Month: November 2006

PRESS RELEASE
LSE events
Contact: Gwen Sasse
Email: [email protected]
Tel: 020 7955 6043

The Armenians: from kings and priests to merchants and commissars
Dr. Razmik Panossian

You are invited to a lecture to be be delivered by Dr. Razmik Panossian
at LSE on Tuesday 28 November

European Institute Schapiro Lecture Series
The Armenians: from kings and priests to merchants and commissars
Date: Tuesday 28 November 2006
Time: 6.30pm
Venue: Hong Kong Theatre, ground floor, Clement House
Speaker: Dr. Razmik Panossian
Chair: Dr. James Hughes
This lecture traces the evolution of Armenia and Armenian collective
identity, including its diaspora, from its beginnings to the eve of the
Armenian nationalist movement in 1988. The emphasis is on the modern
era, including the Soviet period. Dr. Panossian’s overall approach is
that of interpretive political and cultural history, centred around
theories of national identity formation and nationalism.

Dr. Razmik Panossian is the director of programmes at Rights and
Democracy <; and author of The Armenians: from
kings and priests to merchants and commissars (Columbia University
Press, 2006).

This event is part of the Schapiro Lecture Series, hosted by the LSE
European Institute.

This event is free and open to all with no ticket required. Entry is on
a first come, first served basis.

For further information email [email protected] or phone 020 7955 6043

Boston Globe, MA
Nov 26 2006

Powered by goodwill

Quincy man honors brother’s legacy of giving with bike-a-thon
fund-raiser
By Rich Fahey, Globe Correspondent | November 26, 2006

QUINCY — Richard Boyajian says that when he thinks about the smiling
faces of the children, it reminds him of his brother. And that
inspires him to pedal faster.

Each Memorial Day weekend, Boyajian , 67, takes off with about a
dozen friends on a 25-mile bike-a-thon from Cambridge to Lexington
and back to raise money for the Nish Boyajian Memorial Foundation,
which he founded in the name of his brother, Harold Nishan Boyajian ,
who died of cancer in 1995. He uses the funds raised to improve
school playgrounds in Armenia, the country his father, Haig, left in
1910. (Armenia, a former Soviet republic, regained its independence
in 1991.)

Boyajian recently returned from his sixth trip to Armenia, but this
time with a heavy heart: His mother, Mary, died at age 92, two days
before he arrived home on Sept. 30. Boyajian had gotten word during
his trip that she had fallen ill, but she appeared to be improving
and in no immediate danger when she suddenly took a turn for the
worse.

He came home, as he always did, with a souvenir from Armenia for his
mother, a small cap in Armenian colors. It went with her when she was
buried.

"My mother never could believe what we did to keep Nish’s memory
alive," Boyajian said recently, remembering the pride his mother had
in his goodwill missions to his father’s homeland. Haig Boyajian ,
who died in 1978, raised his family in the warmth of Watertown’s
large Armenian-American community; Mary was born in Fitchburg.

On his latest trip, Boyajian brought sports and playground equipment
for seven schools in Armenia, as well as fully equipped first aid
kits, working in conjunction with the Mirak Foundation.

"I think Nish would be happy with what I’m doing," he said.

Nish Boyajian ran a print and office supplies firm in Waltham. He was
president of the Men’s Club at St. James Armenian Church in Watertown
and the Watertown Rotary Club, and served on the board of the
Watertown Boys Club, among his many endeavors.

"He was a very charitable man and well-known in the Armenian
community," said Boyajian , who also tried to find ways to give back,
as his brother was doing. He helped raise money for Armenian
earthquake victims in 1988, and rode his bike each year to raise
funds to fight diabetes, from which he and several other family
members suffer.

The Nish Boyajian Memorial Foundation began in 1995, when Boyajian
was driving his brother to a hospital in Philadelphia for
experimental cancer treatments and found himself wishing he and other
family members had something to do as they waited in the lounge while
Nish was undergoing the treatments.

"There was no real recreational area you could go to, to take your
mind off what was happening," he said.

After his brother’s death that year, Boyajian made a solo 70-mile
bike ride in Nish’s name, raising enough money to buy two treadmills.
He donated one to the cancer ward of the hospital where Nish had been
treated, to give patients and family members something to do while
passing time. He lent the other to Nish’s son, Richard, who was
recovering from a bone marrow transplant for leukemia, and later
donated the machine to Regina Cleri, the home for retired priests in
Boston’s West End, where he has been cutting the priests’ hair for
many years.

He raises much of his foundation’s funds today from per-mile pledges
or flat contributions from longtime customers at his Boston Brahmin
Hair Salon on Portland Street, near North Station in Boston. It
remains a modest nonprofit, pulling in about $7,000 each year from
the bike-a-thons.

Boyajian had his real epiphany for the foundation’s work in 2000, in
a chance meeting with a group of young Armenians who had come to the
Boston area through an exchange program between Cambridge and its
Armenian sister city of Yerevan, under the auspices of the US Agency
for International Development. Boyajian entertained the visitors,
taking them to hockey games, hosting a cookout, and organizing
outings to nearby Wollaston Beach.

The Rev. Joanne Hartunian, youth exchange program director for the
Cambridge Yerevan Sister City Association, later asked Boyajian
whether he would chaperone a group of local students traveling to
Armenia that year. That opportunity would lead to his embracing his
Armenian heritage and beginning the annual trips with the proceeds
from his fund-raisers, and to hosting various Armenian groups
traveling to this country.

Many friends and customers have been supportive, he says, both with
the fund-raisers and with the visitors. Even the Boston Bruins have
lent a hand. "The Bruins and Nate Greenberg" — longtime assistant to
former Bruins president Harry Sinden — "have been great," he said.
"They’ve opened their doors to many of my Armenian guests."

Boyajian has studied Armenia’s history and learned enough of the
language to make himself understood on his visits. But his new
friends over there have helped the missions as well.

Businessman Arthur Hovsepyan of Magnon Manufacturing, for example,
has made the money Boyajian raised go a bit further. He manufactured
the chairs and tables for the schools in Zeytoun and the playground
equipment for the schools in Gyumri, allowing Boyajian to cut out the
middleman.

Boyajian knows he can’t ride his bike forever. He is hoping that the
next generation — perhaps his nephew Richard, whose leukemia has
been in remission for several years — will pick up and continue the
cause, in memory of Nish.

Hudson Reporter, NJ
Nov 26 2006

Marching for genocide awareness
Weehawken native walks coast to coast in ‘Journey for Humanity’

By Jim Hague 11/26/2006

Weehawken native Edward Majian was finally able to put his feet up
and rest a week ago Wednesday, something he has not done much since
late June.

Back then, he and five other college students of Armenian descent
began a journey from Los Angeles to Washington, D.C. – on foot.

"I figured I went through five pairs of sneakers, walking 3,300
miles," said Majian, who completed the five-month long "Journey for
Humanity" to draw attention to the murders of 400,000 innocent
residents of Darfur in Sudan, as well as other genocidal events in
history, some of which have occurred in Armenia.

"We walked about 28 to 30 miles a day," he said. "I think it was very
rewarding, making a difference with people who don’t know who you are
and don’t know about genocide."

Genocide is defined as "The deliberate and systematic extermination
of a national, racial, political, or cultural group." The most famous
genocide was the Holocaust, but there are often smaller genocides
going on in foreign lands that the average American remains unaware
of.

Majian, who is a student of political science and social justice at
St. Peter’s College in Jersey City, took the semester off so he could
march with members of the United Armenian Students (UAS).

"My girlfriend became involved with the organization, and when I
heard of the march, I wanted to be a part of it as well," Majian
said.

There was a symbolic meaning to the students’ march.

"Walking and marching is used as a method to kill in the genocide,"
he said. "In Armenia, people were made to walk in blistering heat.
They were death marches. If they couldn’t walk, they were killed on
the site."

There was a historic inspiration as well.

"In modern times, some of the greatest freedoms were achieved with
marches," Majian said. "Mahatma Gandhi had the Salt March. Dr. Martin
Luther King had the Freedom March to Washington. It proves that
humanity does, indeed, have choices. It’s very sobering."

Majian said that he was amazed that most of the people he encountered
during his march had no idea what genocide means.

"I was struck by their honesty," Majian said. "Some would say, ‘I
need to know. Explain it to me.’ They had to find out that genocide
is not a distant thing, that it is still happening today. Once they
realized what it was, people reached into their pockets and donated."

Still happening today

Majian and his five comrades went to several colleges along the way
to make presentations, including a stop at St. Peter’s College in
Jersey City, where the marchers were warmly greeted.

"The Social Justice Department at St. Peter’s has been a tremendous
help," Majian said. "They are the reason why I decided to dedicate my
life to such causes."

Along the way, the marchers met with members of the United States
Senate and Congress to discuss legislation that would recognize
genocide.

"There were times that it became frustrating, because I felt that
people didn’t care," Majian said. "How could people not care about
hundreds of thousands of people being killed? But after a while, I
realized that it was a very effective method and we were able to pass
on the word."

Majian added, "We felt that if we didn’t do something, then nothing
would get done. No one is taking the time to teach genocide as a
problem in society."

A week ago Wednesday, the six weary travelers completed the final
stretch of their tour, marching to Washington, D.C. to meet with U.S.
Congressmen Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) and Joe Knollenberg (R-Mich.) to
facilitate genocide awareness being addressed on the Congressional
floor.

"We walked the last two miles to the Capitol building," Majian said.
"The project was presented on the House floor. If we didn’t do what
we did, chances are that it would never have been addressed in
Washington."

Majian said that even though their journey is completed, the project
is far from being history and they still need financial support.

"It’s a misconception that we don’t need funding, because we’re still
about $30,000 in debt," Majian said.

Majian said that a documentary about the journey is in the works, as
is a possible book deal.

"Some countries act like these genocides never happened. But we have
to make sure that they are recognized."

To learn more about the "Journey for Humanity," log onto
, through which one donate to the cause.

Myrtle Beach Sun News, SC
Nov 26 2006

Armenians see Russian economic takeover
NAIRA MELKUMIAN

YEREVAN, Armenia – The recent acquisition of Armenia’s dominant
telephone company by a Russian company is raising concerns here that
Moscow is attempting to exert economic control over the republic it
once controlled politically.

The purchase of a 90 percent stake in ArmenTel, which holds a
monopoly on telephone and Internet service in Armenia, by the Russian
company Vympelkom only serves to strengthen Russia’s economic hold on
major economic assets in the republic.

The sale was announced shortly after the return of Armenian President
Robert Kocharian to Moscow.

It was during that trip that Russian President Vladimir Putin
announced that he considered Russia’s position as only the
third-largest investor in Armenia, behind Germany and Greece, as
"shameful."

The purchase, the latest in a series of Russian takeovers in key
areas of the Armenian economy, comes as public attitudes toward
Moscow are cooling because of the effect Moscow’s economic blockade
of neighboring Georgia is having on the Armenian economy.

Many here are also becoming increasingly worried by signs of rising
xenophobia in Russia toward Caucasians in general and Armenians in
particular.

Already, Russian companies own the major producers of electricity and
natural gas, as well as the country’s rail system.

"Just take a look," said Aram Manukian, a leading opposition
politician. "The energy sector, communications, and the railway
system have all been given to Russia. All this essentially weakens
Armenia’s independence."

But Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian, considered by most to be the
second most powerful figure in the government, has rejected such
charges.

"You won’t find to this day any examples of how Russian capital in
Armenia has been used as a tool for political pressure," he said at a
recent news conference.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russian companies
have poured billions of dollars of investments into Armenia. Some
contend it just makes good business sense.

"Russia’s desire to become established in Armenia as the most stable
country in the South Caucasus is understandable, as the attitude
toward Russian business is better here than in Georgia," said
political analyst Anna Harutyunian.

But Aram Sarkisian, head of the opposition Democratic Party, said the
government should not have ceded control of a key industry so easily.

"All power-generating operations are effectively in Russia’s hands,"
he said.

"There are no problems with Russia. That country is our ally and I am
in favor of deepening cooperation with it. But the government should
control our strategic facilities."

By and large, the average telephone user, who has long complained of
poor service, doesn’t seem to care who owns the company as long as
service improves.

"It doesn’t matter to me who the operator will be," said Suren
Minasian. "Ordinary consumers just need easy, high-quality
communications."

Los Angeles Daily News, CA
Nov 26 2006

Fleeing violence from U.S.-caused war in Iraq, refugees find their
way to Glendale

PAMELA HARTMAN, Guest Columnist
Article Last Updated:11/25/2006 07:10:35 PM PST

A visit to Glendale can offer more insight into the worsening
situation in Iraq than a month’s worth of news reports.

As an immigration attorney in Encino, I see clients from all over the
world. Over the past year, a steady stream of Iraqi Armenians has
come to my office to apply for asylum in the United States. Many live
in Glendale, a city whose population is about 40 percent ethnic
Armenian.

As months go by, each new applicant brings a tale more disturbing
than the last. These Iraqis are professionals, shopkeepers,
Christians, all ordinary people who led ordinary lives before the war
began. They should have been the beneficiaries of the new Iraq. But
now they are its victims. As we debate how to disentangle our nation
from the debacle in Iraq, we should consider our responsibility to
those whose lives this war has turned upside-down.

The first to appear in my office in August 2005 was Zabell, a young,
highly intelligent woman from a well-to-do family. Like all the
Armenian Iraqis I’ve met, she was pro-American. When the war began in
2003, she and other Armenians greeted the American troops as
liberators, happy to be free of the tyranny of Saddam Hussein.
Westernized and well-educated, they quickly found jobs with the
American Army and American contractors.

Zabell got administrative work with a British nonprofit agency and in
her spare time helped her father with his engineering contracts with
the American Army. But things began to sour almost immediately.

After looting broke out when the Americans seized control, Zabell’s
family began paying a monthly protection fee to a local Muslim gang.
As the insurgency gained steam, Zabell’s co-workers began criticizing
her for wearing Western clothing and for working outside the home.
They began loudly playing CDs of extremist Muslim preachers on their
computers at work.

Outside, Iraq was unraveling. The bombing of the United Nations, the
murders of the four American contractors in Fallujah – each grim
event signified a further descent into chaos and extremism.

The Armenian community center closed – its pool facility allowing
boys and girls to swim together did not belong in the new Iraq.
Armenian churches were bombed; it was too dangerous to attend church
anyway.

The British nonprofit where Zabell worked began changing the times
and locations of its meetings to foil would-be attackers. But one of
the most insidious realities in the new Iraq was that co-workers
could no longer be trusted. Some now sided with the terrorists and
spied on their own colleagues.

In November 2003, the British nonprofit closed its office in Iraq and
its international staff fled. But local Iraqis had nowhere to go. The
local staff struggled to keep the nonprofit afloat. In December 2004,
al-Qaida kidnapped a guard at the organization, and the following
month Sunni extremists attacked another worker.

Two weeks later, the terrorists targeted Zabell. A carload of
gun-toting extremists followed her car one day from work. She and her
bodyguard managed to escape in Baghdad’s rush-hour traffic. But then
she began receiving horrifying death threats on her cell phone.
Finally, Zabell’s family smuggled her out of the country to Jordan.
With recommendation letters from U.S. Army officials who had worked
with her family, she was fortunate to obtain a tourist visa to the
United States.

Zabell’s case was somewhat exceptional because her work with a
European organization made her an attractive target. But after
Zabell, more Iraqi Armenians began showing up at my office. Some were
only recently out of college and had not begun to work.

Noor Karim was just 22 years old when she and her family received
death threats from Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi militia. The militia
targeted them because her brother had accepted a job with an American
contractor. Another client, a septuagenarian widower who owned a
repair shop, had lived a long, quiet life without disruption. Now he,
too, became the target of death threats.

Every day it seemed more Iraqis woke up to death threats tossed into
their carports. At first the death threats were handwritten, but as
kidnappings became a daily occurrence, the kidnappers grew more
brazen and organized. The terrorists now issue generic, computerized
threats with the organization’s name as letterhead. Only the name of
the victim is written by hand.

"To the traitors cooperating with Americans," began one typed death
threat received in 2005 by a young architect employed by an American
contractor working in the Green Zone. "If you don’t repent, the
Mujahideen will punish you and behead you." The frightened architect,
who asked not to be identified, has escaped, leaving some of her
family behind.

Criminals and terrorists – and police who may be members of both
groups – are siphoning the wealth of Iraq from the doctors, engineers
and businessmen who earned it.

In March 2006, Iraqi traffic police brazenly kidnapped a young
doctor, Aleen Serob, who was on a medical rotation in Baghdad. They
turned Serob over to cohorts who detained her for three days, hands
bound and eyes blindfolded. Her family paid a large ransom to secure
her release. She, too, was fortunate enough to escape through
marriage to an Iraqi living in the United States.

In one of the cruel ironies of this war, Iraq, the cradle of
Christianity, is being emptied of its Christians. Before the current
war, about 3 percent of Iraq’s population was Christian. Estimates
are that tens of thousands have fled. Many go to Jordan or Syria. But
those countries only allow Iraqis to stay for three-month periods and
offer no path to residency.

The United States has not liberalized its refugee policy in response
to the worsening crisis in Iraq. More than 1 million Iraqi refugees
of all religious backgrounds have poured into Lebanon, Syria and
Jordan. In fiscal year 2006, just 202 Iraqi refugees were resettled
in the United States.

The Iraqis I see have had a very difficult time getting to the United
States. Only a few are fortunate enough to obtain tourist or
employment visas, which can routinely be denied by U.S. Embassy
officials who, often rightly, suspect the Iraqis’ real intent is to
immigrate to the United States. Everyone who makes it here has left
family behind in Iraq.

Noor Karim, now 24 years old, is the only member of her family to
make it to the United States. Her parents and siblings have spent the
past two years shuttling between Jordan and Syria every three months,
surviving solely on the income of her brother, who continues to work
for the American contractor. Noor’s uncles in Glendale are caring for
her.

The Christian population that was poised to take advantage of a truly
democratic Iraq instead is being dispersed into a diaspora that is
reluctant to accept it. Perhaps, like Vietnam, we will end up with a
new generation of refugees from another failed war. We owe at least
that much to a people whose lives we have disrupted forever.

Nouvelles d’Arménie, France
Nov 26 2006

Armenian-Turkish Dialogue and Taner Akçam

The current problems, if not enmity, prejudice and hatred, between
the Turkish and Armenian communities can almost entirely be traced
back to the Genocide of 1915. This has been, and still is, the major
stumbling block in Armenian-Turkish relations.

Frequently, the Armenians look at the year 1915 as the epitome and
culmination of the misfortunes, misgovernment and tragedies they
suffered under Ottoman Turkish rule. The Turkish state continues
flatly to deny the events of 1915, often mitigating or denigrating
the Armenian tragedy in various forms and to varying degrees.

They also claim that the vile acts of destruction committed against
the Armenians are below the inherent dignity and honor of the Turkish
people and the ideals of Turkish nationalism that gave rise to the
modern Turkish state.

Any and all references to 1915 have not only polarized both the
Armenians and the Turks but have also politicized their respective
stands vis-à-vis one another.

They continue to suffer emotionally, as their viewpoints remain
mutually unrecognized or unacceptable. They spend millions of dollars
to silence one another’s voice and become all the more embittered, as
they fail to come to terms with the unspeakable pain, loss and
memories associated with 1915 and its attendant consequences.

The social actors engaged in this confrontation are the nation-states
of Turkey and Armenia, the communities in both countries, including
the Armenian minorities in Turkey, the Armenian diaspora, especially
in France and the United States, and the nascent Turkish communities
in Germany and the United States.

All of these actors ( ?) have their separate interests,
interpretations, and expectations from the discussion of the Armenian
tragedy, and they all attempt to impose their respective views upon
others.

As a whole, the Armenians are in agreement that what happened in 1915
was indeed genocide. They have different interpretations, however, as
to why 1915 happened, where 1915 should be located in collective
memory, and how this location should affect the present.

The views of the Turkish state, the Turkish diaspora, and the people
of Turkey also differ widely on the assessment of 1915. The Turkish
state has developed a master story that aims to deny and erase the
genocide from Turkish collective memory. This master story has so far
been viable because of the inherent disregard of the Turkish state
for its own historical past. Since the Turkish nationalist project
had to construct the Turkish nation-state in contradistinction to the
Ottoman Empire, it construed and identified the birth of the Turkish
state as the beginning of the history of the nation, rendering what
had transpired earlier irrelevant.

While the Turkish diaspora seems to adhere to this official state
line, the people of Turkey often do indeed have their own alternative
narratives. These narratives circulate informally among groups and
individuals, but are never brought into the public arena, for fear of
retribution from the state.

Such contestation and discrepancies between and within the Armenian
and Turkish communities, and the persistent lack of meaningful
dialogue produce sadly significant consequences. Their failure to
cultivate direct ties not only allows third parties to enter the
public space and exploit Armenian-Turkish differences and
disagreements to their advantage, it also forecloses opportunities to
discuss, acknowledge and address problems and silences in their own
histories.

The Armenian and Turkish communities can overcome such negative
consequences by recognizing their shared past, the violence, shock
and trauma they both have experienced, and the man-made tragedy
inflicted on the Armenians.

One could certainly assert that the Armenians have experienced a
double trauma : one resulting from the massacres of 1915, and the
other from Turkey’s refusal to recognize the genocide. One of the
first steps towards reconciliation through dialogue is the
recognition of the trauma of the past affecting both the Armenians
and the Turks.

Prior to 1915, the Armenians and Turks shared more than six centuries
of common history. This common history can only be studied if 1915 is
recognized as one, albeit major, historical instance to be analyzed
within the context of the common history Turks and Armenians shared
before and after 1915. Inability to do so would essentialize 1915.
The second step in reconciliation through dialogue is the recognition
of the common history of the Armenian and Turkish communities.

In its account of what happened or did not happen to the Armenians,
the master story of the Turkish nation-state chooses to emphasize the
pain and suffering inflicted on the Turks themselves, as if this
would in some way alleviate Armenian pain and lessen the Armenian
tragedy.

The Turkish master story also claims that the denial of the Armenian
tragedy and the exclusion of this group from its imagined community
would decrease the pain and suffering of the Turks. The third step in
reconciliation through dialogue is the recognition of the inherent
biases present in the master story of the Turkish state.

Once these steps are taken jointly by the Armenian and Turkish sides,
on equal terms and with mutual recognition and respect, the current
insufferable atmosphere can be turned into a joint search for
reconciliation through dialogue. Such a perspective is essential if
Armenian and Turkish scholars are to explore history in a meaningful
way and in all its shades, gray and otherwise.

There is an acute need and, indeed, much room for understanding,
collaboration and joint exploration of all aspects, facets and
details of Armenian-Turkish relations throughout history. For there
is much prejudice to be shed, stereotypes to be destroyed, and many
obscure areas to be explored in a constructive fashion. It is this
spirit that has led us, two University of Michigan faculty, working
in the field of Ottoman and Armenian history and culture, to work
together with a view to promoting a scholarly dialogue and adopting a
wider embrace of Armenian-Turkish studies.

In our approach and determination to work together, we have derived
much inspiration from the person and work of Dr. Taner Akçam.

It is with a deep sense of privilege and honor that we introduce Dr.
Taner Akçam’s collection of essays. For many years now, Dr. Akçam has
been working tirelessly, and against tremendous odds, to overcome
prejudices and biases and to promote understanding and better
relations between Turks and Armenians. The focus of his scholarship
has been the Armenian Genocide, its history and impact on
Armenian-Turkish relations since 1915.

He has diligently delved into primary archival sources to understand
and illuminate, and to analyze and interpret, some of the darker
aspects of the Armenian tragedy and human behavior. In all his work,
Dr. Akçam’s scholarship has been meticulous, his perspectives
illuminating, and his moral fortitude inspiring.

What has also been remarkable about this gentleman is not only his
perseverance, but also his genuine sense of optimism. His essays
offer us a glimpse into the soul and work of a compassionate human
being and a dispassionate scholar, endowed with a deep sense of
social awareness and responsibility.

Dr. Akçam’s work has been so far published in Turkish and German and
has therefore been inaccessible to the English-speaking public. The
present volume brings together some of his essays in English
translation.

We are certain that this volume will be of significant importance to
those interested in the modern phase of Armenian-Turkish relations.
We are also certain that its appearance will be gratifying to Dr.
Akçam himself. A wider audience will read his work. This will
translate into a greater impact and, hopefully, will stimulate more
dispassionate research.

And there is no greater fulfillment for a Turk who began his arduous
journey all alone, than to be joined by an increasing number of
companions in quest of the truth and fruitful understanding between
Turks and Armenians.

KEVORK BARDAKJIAN
University of Michigan

FATMA MÜGE GÖÇEK
University of Michigan

The Telegraph, UK
Nov 26 2006

To understand the Middle East today, turn to Romeo and Juliet
By Niall Ferguson
Last Updated: 12:01am GMT 26/11/2006

It was three years ago that a prescient Beirut journalist I know
predicted that Iraq would end up as "Lebanon to the power of 10";
meaning Lebanon during its 16-year civil war between 1975 and 1991.
This year, his prophecy has been fulfilled as Iraq has spiralled into
bloody fratricidal strife.

By contrast, my friend was quite optimistic about Lebanon’s future.
But last week’s assassination of the industry minister, Pierre
Gemayel, raises the grim possibility that Lebanon may now go the way
of Iraq.

Civil war is the disorder of the day in the Middle East.
Unfortunately, politicians in the United States and Europe remain
chronically incapable of understanding how civil wars work. As a
result, not only do they struggle to stop them once they get going,
they also sometimes inadvertently fan their flames – a good
illustration being the way that Germany’s ill-considered recognition
of the independence of Slovenia and Croatia in December 1991
accelerated the break-up of Yugoslavia and the "ethnic cleansing" of
Bosnia.

advertisementToday’s equivalent idiocy is the enduring belief that,
by over-throwing Saddam Hussein and "liberating" Iraqis, the United
States could unleash a wave of democratisation throughout the Middle
East. It was in those terms that many commentators interpreted the
mass demonstrations in Beirut in March last year – the so-called
"Cedar Revolution" – that led to the withdrawal of Syrian troops from
Lebanon. Those events were also triggered by an assassination, that
of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. It will be ironic indeed if
this latest political murder sets the cedars of Lebanon blazing once
again.

The dream of a democratised Middle East had its origins in another
bad idea: the notion that the principal conflicts in the post-Cold
War era would be clashes between civilisations, in particular those
of Islam and the West. Turning Iraq into a democracy was supposed to
initiate a fundamental transformation of Islamic civilisation: to
westernise it politically and therefore to neutralise it
strategically.

The reality, however, is that the majority of conflicts in our time
have been within civilisations, not between them: civil wars, not
holy wars. And, as the cases of Lebanon and Iraq clearly illustrate,
such wars tend to be fought by neighbouring ethnic groups. Only
occasionally are the Muslims all on one side and the "westerners" –
shorthand for Christians and Jews – all on the other.

Remember Romeo and Juliet? The Montagues are not followers of Sharia
law; nor are the Capulets upholders of Judaeo-Christian values. They
are just "two households, both alike in dignity / In fair Verona".
Yet that does not stop an interminable civil war being waged between
these two clans, who "From ancient grudge break to new mutiny / Where
civil blood makes civil hands unclean".

Shakespeare calls the families "profaners of this neighbour-stained
steel… you men, you beasts / That quench the fire of your pernicious
rage / With purple fountains issuing from your veins". Those lines go
to the heart of what civil war is about: mutual hatred between
neighbouring groups, sustained by a cycle of violence.

It was not so very different in the Glasgow of my youth. No one could
conceivably call the ancient grudge between Rangers fans and Celtic
fans a clash of civilisations: more like a clash of barbarities.
True, the former are the Protestants and the latter are the
Catholics. But those are both Christian sects and, in any case, the
finer points of Reformation doctrine were seldom mentioned when the
rival gangs were kicking each other’s heads in.

The stakes are higher and the weapons much deadlier in the Middle
East. Take Lebanon. It certainly would be easy if the population
could be divided into Islamist bad guys and "pro-western" good guys.
Officially, it’s true, Muslims account for just under 60 per cent of
the population and Christians just under 40 per cent. But the former
can be sub-divided into Druze, Isma’ilite, Alawite or Nusayri, Shiite
and Sunni Muslims, while the latter include Catholics (Armenian,
Maronite, Melkite, Roman and Syrian) and Orthodox (Armenian, Greek
and Syrian) – not forgetting the Assyrians, Chaldeans, Copts and
Protestants. Officially, Lebanon’s population is divided into no
fewer than 17 religious sects.

Last week’s scenes in Beirut perfectly illustrate the complexity of
the conflict that is now simmering. The murdered man was himself a
Maronite Christian, the grandson of the founder of the Phalange Party
that once allied itself with Israel (Jews) to fight the Palestine
Liberation Organisation (Muslims). But the mourners spat on pictures
of General Michel Aoun, a Christian who has aligned his party with
Hezbollah (Muslims).

Ominously, one woman demonstrator was quoted by the New York Times as
saying: "There will come a day when we have revenge." One of Mr
Gemayel’s relations? No: a 39-year-old Muslim woman who attended the
demonstration with her seven children. She is almost certainly a
supporter of the Future Movement, a Sunni party whose leader, Saad
Hariri, is the son of the former prime minister whose assassination
began the Cedar Revolution.

Remember how the 1970s comedy Soap used to begin: "Confused? You will
be."

In one respect, in fact, it’s not that confusing. The paths of
Lebanon and Iraq diverged in 1991, when the United States waged its
first war against Iraq. At that time, a deal was quietly cut that
ended the civil war in Lebanon by handing the country over to Syria.
The recent spate of political assassination against anti-Syrian
politicians such as Mr Gemayel suggests that the Syrians have no
intention of letting Lebanon go.

Meanwhile, in Iraq, Bush Jnr is realising just why Bush Snr did not
march all the way to Baghdad back in 1991. For regime change in Iraq
has unleashed Lebanese-style centrifugal forces. Here, once again,
it’s not a clash between civilisations. True, the war between
American troops and al-Qaeda insurgents is not over, but it’s now a
sub-plot in a wider civil war between Shias and Sunnis. Thursday’s
lethal car bomb explosions in the Shiite district of Baghdad known as
Sadr City were just the latest and biggest of a succession of
sectarian attacks that dates back to the bombing of the Askariya
mosque at Samarra last February.

The key, as in Romeo and Juliet, is that each such attack begets
another attack, in an almost unstoppable cycle of tit-for-tat
killing. In retaliation for the Sadr City car bombs last week,
militiamen belonging to the Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi
army fired mortars into the Sunni neighbourhoods of Adhamiya and
Ghazaliya.

The Bush administration still believes that Iraqi politicians can be
browbeaten into sharing power with each other and taking
responsibility for security. Dream on. Last week, Sunni gunmen
attacked the health ministry, because it is run by a Shiite minister,
in retaliation for earlier Shiite kidnapping raids on the education
ministry, which is run by (you guessed it) a Sunni minister. In civil
wars, every action has an equal and opposite reaction. And often more
than equal.

In Baghdad these days, Mahdi army thugs drive around with kidnapped
Sunnis in their car boots, offering on-the-spot revenge to bereaved
Shias. Three Sunnis for a dead brother is the going rate. That is the
psychology that made October the bloodiest month in Iraq since the
American invasion.

The bad news, as James D Fearon of Stanford University explained to
members of the US Congress in September, is that withdrawing American
troops from Iraq will only accelerate Iraq’s descent into the abyss.
The worse news is that increasing troop numbers may only slow the
descent. The worst news is that civil wars like these tend to last a
long time. Of 54 major civil wars since 1945, half lasted more than
seven years. And most such wars don’t end with power-sharing
agreements, but with victory for one side or the other, often as a
result of foreign intervention.

Did I say "end"? The real lesson of Lebanon – and, indeed, of Bosnia
– may be that some civil wars never really end. No amount of tragedy
brings the real-life Montagues and Capulets to their senses. There
are merely ceasefires. And then the cycle of killing resumes.

– Niall Ferguson is Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard
University and Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution (as was Milton
Friedman)

The Times, UK
Nov 26 2006

Pope flies into a Turkish cauldron
Matthew Campbell, Istanbul

WITH his thick black moustache he looks a bit like Borat, the Kazakh
journalist in the hit Hollywood film, but Kemal Kerincsiz, a lawyer,
is far from comical when he inveighs against enemies of the Turkish
state.
The latest target of his displeasure is Pope Benedict XVI. Kerincsiz
has led an energetic campaign to halt the visit of the 79-year-old
pontiff, arriving on Tuesday, on the grounds that it is part of a
`foreign plot’ against Turkey. Not only had the Pope insulted Islam
in a speech he made in September, Kerincsiz said, but he was planning
a `provocative’ meeting in Istanbul with the head of Orthodox
Christianity. `We do not want him here. He should not come.’

Behind him on his office wall was a poster of the Pope as a fanged
serpent which Kerincsiz has been handing out to supporters. He has
also been bombarding government offices with `Stop the Pope’ e-mails
and faxes. Today he will attend a big demonstration against the Pope
in Istanbul.

The Pope could hardly have picked a trickier moment for his visit,
just as debate is reaching a bitter climax over whether to let Turkey
and its 70m, predominantly Muslim, citizens into the European Union.

America and Britain are strongly in favour of keeping Turkey firmly
in the western fold but Kerincsiz and his Lawyers’ Union are part of
a nationalist movement trying to pull it in the other direction.
Recent events, from the Pope’s comments about Islam to French efforts
to outlaw denial of the Turkish massacre of Armenians at the end of
the first world war, have worked in their favour.

The ultimate goal is to revive the Ottoman empire but, for the time
being, they must content themselves with a campaign to defend Turkey
against enemies.

It was Kerincsiz who brought a lawsuit against Orhan Pamuk, the Nobel
prize-winning author, earlier this year for accusing Turkey of
genocide against Armenians. `The Armenians were deported, not
killed,’ he insisted.

All of this risks jeopardising the country’s drive to modernity and
it is little surprise that talks with the EU on Turkish membership
have recently turned sour.

An increasingly impatient Brussels has repeatedly called on Turkey to
repeal article 301, the law being used by Kerincsiz to attack freedom
of speech. On Thursday, in a development unlikely to cheer the Pope,
two Christians went on trial under article 301 for insulting
`Turkishness’ and inciting religious hatred while trying to convert
Turks to Christianity.

Brussels has given Turkey until December 6 to let Cypriot ships into
its ports or risk seeing its application for EU membership rejected.
This has put Turks in an angry sulk over the `crusader mentality’ of
the Europeans, hardly an encouraging context for a papal visit.

The Pope once warned that letting Turkey into the EU would be `a
grave error against the tide of history’ and he has become, for many,
a symbol of western hostility towards Turkey.

For Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the moderate prime minister, it is an
extremely unwelcome predicament. An election is looming next year and
in order not to alienate voters he has pleaded a prior engagement – a
Nato summit in Riga – to avoid going anywhere near the Pope.

Muslim protests against the pontiff will not go down well in
Brussels, reviving perennial speculation about the threat to the
strong, secular democracy established by Atatürk, the founder of
modern Turkey.

A draconian security plan involving 12,000 policemen is being
implemented in Istanbul to prevent any violent backlash against the
Pope. Snipers will be posted on rooftops. Sewers will be searched for
bombs.

The authorities are right to be nervous. There has been a string of
attacks against Christian clergymen since the Pope’s speech in
September when he quoted a 14th-century Byzantine leader as saying
that the Muslims had spread their faith `by the sword’ and brought
things `only evil and inhuman’.

Earlier this month, a man fired a pistol in the air outside the
Italian consulate in Istanbul, shouting slogans against the Pope,
whose predecessor, John Paul II, was shot in the stomach by a Turkish
assailant in Rome.
On Wednesday, tourists were removed by police from the 6th-century
Byzantine Hagia Sophia Church, a famous Istanbul landmark, when about
100 nationalists staged an anti-Pope protest. The church was
converted into a mosque when the Ottomans conquered the city –
Constantinople, as it was known – in 1453, but is now a museum and
one of the venues on the papal itinerary.

For today’s demonstration, an Islamist party is planning to ferry
around 75,000 people on buses into Istanbul. Kerincsiz said his group
was planning to stage other protests during the visit but did not
support violence.

Not yet at least. Instead of membership of the EU, he advocates
restoration of a Turkic empire stretching from former Ottoman
provinces in the Balkans right up into Central Asia. Achieving this
would presumably involve a certain amount of swordplay.

It matters little to him that Atatürk, his hero whose portrait hangs
in his office, was in favour of westernisation, urging his citizens
to waltz and wear western clothes and introducing a Roman alphabet
and Swiss penal code. `Being in the EU, we would not be able to
restore our empire,’ said Kerincsiz.

He is helped by growing frustration over sacrifices being demanded by
Brussels. A poll last week showed that 60% were in favour of halting
talks with the EU. `The attitude seems to be that if you don’t want
us, we certainly don’t want you,’ said a western diplomat. `Turkey
feels terribly unloved.’

Turks are notoriously sensitive about how they are seen in the West.
It explains what happened in Washington last week when one of
Turkey’s top army generals stormed out of the White House in protest
after guards tried to frisk him before a meeting.

Try bargaining in Istanbul and see what happens. `Do you think that
you can pay what you like just because we are in Turkey and not in
London?’ complained an irate shop owner when a tourist offered less
than what seemed an exorbitant amount for a ceramic pot.

Because of the prospect, albeit distant, of becoming part of the EU,
the economy is booming – it attracts more foreign investment than any
other Mediterranean country – and by reducing the political role of
the army and curbing abuses of human rights Turkey has taken big
steps towards Europe. Yet in Turkish eyes, Europe keeps asking for
more: `We will never satisfy them,’ said Cengiz Bilgin, a teacher.
`It is clear they don’t really want us in their club.’

The argument appears to be gaining ground and the growth of
Kerincsiz’s group to 800 members in Istanbul alone over the past few
years suggests that he may have a future.

Call for and to anti-Christian laws

The Pope will stand up for Christian minority rights on his visit to
Turkey this week, writes Christopher Morgan. According to advisers,
he will call for an end to Turkey’s anti-Christian discrimination
laws that make it difficult for churches to own property and run
seminaries. Cardinal Walter Kasper said: `The treatment of Christian
minorities will have to be sorted out if Turkey is to join the
European Union.’ Under EU pressure, Turkey passed a law this month
strengthening Christian churches’ property rights, but Orthodox
leaders say this is not enough. Call for end to anti-Christian laws

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Pope on a tightrope for trickiest visit yet
Protests and violence likely as Benedict XVI heads to Istanbul

Ian Traynor in Istanbul
Saturday November 25, 2006
The Guardian

St Sophia’s is a place of dizzying magnificence. One of the most sacred
sites in Christendom for the best part of a millennium, made over into the
sultans’ mosque of choice for almost 500 years, the Byzantine masterpiece today is
a museum that testifies to centuries of feuding between Christianity, Islam,
and secularism. So when Pope Benedict XVI takes to the Istanbul tourist trail
next Thursday to admire the mosaics under the soaring dome of the sixth
century basilica, it will be the most delicate moment of the most sensitive trip
the 79-year-old Bavarian has ever made.
Four days in Turkey will pitch the pontiff into the eye of the storm he
churned up in September when he linked Islam and the Prophet Muhammad with
violence and inhumanity as a force of unreason.
And the eight minutes he is to spend in the cavernous St Sophia’s on Thursday
afternoon will be watched and weighed for signals of the Vatican’s true
intent towards Turkey and, more crucially, the world’s Muslims.
Will the pontiff pray at the place the Turks call Ayasofya, that the Greeks
know as Haghia Sophia? Will he genuflect? Or quietly re-consecrate the shrine?
He is likely, say those in the know, to cross himself as he enters the
museum. The risk is that Benedict will send Turkey’s Muslims and much of the
Islamic world into paroxysms of fury if there is any perception that the Pope is
trying to re-appropriate a Christian centre that fell to the Muslims in 1453
when Byzantine Constantinople became Ottoman Istanbul.
"This is not a mosque. This is not a church. This is a museum," said an
Ayasofya official. "There can be no religious services here."
"It won’t be good if he prays here. It will offend our people," said Mehmet
Tayyar Kaya, a Turkish Muslim visiting the shrine with his wife and son. An
indication of the tension over St Sophia’s came earlier this week when a group
of young nationalists "occupied" the basilica before being dispersed by
police. "And if he crosses himself? So what," said Father Dositheos Anagnostopulos
of the Orthodox Christian patriarchate in Istanbul. "God’s temple is in
man’s heart – that’s more important than old stones and old buildings."
The St Sophia dilemma is but one illustration of the challenge facing
Benedict as he seeks in the days ahead to navigate the treacherous front line
between Christianity and Islam. An old man in a young papacy, he delivered the
most unfortunate speech of his 19 months as Pope at a Bavarian university 10
weeks ago. Willy-nilly, he nourished the hopes and prejudices of those who see
in the post-9/11 world a "clash of civilisations" between Islam and the west.
The speech was a dense theological homily on the relationship between faith
and reason. Roman Catholicism, he declared, represents a happy fusion of
Christian faith and ancient Greek rationality. By contrast, Islam, he intimated,
was a faith that was blind, devoid of reason and with a resulting tendency to
violence. In the most incendiary part of his speech, he quoted – hardly by
accident – a 14th century Byzantine emperor in this city. "Show me just what
Muhammad brought that was new and there you will find things only evil and
inhuman," the emperor said.
Outrage
In the wake of the Danish cartoons crisis, in the midst of the conflicts in
Iraq, Afghanistan and the Palestinian territories, at a time of European
handwringing over how to deal with large Muslim minorities, the Islamic world
erupted in outrage at the Pope’s "insult" to the Prophet. Turkey’s top cleric
demanded an apology. Since the September speech Benedict has repeatedly voiced
regret for any offence he caused. But he has not retracted his remarks.
The result is that as the papal entourage prepares to arrive first in Ankara
on Tuesday, before moving on to Izmir and Istanbul, the Vatican appears to be
on the defensive, while Turkey and the Islamic world are suspicious and
hostile. The banks of the Bosphorus are plastered with banners declaring: "We
don’t want the Pope in Turkey." The Turk who tried to assassinate Benedict’s
predecessor, John Paul II, in 1981, has warned from a Turkish prison cell that
Benedict’s life is in danger. Shots have been fired outside the Italian
consulate in Istanbul; a plane was hijacked in a papal protest. Tens of thousands
of anti-Pope protesters are expected to converge on an Istanbul field
tomorrow.
Gunboats
The potential for trouble is high, the security operation is immense –
gunboats on the Bosphorus, snipers galore, decoy popemobiles. The Turkish
government insists Benedict is welcome, but at one time was having trouble
fielding
high-level figures to meet him. Recep Tayyip Erdogan originally had a pressing
engagement elsewhere, but last night a government official said Turkey’s
prime minister was hoping to meet the Pope on his arrival in the country after
all.
Kemal Kerincsiz, a key organiser of the "Stop Benedict" movement, said: "The
Pope coming here is an affront to our national sovereignty. And the worst
thing is his insults about Islam and the Prophet." Mr Kerincsiz is leader of the
ultra-nationalist Lawyers’ Union which, when not trying to impede the Pope,
is campaigning to jail writers like the Nobel laureate Orhan Pamuk for
peacefully voicing their opinions about Turkey.
His office is hung with posters depicting the Pope and Bartholomew I, the
Istanbul-based Ecumenical Patriarch of 250 million Orthodox Christians
worldwide, as a double-headed serpent. "Who’s complaining about freedom of
expression
now?" he says, grinning.
But is Pope-baiting a minority sport here? While Turkey is nervous about the
visit and things could turn ugly, it is more likely that traditional Turkish
hospitality will prevail, provided Benedict is diplomatically deft enough to
keep his balance on the Turkish tightrope.
Istanbul’s 530-year-old Fatih mosque is generally seen as the national
stronghold of strict traditional Islam. The sprawling grounds of the complex
yesterday were littered with flyers summoning the faithful to tomorrow’s big
anti-Pope protest.
But several men interviewed going into Friday prayers were generous in
welcoming Benedict and keen to give him the benefit of the doubt. "I don’t agree
with all these posters," said Ali Enuk, 40. "He knows how important Muhammad is
for the Muslims and he wouldn’t insult us. He’s a great religious leader. He
should come here."
Cevat Gulumser, 23, invoked an old Turkish expression of hospitality: "We
welcome him on to our heads and eyes. I won’t be going to the protest."
The chances are that Benedict will be seeking to mend fences. But while
Muslims will be measuring his every word, the Turkish establishment is more
likely to get a polite earful when it comes to Europe and to touchy issues of
religious freedom – Vatican code for the alleged persecution of Christians in
Turkey.
Istanbul, as the former capital of Byzantium, has also been the seat of
Orthodox Christianity for 1,700 years. Bartholomew I, a 65-year-old Turkish
Greek, is the symbolic head of world Orthodoxy and fears for the future of his
church in Turkey. For Turkish nationalists, Bartholomew is a Greek agent bent on
weakening and splitting up Turkey. The Turkish government refuses to restore
an old Orthodox seminary to Bartholomew, bans the training of Orthodox
priests and refuses residence or work permits for Orthodox clergy coming into
Turkey from outside.
For Benedict and the Vatican, Christianity rather than Islam is the point of
his visit, an attempt to invigorate the "dialogue" between the main western
and eastern variants of Christianity which split in the great schism of the
11th century. There are also some 30,000 Roman Catholics in Turkey, a
congregation the Vatican claims is discriminated against. "It’s a questionof human
rights. The Pope will definitely tackle this issue in Ankara with the
government," said Father Anagnostopulos, a retired biochemist who advises Bartholomew.

Anticipating the row, Ali Bardakoglu, the government bureaucrat and Muslim
cleric who oversees the 100,000 imams and other employees in Turkey’s mosques,
told Reuters: "If the Pope says Christians in Turkey are mistreated, I will
tell him that he has been seriously misinformed." He also signalled that the
government would challenge Benedict on his views on Europe and the EU. As
Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger he espoused the view that Turkey was a Middle Eastern
country that did not belong in the EU. There is no evidence that he has
changed his mind since becoming Pope.
But if Turkey’s difficult relationship with Europe and the fate of Christians
in Turkey are the key issues for the Ankara government and for the Vatican,
the impact of Benedict’s biggest trip will hinge on the gestures he makes
towards Islam. The Vatican announced last night that the Pope was considering a
brief stop at Istanbul’s Blue Mosque as "a sign of respect" after his visit
to St Sophia’s.
"We’re not against what he represents. We’re against him personally for what
he said," said Mr Gulumser at the Fatih mosque. "If he makes bridges and
makes peace, we will respect and like that."
· Backstory: Crusades to Bin Laden
The Christian-Muslim faultline first opened up in the decades following the
founding of Islam in the seventh century, with conflicts in Spain and France
in 722 and 732. The crusades were launched in the 11th century by western
Christians in an attempt to curtail the spread of Islam and to take controlof
the Holy Land. By then Muslims had conquered two-thirds of the ancient
Christian world.
Pope Urban II called for the first crusade at the Council of Clermont on
November 18 1095 after the Seljuk Turks had taken control of Jerusalem. Two
centuries of conflict followed in which parts of the Holy Land alternated between
Christian and Muslim control.
The last of these crusades in 1291 ended in defeat for the Christians with
the expulsion of the Latin Christians from Syria. After 1291, campaigns by
Christians against Muslims continued but began to wane by the 16th century as
papal authority declined. This period saw the fall of Constantinople in 1453,
where the forces of Mehmed II wrested control of the city from its Byzantine
rulers.
Conflicts have continued into the 20th century and include the killing of 1.5
million Armenian Christians by the Ottoman Turkish authorities between 1915
and 1923. In his messages Osama bin Laden refers to western-led conflicts in
the Middle East as a "Zionist-Crusader war against Islam". In 2000 Pope John
Paul II, sought forgiveness for all the past sins of the church, including
the crusades.

EurasiaNet, NY
Nov 25 2006

AZERBAIJAN: COPING WITH THE OIL WINDFALL
Ahto Lobjakas 11/25/06
A EurasiaNet Partner Post from RFE/RL

>From the minute you arrive in Baku, you can smell the oil.

In a glass jar it looks nothing like the black viscous substance one
would expect, but more like petrol. Experts praise Azerbaijani oil as
among the best in the world.

Overheat Concerns

But the oil does have a dark side. According to a recent report by
the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD),
Azerbaijan is one of the world’s fastest-growing economies with over
26 percent growth.

However, local officials admit the economy could "overheat."
Azerbaijan remains an economy in transition whose long-term future
can only be secured by means of a viable non-oil sector. And the
question many are asking is how, in a country where corruption is so
rampant, is that money going to be spent?

Clare Bebbington, a spokeswoman in Baku for multinational oil company
British Petroleum (BP), which is Azerbaijan’s main partner in tapping
the oil wealth, describes managing this wealth as an "enormous
opportunity," but also an enormous challenge.

"In 2006, the government of Azerbaijan will receive around $3 billion
in oil revenues from our projects. At $60 a barrel, the full-cost
revenues are actually around $230 billion. That is an unprecedented
shock for any economy, it’s also many, many times the current levels
of GDP," Bebbington says. "Now, it’s impossible to predict the oil
price, what the oil price will be in the future and BP doesn’t make a
prediction. But what we have tried to do is to be as open as possible
in terms of making some sort of projection about the likely level of
receipts so that people can begin to understand what will happen over
the next decades."

Apart from oil, Azerbaijan is also betting on gas. The Shah Deniz gas
field in the Caspian Sea southeast of Baku is estimated to contain
some 50 to 100 billion cubic meters of gas.

Diversification

One of Azerbaijan’s potential pitfalls is lack of economic
diversification. Mikayel Jabbarov, Azerbaijan’s deputy economic
development minister, says his government is aware of the dangers.

"We’re planning well enough against any severe shocks. Our non-oil
economy is growing very fast, in fact last year, data which analyses
non-oil economic development in Azerbaijan for the years 1999-2005
indicates that the non-oil sector in Azerbaijan on the average has
grown faster than in CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States]
countries, in EBRD countries, and also in Black Sea and Caspian Sea
countries," Jabbarov says.

The government has set up what Jabbarov calls a "hydrocarbon fund" of
$1.5 billion to stabilize the economy. In March, a state-run
investment company with an initial budget of $100 million was created
to give loans to small- and medium-sized companies working outside
the oil industry.

However, within Azerbaijan there is much criticism of the
government’s oil fund. Its critics have said there is little to no
oversight of the body. And corruption is still cancerous in
Azerbaijan. The country languishes near the bottom of the annual
corruption perceptions index drawn up by Transparency International.

Energy Hub

Jabbarov says that Baku also has clear ambitions to become a transit
hub for Central Asian oil and gas.

"What we would like certainly to see, is the continued increase of
transit, [the] continued increase in shipping, in transportation of
hydrocarbons, and in other products as well," Jabbarov says.

Oil tankers already cross the Caspian Sea to feed the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey. Hopes for a trans-Caspian gas
pipeline to supply Turkey and the EU further down the line are
receding, however, despite Baku’s lobbying.

Energy experts in Baku say Western multinationals do not believe
there are sufficient gas resources available cheaply enough in either
Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to justify such an investment. This
augurs well for Russia’s drive to dominate the transit market from
Central Asia.

Problems With Democracy

Azerbaijan’s democracy is still weak, with restrictions on media and
dubious electoral practices. Recently, an Azerbaijani court gave
police the right to detain two journalists for two months for
publishing an article allegedly insulting Islam.

And on November 16, Azerbaijani police broke up an opposition rally
demanding an end to pressure against independent media.

Critics say the EU has turned a blind eye to Azerbaijan’s nastier
democratic practices largely because it is interested in Azerbaijani
oil.

Frozen Conflict

Then there is the unresolved issue of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region
inside the internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan, but
occupied by Armenian troops together with seven neighboring districts
since a 1994 cease-fire ended fighting.

The war with Armenia has bequeathed Azerbaijan more than 800,000
refugees, most living in bleak conditions in and around Baku.

Azerbaijan’s government says it wants the conflict resolved by
peaceful means, but has not ruled out war. According to Deputy
Minister Jabbarov, the defense budget accounts for 15 percent of all
government spending in 2006, and exceeds $1 billion.

Compared to Azerbaijan’s neighbors, that’s a huge sum that’s likely
to be sustained. But in the military, as in every other sector of
public life, a problem remains: where exactly is that money going?

Sometimes the answer to that question is visibly evident. On the
outskirts of Baku, palatial villas perch on hillsides overlooking the
Caspian Sea. Fancy restaurants are packed with foreign and local oil
executives.

But there is another Azerbaijan of rural poverty and refugee camps,
of post-apocalyptic vistas of oil-polluted wastelands — an omen
perhaps of what could happen when the oil runs out.