Month: March 2007

ARMENIAN PREMIER’S DEATH LEAVES HARD-TO-FILL GAP
By Ara Tadevosian in Yerevan

Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
March 29 2007

The governing elite faces the challenge of finding a replacement
prime minister following the death of a man seen as a bridge-builder.

The sudden death of Armenia’s prime minister has removed from the
scene a man widely regarded as a stabilising factor on the country’s
conflict-ridden political scene.

Andranik Margarian was only 55 when he died of a heart attack on
March 25. His death comes on the eve of a parliamentary election.

A former Soviet dissident, Margarian was independent Armenia’s
longest-serving prime minister, holding the post for seven years.

In that time, he won a reputation for tolerance in dealing with
political opponents.

Journalist and political commentator Aris Kazinian said Margarian
came into office in 2000 at a very difficult point, when the country
was still suffering from the fallout of an attack that killed eight
senior politicians.

"Margarian became a key figure on the Armenian political scene after
the terrorist act in parliament in October 1999. The murders of Prime
Minister Vazgen Sarkisian and speaker Karen Demirchian created an
atmosphere of instability in the country, and an obvious lack of
public confidence in the authorities," said Kazinian.

Margarian replaced Aram Sarkisian, brother of the murdered prime
minister, who did not disguise his hostility to President Robert
Kocharian in the few months that he held office. Sarkisian is now a
leading opposition figure

At the time, Margarian was head of the Unity parliamentary group and
had been openly critical of Kocharian, so when the latter appointed
him, many regarded it as a suicidal move.

However, Margarian turned out to be not only one of the president’s
most loyal allies but also the only Armenian prime minister so far
to meet budget targets and oversee double-digit economic growth for
several years in a row.

"It’s hard to imagine that the domestic political situation would
have progressed so well if either a staunch opposition member or a
pro-presidential figure had become prime minister at that difficult
time," said Kazinian. "The circumstances in which Margarian
was appointed earned him the epithets ‘compromise premier’ and
‘stabilisation premier’."

The prime minister died just seven weeks before parliamentary elections
scheduled for May 12, in which the governing Republican Party which
he headed is a leading contender.

Together with the nationalist Dashnaktsutiun party, the Republican
Party forms the governing coalition in parliament. But it faces a
new challenge in the elections, as the authorities are also backing
another party, the newly-formed Prosperous Armenia, set up by the
richest man in the country, Gagik Tsarukian.

Armenian opposition media have dubbed Prosperous Armenia a "political
technology project" hatched by the presidential administration
with the aim of drawing support from voters disaffected by current
government policies.

Tsarukian’s substantial financial investment in the party already
appears to be paying off, with opinion polls suggesting it now has
the support of 30 per cent of the electorate, even though it was only
formed one year ago.

The Republican Party has around the same level of support, meaning
that on current projections, neither will win an outright majority
in parliament.

"Objectively, the political situation is such that no one political
force, including our own party, is capable of taking the country
forward on its own," the head of the Republican Party’s parliamentary
group, Galust Saakian, told IWPR.

Facing competition from Prosperous Armenia, the Republican Party last
August moved to reinvigorate itself by appointing Defence Minister
Serzh Sarkisian as chairman of its ruling council, while Margarian
remained party leader.

Sarkisian is a close ally of the president, and the favourite to be
nominated as his successor when Kocharian steps down in 2008.

"Our party was never just a one-man party," Eduard Sharmazanov,
press secretary of the Republican Party told IWPR, predicting changes
to party policy following the death of Margarian, but no internal
tensions.

This is the third time the Republican Party has lost a leader to
untimely death. But the party overcame the death of Ashot Navasardian
in 1997 and Vazgen Sarkisian’s murder in 1999 and maintained its
influence and share of the electorate.

This time, however, things might be different, according to Ararat
Zurabian, now an opposition politician and a member of the Armenian
National Movement which governed the country from 1991 to 1998. "As
this election battle will principally be between the Republican Party
and Prosperous Armenia, the prime minister’s death will unbalance
the situation."

The parliamentary election is widely seen as a dress rehearsal for
the presidential ballot due in spring 2008.

With Serzh Sarkisian expected to be the official candidate, most
observers believe the presidential administration has been biding
its time before formally anointing him as Kocharian’s successor.

Margarian’s death now forces a difficult choice on the
administration. Appointing Sarkisian as prime minister ahead of the
parliamentary poll would make him more vulnerable because of the
high-profile nature of the post.

As required by the constitution, Kocharian dissolved the government on
March 26, the day after Margarian died. He then had 10 days to appoint
a new prime minister after consulting with the parliamentary majority.

These consultations have now taken place. According to reports in the
Armenian media, a decision has been made that the new prime minister
should come from the Republican Party. That makes it highly likely
that Defence Minister Sarkisian will get the job.

Ara Tadevosian is director of the Armenian independent news agency
Mediamax.

AZERBAIJAN: SPLITS AT THE TOP
By Boyukaga Agayev in Baku

Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
March 29 2007

Arrest of a once-loyal politician suggests feuding among the ruling
elite.

A fight on the floor of parliament and the subsequent arrest of a
deputy have exposed increasing tensions within the once monolithic
governing elite in Azerbaijan.

During a debate on March 16 on the government’s report on its
activities, parliamentary deputy Husein Abdullayev, formerly a loyal
supporter of the government, launched a stinging attack on Prime
Minister Artur Rasizade and his cabinet.

The speaker tried in vain to get Abdullayev to calm down, and
pro-governmental members responded to his tirade.

The exchange of angry words ended in a fight between Abdullayev and
Fazail Agamaly, the head of the pro-government Ana Vatan (Motherland)
party. The younger and more athletic Abdullayev sent the other man
crashing onto a table and then left the chamber.

Agamaly apologised to members of the government, deputies and guests
for the incident, saying, "Someone had to stop this ill-mannered man,
and that’s what I did.

"Everyone can see that he’s gathered a gang of cut-throats around
him. The law-enforcement bodies know that and should take serious
action."

Three days later, Abdullayev was summoned to the prosecutor’s office
and arrested for hooliganism and assault. Later, he was stripped of
his parliamentary immunity and given two months’ pre-trial detention
in Baku’s Bailovo prison.

Eynulla Fatullayev, editor-in-chief of Realny Azerbaijan newspaper and
a friend of Abdullayev, told IWPR how the arrest happened. He said
Abdullayev had been on his way to a meeting with diplomats from the
Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe when he was stopped
by a group of men who asked to see his documents, then seized him,
pushed him into a car and drove him to the prosecutor general’s office.

Fatullayev said that his friend had been expecting to be arrested
even before the fight in parliament, and described that incident as a
"provocation".

"Sources in the government told him as much. They forced Abdullayev
to choose between leaving Azerbaijan and going to prison. He wanted
to stay and carry on his struggle, and he asked me for advice. I said,
‘You’ve already made your move, so you have to fight to the end.’"

Abdullayev is now also being investigated for tax evasion.

As often happens in Azerbaijan, relatives of a disgraced public figure
are suffering alongside him. On March 26, Husein Abdullayev’s brother
Azer was sacked from his post as head of the anti-smuggling department
at airport customs.

Husein Abdullayev can lay claim to being the first of the oligarchs
in post-independence Azerbaijan. In 1992, his fortune was estimated
at five million US dollars, a huge sum for that time. He set up a
big trading company, called Nakhichevan after his home region, and
was a major player in the oil business.

He is now head of a large private security agency.

In recent years Abdullayev has moved into politics and was an
ardent supporter of the late president Heidar Aliev, who also came
from Nakhichevan. He personally led an armed group that broke up
opposition protests.

In 2005, he was elected to parliament as an independent deputy.

However, the political landscape has changed since Ilham Aliev
succeeded his father Heidar in 2003, and in his new role as legislator
Abdullayev did not toe the government line.

He first caused a stir in parliament last year, when he demanded
that Interior Minister Ramil Usubov give a report on the case of Haji
Mamedov, a police colonel who had recently been given a life sentence
after years of collusion with criminal gangs.

Abdullayev is only one of a number of politicians who have quarreled
with their former allies in the government and presidential
administration. Several of them have ended up in jail.

Former health minister Ali Insanov was arrested on the eve of the
October 2005 parliamentary election and accused of plotting a coup
d’etat. The charges against him have changed since he has been in
detention, and he is now accused of corruption, embezzlement of state
funds and abuse of power.

Insanov’s court appearances have attracted much public attention,
since he was one of the founders of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan
party and was considered the leader of a large influential "clan" in
government drawn from Azerbaijanis with roots in Armenia. In court,
Insanov has accused his accusers of being politically motivated and of
"anti-state activities".

Insanov’s supporters have joined protests by the opposition party
Musavat, which has held three political rallies this year.

Musavat and another opposition party, the Popular Front, are now also
demanding the release of Abdullayev.

Another ex-minister, Farhad Aliev, also arrested in October 2005,
is also due to stand trial soon. Analysts believe his arrest marked
the start of a period of strife within the governing elite.

Political expert Eldar Namazov said the feuding was almost inevitable.

"No political reforms have been carried out in Azerbaijan since 2003,"
he said. "Heidar Aliev controlled the system by virtue of his personal
authority. The system ran on autopilot for several years after he died.

"Now it’s begun to crumble from within. Even those who built this
power structure are worried about the situation."

Namazov said the breakdown of the elite was a long drawn-out process,
but might pick up speed as circumstances changed.

"Every day there are new scandals and rows," he said. "People who
used to be strong supporters of the authorities are now strongly
criticising them. They cannot stand the situation any longer, and
they are speaking out."

Abdullayev has complained that he is being held in poor conditions
and is being subjected to pressure by the prison authorities. He met
the head of Azerbaijan’s Anti-Torture Committee on March 22 and has
appealed to international organisations to help him fight what he
says is an illegal arrest.

Boyukaga Agayev is a correspondent with the Azadliq newspaper and
head of the South Caucasus Research Centre in Baku.

DEATH OF ARMENIA’S PRIME MINISTER MAY INTENSIFY THE STRUGGLE FOR POWER.

Eurasian Home Analytical Resource, Russia
March 29 2007

The sudden death of Armenian Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan came
quite as a shock to the country. On May 12, 2007 the parliamentary
elections will be held in Armenia. These elections will have a pivotal
role in formation of a new political system because the country is
one year from the presidential elections. Andranik Margaryan, head
of the biggest ruling Republican Party, was one of the key figures.

Having managed to hold the Premier’s post for 7 years, he could soften
the political confrontation before the presidential elections.

After his death the political struggle in Armenia is quite likely to
become more severe, this will tell on the country’s moral atmosphere.

However, Margaryan’s death will not lead to serious political
conflicts.

President Robert Kocharian and the ruling coalition have decided that
it is the Republican Party’s member who will become Prime Minister.

Minister of Defense Serge Sarkisian has been appointed acting Prime
Minister. However, it is unclear whom the President will submit to
the Parliament for approval to the Premier’s post. It may be once
again Serge Sarkisian. In this case, Sarkisian will have very good
chances of driving the Republican Party into the National Assembly.

Now Sarkisian seems to be the most likely candidate for the premiership
in 2008. At the same time, it is questionable if Robert Kocharian will
accept such a powerful figure as Sarkisian. If Kocharian is going to
prevent Sarkisian from strengthening his position excessively, then
a weaker person, for example, Minister of Territorial Administration
Hovik Abrahamyan will be appointed Premier. Abrahamyan also belongs
to the Republican Party, but he is more inclined to be subordinate
to the President.

One cannot say that the Prime Minister’s death will change the
relations between the authorities and the opposition. Today the
Armenian opposition is extremely weak and is not able to compete
with the parties in power. So, the opposition cannot take advantage
of the situation to destabilize the political status quo. However,
the government configuration may be changed in some way. Now the
most active struggle has started between the Republican Party headed
by Serge Sarkisian and the Prosperous Armenia Party backed by the
President. Here the new lay of the land can change the correlation
of political forces in a sense, but the changes are unlikely to be
dramatic. On the whole, only the political atmosphere can take a turn
for the worse because the struggle for power is becoming fierce.

ANOTHER OPPOSITION PARTY OPTS FOR ELECTION BOYCOTT
By Hovannes Shoghikian

Radio Liberty, Czech Rep.
March 29 2007

A second Armenian opposition party announced on Thursday its decision
to boycott the upcoming parliamentary elections, saying that they
will not be free and fair.

The leader of the small Liberal Progressive Party (AAK), Hovannes
Hovannisian, said it will instead concentrate on organizing
anti-government demonstrations in the wake of the May 12 elections.

"I believe that the outcome of the May 12 parliamentary elections
must be decided on the streets," he told RFE/RL. "There will be no
elections as such."

Hovannisian admitted that the AAK would fail to win at least 5 percent
of the vote needed for winning seats in the National Assembly under
the system of proportional representation. But he claimed that that
would be the result of vote rigging and not its lack of popularity
and political clout.

The former parliamentarian, who was a senior Communist Party member in
Soviet times but now stands for Armenia’s membership in NATO, said the
upcoming polls will mirror a weekend local election in the southern
town of Armavir. Its incumbent mayor affiliated with the governing
Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) won reelection through a heavy
use of government levers. The mayor’s main challenger representing
another establishment party alleged massive fraud.

The AAK’s boycott follows a similar decision made by another, bigger
opposition party, the National Democratic Union (AZhM), early this
month. It resulted from the collapse of the AZhM’s talks with three
other opposition groups over the formation of an electoral alliance.

The AZhM leader, Vazgen Manukian, argued that opposition parties
stand no chance of winning a parliament majority by contesting the
elections on their own. He also said the authorities’ have development
more sophisticated "mechanisms for hiding vote falsifications."

The other major opposition forces are clearly less pessimistic on this
score. But at least one of them, the radical Hanrapetutyun (Republic),
makes no secret of its intention to use the elections for staging a
campaign of anti-government street protests.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

WHERE IS ARKADI GHUKASYAN?

A1+
[04:00 pm] 29 March, 2007

NKR president Arkadi Ghukasyan’s whereabouts is unknown. According to
official sources, he has been on a short holiday since March 24. The
reason of his vacation is also unknown. In fact, he did not honor RA
Prime Minister’s premature death. Whereas various foreign delegations
arrived in Yerevan on the event.

In response to "A1+" question about Andranik Margaryan’s funeral,
Eduard Atanesyan, NKR president press secretary justified it with
the president’s vacation. It was not a good excuse either as he was
neither in RA nor NKR.

Our efforts to find out his whereabouts were not a success as it was
kept in secret. Strangely enough to mention, none of NKR president’s
staff member provides with any information about Arkadi Ghukasyan’s
short-term vacation.

SURB KHACH ‘GENOCIDE SURVIVAL’

A1+
[02:36 pm] 29 March, 2007

"The opening ceremony of Surb Khach in Akhtamar Island on Lake Van is a
usual preaching act by Turkey which aims at proving their long-lasting
animosity change towards Armenians,’ states Vahe Sargsyan, juror of
ARF ‘Nikol Aghbalyan’ student union.’ They should cognize the fact
that most of Armenian relics are either destroyed or at the edge of
annihilation in Turkey. ‘

While the Turkish government was getting ready for the opening ceremony
of the restored church, an exhibition was opened under the title
"Culture Genocide". More than 150 Armenian historical monuments are
exhibited there.

Eliza Durgaryan witnessed a moon on the dome of St. Arakelots church
in Kars while in Western Armenia.

‘When asked what church it was they answered it was of Greek
origin. Kars Historic Museum looked like our Museum of History: all
the exhibits were of Armenian origin,’ Mrs. Durgaryan recollects. In
fact, she believes they are not even going to put a cross on the dome
of St Khachik

The exhibition will travel to Vanadzor, Gyumri and Ijevan.

PM EXTENDS CONDOLENCES OVER ARMENIAN PM’S DEATH

The Vietnam News Agency
Published: Mar 29, 2007

Ha Noi, March 28 (VNA) – Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung on Mar. 28
sent a message of condolences to Armenian Acting PM Serz Sarkisian
over the sudden death of PM Andranik Markarian.

The BBC affirmed that PM Markarian died of a heart attack on Mar. 25.

UNDP SIGNS MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING WITH THE COURT OF CASSATION

ArmRadio.am
29.03.2007 17:15

Today the UNDP Resident Representative Ms. Consuelo Vidal signed a
Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Chairman of the Court of
Cassation of the Republic of Armenia Hovhannes Manukyan to support
access of the Armenian public to judiciary information, judicial acts
and courts’ verdicts.

Since 2003 UNDP and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation
have promoted participatory policymaking in Armenia through
establishing countrywide interactive e-governance systems and an
information society. The focus has been on enhancing the efficiency,
accessibility, and accountability of public administration at the
regional and local levels. The support has translated into free access
to public information, and improved services provided to the public
by the regional authorities and local self-governance bodies.

The current project aims at enhancing participation in the country,
by providing ICT-enabled mechanisms for accessing the judicial
branches of the government, and contribute in this way, to increase
the transparency of the judiciary.

The UNDP Resident Representative said in her remarks: "Participation
is one of the priority issues for UNDP and the Government of
Armenia. Information technologies facilitate the dissemination of
information, provide access to the government and are the perfect
conduit for citizen-government interaction.

This is key for ensuring transparency and accountability." And the
Chairman of the Court of Cassation highlighted the following: "The key
pillars of the second phase of the judiciary reforms are considered the
principles of public awareness and information accessibility. This is
why we sign today this memorandum of understanding with our partners."

CONDOLENCE LETTERS STILL ARRIVING FROM DIFFERENT SIDES OF THE WORLD

ArmRadio.am
29.03.2007 17:40

Condolences for the death of RA Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan
continue arriving from different sides of the world.

"On behalf of the Government of Japan, let me express my deepest
condolences on the death of the Prime Minister of the Republic of
Armenia Andranik Margaryan. I pray for the peace of his soul," says
the letter of Shinzo Abe, the Prime Minister of Japan.

In his condolence letter the President of the State Council of
China Ven Tsziabao wrote: "With deep sorrow I learned about the
untimely death of Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan: I’m deeply
pained. Mr. Margaryan was a friend of China and was taking active
efforts to foster the bilateral cooperation between Armenia and China
in all the spheres. He had a great contribution to the development
of Armenian-Chinese relations, friendship and cooperation."

Co-Chairs of the Congressional Caucus on Armenian Issues Joe
Knollenberg and Frank Pallone say: "For decades Andranik Margaryan
has been a political moving force in Armenia. He is respected in the
whole world as a real leader of progressive management. As Co-Chairs
of the Armenian Caucus, it was a great pleasure to work with Andranik
Margaryan, and we will feel his loss."

PETER SEMNEBY EXTENDS CONDOLENCES

ArmRadio.am
29.03.2007 17:50

EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Peter Semneby extended
condolences to Andranik Margaryan’s family, friends, RA Government, and
the whole Armenian nation. His letter says: "It was with great sorrow
that I learnt about the death of Andranik Margaryan. I have had many
opportunities to meet with him. He was a bright personality, a real
devotee of democracy and establishment of peace in the region. He had
a pivotal role in the establishment of firm and perspective relations
between Armenia and the European Union."