intérêts de la nation ». « Personne n’a le droit
d’insulter nos ancêtres », a tonné Devlet Bahceli, le leader du Parti
de l’action nationaliste. Mais le président de la République, Abdullah
Gül, qui s’est rendu en septembre à Erevan, a déclaré que chacun
pouvait exprimer son opinion librement.

Des intellectuels turcs demandent pardon pour le massacre armenien

Le Figaro, France
Mercredi 17 Décembre 2008

Des intellectuels turcs demandent pardon pour le massacre arménien

TURQUIE. La campagne intervient à un moment crucial du rapprochement
entre les autorités des deux pays, qui négocient une réouverture de
leur frontière.

par Nicole Pope, Istanbul

Plusieurs milliers de Turcs ont signé une déclaration par le biais
d’Internet, demandant pardon aux Arméniens pour les massacres de
1915. «Ma conscience n’accepte pas le négationnisme et l’indifférence
envers la Grande Catastrophe subie par les Arméniens ottomans en
1915», déclarent les signataires. «Pour ma part, je refuse cette
injustice, je partage les émotions et la douleur de mes frères
arméniens, et je m’excuse auprès d’eux.»

L’initiative, lancée par 200 intellectuels turcs, vise à briser le
tabou officiel sur les événements sanglants qui se sont déroulés en
Anatolie. Parmi les pétitionnaires figurent notamment le codirigeant
du parti vert allemand Cem Özdemir, l’écrivain Nedim Gürsel et la
sociologue Nilüfer Göle.

«Il fallait sortir des pétitions classiques, qui sont ouvertes
quelques jours et sont toujours signées par les mêmes personnes»,
explique Cengiz Aktar, un des organisateurs du projet, professeur à
l’université Bahçesehir. «Nous voulions une initiative de longue
haleine, qui va durer un an, pour que les gens de la rue puissent y
participer.»

Alors que les pronostics les plus optimistes envisageaient 10000
signatures à l’issue d’un an, près de 8000 pétitionnaires avaient déjà
démontré leur soutien 36 heures après le lancement de la pétition le
15 décembre.

Cette démarche intervient à un moment crucial, puisque les autorités
turques et arméniennes sont en train de négocier les termes d’une
reprise éventuelle des relations diplomatiques.

Le président turc Abdullah Gül s’était rendu à Erevan en septembre
dernier à l’invitation de son homologue arménien Serge Sarkissian,
pour assister au match de qualification pour le Mondial 2010 qui
opposait les deux équipes nationales de football. Cette visite, la
première d’un président turc depuis l’indépendance de l’Arménie, avait
marqué le début du dégel entre les deux pays.

La réouverture de la frontière, fermée depuis 1993, est au centre des
pourparlers en cours, qui portent également sur la formation d’une
commission mixte d’historiens turcs et arméniens pour examiner les
événements de 1915.

Les autorités turques admettent que des massacres et la déportation
d’Arméniens ont eu lieu en Anatolie durant la Première Guerre
mondiale, mais elles rejettent la thèse du génocide et affirment que
de nombreux Turcs ont également trouvé la mort durant cette
période. Selon les Turcs, environ 300000 ont péri en 1915. La diaspora
arménienne, elle, place ce chiffre à près de 1,5 million. Quelque
60000 Arméniens vivent en Turquie.

Le contentieux entre l’Azerbaïdjan turcophone et Erevan était
également un obstacle de taille au rapprochement turco-arménien, mais
Ankara semble avoir adouci sa position. «La normalisation des
relations turco-arméniennes aurait un impact positif sur les
discussions entre l’Azerbaïdjan et l’Arménie sur le Nagorno-Karabakh»,
déclarait récemment le ministre turc des Affaires étrangères, Ali
Babacan.

Au-delà des démarches diplomatiques, la déclaration de pardon confirme
l’érosion progressive des tabous érigés par l’idéologie officielle en
Turquie.

L’assassinat, en janvier 2007, du journaliste turc d’origine
arménienne Hrant Dink, abattu par un jeune ultranationaliste, avait
causé de fortes réactions. Plus de 100000 Turcs étaient descendus dans
la rue pour manifester leur solidarité.

Au cours des dernières années, de nombreux Turcs ont découvert un
passé et une diversité culturelle, qui figure peu dans leurs manuels
scolaires.

Dans Le livre de ma grand-mère, qui avait rencontré un succès
populaire, l’avocate Fethiye Çetin avait raconté l’histoire de son
aïeule, sauvée et élevée par des Turcs, qui n’avait révélé ses
origines arméniennes qu’à la fin de sa vie. Une exposition de cartes
postales ottomanes, documentant la vie des Arméniens d’Anatolie, avait
attiré une foule de visiteurs. La tragédie de 1915 avait également été
discutée publiquement lors d’une conférence très controversée, qui
s’était tenue à Istanbul en 2005.

Ces développements sont cependant loin de faire l’unanimité en
Turquie, où le nationalisme est toujours à fleur de peau et l’Etat
maintient sa rigidité.

Un groupe de diplomates à la retraite s’est publiquement opposé à la
déclaration de pardon, affirmant que la démarche était «injuste,
erronée et contraire aux intérêts de la nation».

People in panic: prices getting higher

Panorama.am

14:39 20/12/2008

PEOPLE IN PANIC: PRICES GETTING HIGHER

`For the first time ever the prices in the local market decreased in
the eve of New Year, like in other European countries,’ a week ago
announced the President of the State Committee for Economic
Competition Ashot Shahnazaryan.

But according to the results of the monitoring conducted by
Panorama.am reporter in these days the prices of eggs, meat, cheese,
dairy products and other food became higher. If a few days ago beef
was 1700-1800 drams, now the price is highered ` 1900-2000, pork meat
was 2500-3000, now it costs 3500-4000. `Lori’ cheese cost 1500-1600
drams, now it costs 1800 drams.

According to the committee representative they continue their
monitoring. What will the committee find out, this is a big question?

Our monitoring showed that people is in panic. Some did not get their
salaries; the others did not get their money which relatives send from
abroad. They keep going shops to get acquainted with the new prices
which get higher every day.

Source: Panorama.am

S-300s for Iran: an argument for peace

S-300s for Iran: an argument for peace

15:46 | 19/ 12/ 2008

MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti military commentator Ilya Kramnik) – The
likelihood of Russia supplying S-300 surface-to-air systems to Iran has
always been a headache for the United States and its allies. For
several years the media has reported the conclusion of a contract or
even the actual shipment of long-range air defense missiles to Iran. As
a rule, these reports came from Iranian sources and were later denied
by Russia.

On December 17, 2008, RIA Novosti, quoting confidential sources,
reported on its website that Russia is to deliver S-300 surface-to-air
systems to Iran. Which, based on previous experience, is most likely
true. How will the balance of strength change in this region if Iran
really gets the systems? (Russian mobile surface-to-air missile systems
– Image gallery)

Before considering an answer, it is necessary to see what weapons
Iran’s armed forces will receive and in what quantities.

It has been repeatedly stated that Iran expects to get five battalions
of S-300PMUs, or up to 20 systems (60 launchers), depending on the
make-up of a battalion. Each of the launchers carries four 48N6E
missiles (48N6E2s with the PMU-2 mobile launchers) with a range of 150
kilometers (up to 200 kilometers for the 48N6E2s). Each launch system
consists of three launchers and is capable of engaging six targets at
the same time, aiming 12 missiles at them. One battalion consisting of
four systems is, therefore, capable of dealing with 24 aircraft
simultaneously. After changing position and replenishing ammunition, it
can be quickly re-deployed for repulsing a repeat raid.

It should be remembered that S-300 missiles themselves need to be
protected – for this purpose Iran can use Tor-M1 surface-to-air
missiles (SAMs) and Chinese FM-80s. Coupled with S-300s, these
short-range missiles can set up a credible air defense system able to
protect the facility covered and itself. In this tandem, S-300s will
act as a long arm to shoot down sophisticated targets at long
distances, while close-in weapons will protect the facility and S-300s
from cruise missiles, aircraft and UAVs that break through.

Five battalions of S-300 SAMs will contribute significantly not only to
the protection of designated facilities, but also to the defense
capability of the country as a whole. Deliveries of new SAMs will make
it possible to move old systems to other parts of the country,
increasing its air defense density. Should Iran have time to deploy the
Russian systems and to control the grouping, the overall damage from
air defenses may exceed the threshold acceptable to Iran’s potential
opponents.

S-300s do not, of course, guarantee Iran’s invincibility or
invulnerability. The U.S. Air Force and naval aviation can, if
necessary, break through even these defenses. At issue is the time
required and acceptable level of loss. Ultimately, the question may
prove to be the main argument in the hands of those opposed to a
military operation against Iran and remove an Iran-U.S. armed conflict
from the agenda for a long time.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s and do not
necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.