Developments in Iran Worry Karabakh
02-03-2007 13:11:06 – KarabakhOpen
The recent developments in Iran worry Karabakh which has an extended
border with Iran. Does Karabakh track the developments related to the
Iranian issue and what consequences they might have for Karabakh?
KarabakhOpen.com asked this question to Vahram Atanesyan, chair of the
Committee of External Relations.
For this issue, I think even in Iran they are not well-informed. I
mean no one in Iran can tell if the U.S. will attack or will only make
threats. In any case, the Islamic regime in Iran will not be against
negotiations with the United States if the White House makes a
negotiation effort, which would also prefer a peace settlement of the
problem, and is most probably waiting until Iran loses its nerve. I do
not think the United States will use force to untie the Iranian
knot. It is possible that the U.N. will apply economic and political
sanctions against Iran, which will not be used at full for separate
reasons.
I think it is not right to say that the developments in Iran will have
direct influence on the Karabakh settlement. The settlement would be
affected by the recent close ties between Azerbaijan and European
states related to the spread of the Azerbaijani energy towards Europe,
as well as the visible close relations between NATO and Azerbaijan
rather. Russia’s aspirations for engagement in Azerbaijan’s energy
projects cause more worries.
Answering KarabakhOpen.com question, the head of the political
department of the NKR MFA Irina Beglaryan said:
Certainly, the NKR government and people track the developments
related to Iran’s nuclear program. Iran is our neighbor, moreover, it
is one of the few friendly states in the region, so no possible
negative development is in the interests of Nagorno-Karabakh
Republic. We believe that the Iranian government and the international
community will make sufficient efforts for a peace settlement of the
problem through consultations and cooperation over working out a
decision which will be acceptable for both.
– The Armenian and Iranian relations develop by an interesting
scenario. On the one hand, both Iran and Armenia are Russia’s
allies. On the other hand, Iran is believed to be the opponent of the
United States, which is the greatest partner of Armenia. Yet Iran is
the only country, which enables Armenia to diversify its sources and
transportation of energy. There is no alternative to the friendly
relations between Iran and Armenia, and even the U.S., striving for
economic sanctions against the Iranian regime, cannot offer anything
better to Armenia.
For Nagorno Karabakh, Iran is the only non-hostile country. The
extended border practically does not work, and trade between Iran and
Karabakh takes place via Armenia, which is not lucrative. One of the
main Iranian products widely consumed in both Armenia and Karabakh is
bitumen. With high rates of road building in both Armenian states this
product is highly demanded. Levon Abrahamyan, the president of the
Iran-Armenia Trade Chamber told the news reporter of A1+ that there
are no political problems for importing bitumen to Armenia.
`During the visit of President Kocharyan to Iran agreement was reached
on supplying 20 thousand tons of bitumen to Armenia through the
embassy. Iran does not have problems with supplying bitumen to
Armenia, the problem is the production capacity, and our bitumen is
exported even to Vietnam,’ said the Iranian entrepreneur. Lavon
Abrahamyan and 25 other Iranian entrepreneurs took part in the
Iran-Armenia Trade Forum. The head of the group, the Iranian deputy
minister of trade Babak Afgayi informed his Armenian colleagues that
his country is likely to sell off a number of state enterprises,
including banks, insurance companies. In other words, moves are made
towards market economy. Thereby the Iranian official made an
interesting offer to the Armenian investors.
Apparently, Iran is likely to promote relations with Armenia. The
evidence to this is that during the meeting of the Armenian defense
minister Serge Sargsyan and the Iranian ambassador to Armenia Ali Reza
Hakikian the timing of the upcoming visit of the head of the Iranian
Supreme Council for National Security Ali Larijani to Armenia was
discussed. Considering that Ali Larijani is one of the authoritative
persons in his country, we should expect a turnaround in the
geo-strategic situation in the region.
– /PanARMENIAN.Net/ The American Army can strike on Iran till April of
this year, reported Kuwaiti newspaper The Arab Times appealing to
informed sources. According to it, the U.S. attack will be launched
from sea with the support of anti-missile defense System `Patriot’. It
will allow the U.S. not to jeopardize its army and to restrain any
possibility for reaction from any country in the Persian Gulf. `The
American forces in Iraq and other countries of the region will be
protected from any Iranian missile strike with the help of advanced
missile system `Patriot’,’ told the source the Arab Times, Newsru.com
reports. The main targets will become objects of oil and nuclear
industries. The U.S. and its allies guarantee the new military
campaign in Middle East will not result in ecological catastrophe in
the region. According to the source, the United States has chosen
April, since the British Prime Minister Tony Bleer told, it will be
his last month in the post. `The U.S.A. must take measures towards
Iran and Syria till April of 2007,’ cites the publication the words of
Bleer. Washington has already launched preparations for the possible
strike on Iran. Currently several warships have been sent to the
Persian Gul f and several will be sent till the end of the month.
As was reported earlier, like in Iraq, as a cause for military actions
in Iran will serve nuclear weapons, though they will be limited with
strikes on some military factories. According to the source, the Bush
Administration supposes that after overthrowing the Iranian regime a
new balance of forces can be established in the region. Thus, the
American authorities think that it will calm down the situation in
Iraq and will promote the democratic process in the country.
In his part, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadi Nejad stated the U.S.A.
will not have courage to attack Iran.
– PanARMENIAN.Net/ American troops are concentrating near the Persian
Gulf, which arouses anxiety of possible military actions by the
U.S. against Iran. More and more American tankers are making for the
Persian Gulf. Two aircraft-carrier groups and marines landing warships
arrived to the region. `Patriot’ anti-aircraft missiles are
transported to Kuwait, most probably for the fight against Iranian
aviation, the BBC Russian service reports.
Pentagon specialist on military planning Sam Gardner said that signs
of preparing a massive military operation are evident. `The United
States is on the way to strike Iran. All necessary elements are being
deployed on battle positions. I don’t think that final decision to
strike Iran is made, though. We see either preparations for such a
decision, or efforts to intimidate Iranians,’ he said.
Analysts say that by doing this Washington tries to make Tehran stop
interference practice in Iraq, because of which, as the U.S. leaders
think, American soldiers die there every day. The U.S. also wants to
make Iran refuse from efforts to produce nuclear weapons. In his part
Tehran categorically rejects all accusations, insisting that Iran has
no relations to what is going on in Iraq and that his nuclear program
is exclusively of peace character.
New Yorker weekly corespondent Seymour Hersh says that the
U.S. Pentagon has set up a special planning group to coordinate
possible attacks on Iran. Hersh, quoting unnamed sources, added that
the group would plan raids to be carried out within 24 hours of a
presidential order for military action. The article also says that
covert intelligence-gathering inside Iran had been stepped up in
recent months, with special operations groups entering from Iraq to
pursue Iranians suspected of working against US interests. An
administration representative immediately denied all results of this
journalistic investigation. But Senate Armed Services Committee member
Carl Levin insists on holding hearings in this regard. He said that
suppositions in the article that the U.S. administration is planning
various secret operations in the Middle East without informing the
Congress are extremely anxious.
Nevertheless, observers in the United States are sure that the
American army that has stuck in Iraq and Afghanistan is not capable to
launch military operations in one more country, and the war against
Iran will not become a reality.
– At Resource Center NGO of Stepanakert a round-table meeting on the
connection between the Karabakh settlement and the U.S. ` Iranian
relations took place. The administrator of Resource Center Irina
Grigoryan says `there are too many geo-strategic factors around
Karabakh, therefore it is hard to imagine settlement outside the
regional context.’
The political scientist Davit Babayan told about the situation in
Iran. He emphasized that the actions of the United States with regard
to Iran are determined by the wish to neutralize potential opponents
aspiring to world rule, and first of all China. And Iran is the `best’
path leading to Central Asia and China. Besides, Iran threatens the
U.S. monopoly in terms of political stability, as well as oil and gas
resources and impact on the environment.
The armed conflict between the U.S. and Iran is not favorable for the
Armenian party for several reasons, Davit Babayan says. First, because
Iran borders with Karabakh. Second, the interested parties may use the
opportunity and take anti-Armenian steps. According to the political
scientist, the anti-Iranian forces will hardly wish to use the
territory of Karabakh to intrude into Iran, at least because the
border between the two countries passes along a rather wide river
without bridges.
Serge Amirkhanyan, ARF Dashnaktsutyun, said in the round-table meeting
that 13 ethnicities live in Iran. In addition, Persians are not a
majority. There were separatist movements in Iran, which were severely
repressed, however, namely when the USSR claimed to North Iran.
According to Serge Amirkhanyan, Karabakh missed the moment to set up
relations with Iran. Mr. Amirkhanyan, who grew up in Iran, says it
would be expedient to open the border for trade between the Iranian
and Karabakh villages situated near the border. This would be mutually
favorable, both politically and economically. Especially, that there
is a special attitude towards Armenians in Iran. In Iran the Armenian
language is taught at schools as a foreign language. The
representatives of all the other ethnicities study in Persian only.
It was mentioned during the round-table meeting that the first
official delegation to visit Karabakh in 1992 immediately after the
declaration of independence was the Iranian delegation headed by the
deputy minister of foreign affairs of Iran.
The participants of the round-table concluded that the delay in the
settlement of the Karabakh conflict is not connected with the Iranian
issue, although the U.S. ` Iranian controversies could be used by
Azerbaijan to reach its goals.
– On the initiative of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic Ministry of
Territorial Management and Development of Industrial Infrastructures,
the Artsakh Development Agency and Public organization of businessmen
and merchants of Iran in Armenia, a group of businessmen and
manufacturers from Iran paid a two-day visit to Stepanakert.
A number of issues of mutual interest were discussed in the course of
the forum conducted in the building of the NKR Government. In
particular, variants of import of raw materials and corresponding
equipment were discussed. It was decided also to organize an
exposition of Iranian goods in the NKR in future.
The Iranian businessmen visited a number of industrial enterprises of
the republic, got acquainted with the production of local businessmen,
showed interest in the tax field and breaks established for foreign
investors.
«The visit of the Iranian delegation to the Nagorno Karabakh
Republic is a new step in the way of deepening of the cooperation, –
NKR Prime-Minister Anoushavan Daniyelian stated commenting on the
forum in Stepanakert. ` The secular friendship of the two peoples is
still deeply rooted which is manifested both in various spheres of
economy and in the spheres of science, education and culture. These
ties are being consistently strengthened».
The Head of the Cabinet of Ministers presented also the achievements
in the republic’s economy noting the favourable conditions created by
the NKR for stimulating foreign investments.
On behalf of the NKR Government Anoushavan Daniyelian expressed
readiness to render necessary assistance to the Iranian businessmen in
implementation of their programs in Nagorno Karabakh.