Month: November 2006

“CACOPHONY OF SIGNALS” SPELLS “NOT WELCOME” FOR TURKS
Spiegel Online, Germany
Nov 8 2006
The European Commission slapped Turkey on the wrist Wednesday for
not opening its ports to Cypriot ships. Turkey has about a month to
shape up, or else. The question is: Or else, what?
The same statement that makes beautiful music in Cyprus strikes a
dissonant and portentous chord in Turkey: “Failure to implement
its obligations in full will affect the overall progress in the
negotiations.” Today, the European Commission released its progress
report on Turkey’s EU accession, telling the country it has until
mid-December to open its ports to Cypriot ships, lest it throw its
European dream into jeopardy.
This isn’t the first time Turkey has gotten a slap on the wrist, and
accession talks have always continued to slog forward. The question
now is whether this warning will have consequences — the answer will
come at the Dec. 14-15 EU Summit.
The report does not please Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, but it
also doesn’t surprise him. He dismisses the idea that EU talks could
collapse entirely: “A suspension, a breakdown of consultations,
the train halting at the station, these are not possible,” he told
reporters. Instead, there may just be “a slowdown” of the process.
That’s something the EU and Turkey can agree on. Olli Rehn, EU
Enlargement Commissioner, referred to the EU’s expansion as “a slow,
slow train coming and not precisely up around the bend.” German
newspapers have weighed in on what this means for Turkey’s future.
“The EU has maneuvered the negotiations with Turkey into a dead end,”
writes the Financial Times Deutschland. The business daily compares
the current state of negotiations to a “train crash.” In this head-on
collision, “the conflict surrounding the divided Mediterranean island
[Cyprus] is blocking negotiations” on Turkey’s side, while on the
European end “it is downright fashionable, so they say in Ankara,
to denounce Turkey’s inadequacies.” In France, the National Assembly
recently made it illegal to deny the “genocide” of Armenians under
Ottoman rule during World War I, and in Germany, the conservative
Bavarian leader Edmund Stoiber on Tuesday demanded a complete halt to
negotiations with Turkey. For Turkish observers and politicians alike,
this “cacophony of signals means but one thing: not welcome.”
The turning of the tide in Turkish public opinion of the EU is no
good, the paper writes, for those who “wish to build a Europe in
which Muslims have their place.”
With no small amount of cynicism, the Suddeutsche Zeitung writes
that Edmund Stoiber is highly suited to criticizing his Turkish
counterparts, since he resembles them so closely. The similarities
are in their politics: “whatever happens, don’t upset the voter
base; speak many great words, only to give up on them later; haggle,
dicker and gamble until the last second — but then turn around and
question your own agreements.” For the center-left daily, Stoiber is
“the Erdogan from Wolfratshausen.” But Stoiber is worse than Erdogan,
the paper concludes, because his motives are purely personal: “Stoiber
is concerned only with himself and the honorable end of his political
career.” Merkel, by contrast, is “considerably more reasonable” and
diplomatic than her Bavarian friend, even though both conservative
politicians share the same goal of preventing full membership for
Turkey in favor of a privileged partnership. Without this diplomatic
approach, the paper believes that “Turkey would be lost for any form
of partnership with the EU.”
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The Handelsblatt, meanwhile, traces much of the current “euro-political
wrangling” to the conflicts within German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s
own coalition of Social Democrats (SPD) and conservatives. Europe
looks towards Berlin for leadership, the business daily writes,
“but in Berlin, the grand coalition is much too preoccupied with
itself.” In regard to Turkey, that means that while conservative
“Edmund Stoiber has once again called for an immediate end to EU
negotiations” with the would-be member state, his supposed social
democratic partner in government “Kurt Beck has demanded the opposite
with equal fervor.” These constant negative signals have become what
the paper calls a “self-fulfilling prophecy,” borrowing the English
term, that has turned Turkey away from Europe and more towards
Russia. The business paper sees this as a failure of the government
to follow the tradition that has allowed “Europe to become a success,
because governments disregarded the daily trends in strategic moments.”
— Alex Bakst and Joshua Gallu, 4 p.m. CET
,1518,44 7257,00.html

SERGE SMESSOV WAS APPOINTED AMBASSADOR OF FRANCE TO ARMENIA
TREND, Azerbaijan
Nov 8 2006
(a1plus.am) – Newly appointed Ambassador extraordinary and
plenipotentiary of France to Armenia Serge Smessov handed the copy
of his credentials to RA Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan. Smessov
replaced Henry Cuny who has finished his diplomatic mission.
Welcoming the guest, Minister Oskanyan wished him good luck in the
fulfillment of his high mission, reports Trend.
During the meeting the Ambassador mentioned that he is already
acquainted with the CIS region. He also informed that prior to arriving
in Armenia he has had meetings with the Armenian community in France.
Serge Smessov was born in 1947. He graduated from the London Royal
college of defense issues. He has held high offices in a number of
countries including Romania, Moldova, Kazakhstan, and others. Smessov
has the diplomatic rank of plenipotentiary minister of second degree.
He has also been awarded a national medal “For merits”. The Ambassador
can speak English, German, Spanish, Russian and Romanian.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

AZERI PRESIDENT HELD DISCUSSIONS WITH THE OSCE HEAD
Author: E. Huseynov
TREND, Azerbaijan
Nov 8 2006
On November 8, the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev met with the
Belgian Foreign Minister, OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Karel De Gucht,
Trend reports with reference to the Azerbaijani Embassy in Belgium.
The sides discussed the co-operation between Azerbaijan and OSCE
and conduct of the democratic reforms in the country. During the
meeting, a special attention was paid to the peaceful settlement of
the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

BALARUS READY TO ASSIST IN SIGNING FINAL DOCUMENT ON NK CONFLICT
Today, Azerbaijan
Nov 8 2006
Official Minsk realizes the essence of Nagorno Karabakh conflict.
“Belarus supports the treaty on violability of borders signed in
1975 and meets commitments took upon it,” said Nikolay Paskevich,
Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary ambassador of Belarus to Azerbaijan,
APA reports.
The ambassador considers that the efforts of changing the borders
result in blood, loss and torture. He noted that OSCE Minsk group
performing mediating mission, was formed as a result of the conference
held in Minsk and announced that official Minsk is ready to pave the
way for signing final document on Nagorno Karabakh conflict.
“The problem of refugees is familiar to our country. After the accident
in Chernobyl atomic power station the country faced with the problem
of refugees. The accident caused the damage of $235bn; this figure
is 32 times more than Belarusian budget for 1985. We understand the
problem of refugees most of all. I hope Nagorno Karabakh conflict will
be solved peacefully, according to the international legal norms,”
the ambassador said.
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AIR ARABIA TO FLY YEREVAN
Trade Arabia, Bahrain
Nov 8 2006
Air Arabia, the first low-fares airline in the Middle East and North
Africa, will fly direct from Sharjah to Yerevan-Armenia, which is
one of the latest additions to the Middle East carrier’s destinations
portfolio.
Yerevan is the fifth new destination announced by Air Arabia in the
last few weeks and promises to attract many travellers as it is only
three hours away from Sharjah airport and therefore a very convenient
attraction for nature inspired week-end breaks.
Yerevan is the capital of Armenia and counts 1.2 million inhabitants,
which is 40 per cent of Armenia’s total population. Travellers will
be enchanted to walk through one of the only cities in the world to
have its authentic birth certificate and thus, proving it is one of
the oldest on earth, said a spokesman.
As a tourist destination, Yerevan will provide UAE travellers the
possibility to walk in a green city, visit numerous monuments from
previous Soviet Union Republic, shop in traditional boutiques and
markets, attend performances at the Yerevan Opera-pride of the city
and discover the beauty of the Mount Ararat, capped with snow and
reflecting the beauty of a city that shines with pink because of its
tuf stone.
“Yerevan is a unique destination for us as it is still uncharted
territory for many residents and travellers. We are very proud to
bring our passengers the opportunity to discover historical cities
and learn more about destinations that are out of the ordinary.” said
Adel Ali, CEO of Air Arabia.
Air Arabia flies to over 30 destinations across 20 countries,
including recent additions like Chennai and Thiruvanthapuram in India,
Latakia in Syria and Katmandu in Nepal carrying over two million
passengers.

DIVISIONS OF ARMENIAN ARMED FORCES BROKE CEASEFIRE REGIME AGAIN
Author: Sh.Jaliloglu
TREND< Azerbaijan Nov 8 2006 On November 7, the divisions of the Armenian Armed Forces shot the positions of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces with machine-guns the whole day. The enemy was made silent with response shots, Trend Regional Correspondent reports. It should be mentioned that the explosions are heard often in the Azerbaijani territories occupied by Armenians, but the local inhabitants do not know the reasons of the explosions.

ARMENIAN GOVT. OFFERS 10% IN ARMENTEL TO RUSSIA’S VIMPELCOM
TREND< Azerbaijan Nov 8 2006 (RIA Novosti) - Armenia will sell VimpelCom [RTS: VIMP] the remaining 10% in one of the country's two telecom companies on condition it abandons further expansion plans, a minister said Wednesday. The Armenian government has offered its stake in Armentel to VimpelCom, which has already closed a deal to buy the other 90% from Greek telecom group Hellenic Telecommunications Organization SA (OTE) for 341.9 million euros ($434.5 million), Communications Minister Andranik Manukyan said, reports Trend. VimpelCom, which outpaced the Russian mobile market leader MTS [RTS: MTSS] at the tender to buy 40% of the Armenian cellular telecommunications market, undertakes to pay the Armenian company's liabilities of about 40 million euros ($51 million). The deal is to be closed by the end of 2006, VimpelCom said in a news release. Hellenic Telecommunications Organization SA (OTE) purchased Armentel in 1997 for $142.5 million and has since invested $300 million in the company, whose earnings in 2005 stood at 110 million euros ($140 million). Armentel has about 600,000 fixed-line and 400,000 mobile service subscribers, and operates in the GSM 900 and CDMA standards.

OSCE CHAIRMAN-IN-OFFICE PERSONAL REPRESENTATIVE RECEIVED MANDATE TO HOLD INVESTIGATION OF CASES OF BREAKING CEASEFIRE ON AZERBAIJANI-ARMENIAN FRONTLINE
TREND< Azerbaijan Nov 8 2006 The personal representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Andrzej Kasprzyk, has received the mandate from the Organization to hold an investigation into the case of breaking the ceasefire on the Azerbaijani-Armenian frontline, Kasprzyk briefed the media on 7 November in Yerevan during the reception for the participants of the international conference "South Caucasus: perception of the region and challenges". "The OSCE gave its consent so that I have a separate mandate to hold the investigations," he said. According to Kasprzyk, the budget needs to be increased for personal representatives for this purpose. "I require experts, especially for arms and ballistics," he stated, Trend reports with reference to Novosti-Armenia. He added that direct co-operation between the commanders of both sides is also required to carry out the investigations. "However, at present such co-operation does not exist," Kasprzyk said.

THE EU SHOULD BE PLAYING IRAN AND RUSSIA OFF AGAINST EACH OTHER
Julian Evans
Eurasian Home Analytical Resource, Russia
Nov 8 2006
The European Union is increasingly anxious about being over-reliant on
gas imports from Russia. The Kremlin, it is clear, intends to wield
its huge oil and gas reserves as its main bargaining chip in foreign
relations. The EU is concerned that its authoritarian neighbour to
the east has it “over a barrel”, as one British MP put it. Or, as
the Daily Telegraph recently bewailed “The Russian bear could punch
our lights out!”
If the EU is serious about reducing its dependency on Russian gas,
then it needs to look quickly at Russia’s biggest gas rival – Iran.
Iran is the second-biggest source of gas in the world. It has 18%
of the world’s gas supplies, compared to Russia’s 25%, but experts
believe over 60% of Iran’s reserves are still undeveloped.
The EU should be doing everything it can to foster competition between
these two countries in the energy sphere. It should be striving to
strike bilateral deals for Iranian gas, offering financial support for
Iran’s planned pipelines to India and Pakistan and other projects,
and generally standing four-square with Iran over its global energy
expansion.
The argument the EU should make to Iran (and to America) is that
the country is fighting last century’s war by struggling to become a
nuclear power. If Iran really wants to become a great power again,
it should argue, it should seek to develop its energy markets and
make the rest of the world – the US included – reliant on it. Energy,
not nuclear missiles, is the new weapon of the twenty-first century
great power. The sooner Iran lets go of its outdated ambitions to
be a nuclear super-power, the quicker it can become a modern energy
super-power.
Iran should resist an energy alliance with Russia, the EU should argue,
because Russia will always be in the driving seat. Gazprom only ever
takes a controlling stake in projects, and it will involve itself
in Iranian projects precisely with the object of protecting itself
from Iranian competition and stymieing the development of Iran’s gas
resources. If Iran wants to develop its resources quickly, it should
look to a more efficient and technologically developed partner, such
as Total, OMV or Statoil. Western banks can bring far more capital
to support Iranian energy projects than Russian banks ever could.
But we are not seeing this energy alliance with Iran happen. Instead,
we are seeing the EU once again outmanoeuvred by Gazprom, because
Gazprom thinks two moves ahead, and the EU merely reacts, usually
with panic and indignation.
This weekend, Gazprom bought a controlling stake in its joint
venture with Armenia, ArmRosGas, which controls Armenia’s domestic
gas distribution network and a soon-to-be-completed gas pipeline with
Iran. That pipeline could have helped free both Armenia and Georgia
from dependence on Russian gas, and also have been a conduit for
Iranian gas into western Europe. But the Armenians, unwooed by the EU,
sold the controlling stake to their Russian masters for $119 million.
The same week that this deal was being signed in Moscow with Armenia’s
president, the petroleum minister of India, Murli Deorla, was also in
town. He announced yesterday that India had agreed to let Gazprom join
a planned pipeline from Iran to India and Pakistan. He said: “Russia
will join the Iran pipeline. I spoke to Pakistan minister for petroleum
and natural resources Amanullah Khan Jadoon (on Russian participation)
on Tuesday and will be speaking to the Iranian minister later”.
So on the two most important new projects bringing Iranian gas to the
outside world, Gazprom is involved, and possibly even in control. A
good weekend’s work, fellows.
These appear to be the first decisive steps in a Kremlin initiative
to forge an energy alliance with Iran. Also last week, Valery Yazev,
head of the Duma energy committee and Gazprom’s top lobbyist in the
Duma, called for the creation of a gas cartel involving CIS countries,
and including Iran, to counter the ‘cartel’ of European consumers. The
plan was prompted, he said, by the refusal of France and Germany
to be played off against the rest of Europe by president Putin, who
offered Germany the chance to be a hub for Russian supplies to the
rest of Europe when he visited Germany in September.
Merkel refused, sensible lady.
Alexander Medvedev, deputy chairman of Gazprom, yesterday told me that
he viewed participation with Iran as “very profitable. We hope to use
the joint venture to become involved in extraction and development
[of Iranian gas], and possibly help supply gas through the joint
venture to Western Europe, as well as Pakistan and India”.
So Russia is already a few steps ahead of the EU in this game. An
energy alliance with Iran would tie up around 45% of the world’s
gas supplies.
However, the game is not over yet. Luckily for us, the US and UK
governments thought slightly ahead in the early 1990s, and secured
both the BTC and Shah Deniz pipelines, which will bring oil and gas
from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to Europe, without going through Russia.
There is also a plan, now being put on the front-burner by the EU,
to build a new Nabucco pipeline from the Caspian region to Austria,
with OMV the main backer of the project. Gazprom has also asked to be
involved in the project. Of course – as soon as the Kremlin signs the
European Energy Charter. The project is intended to take Azeri gas,
but should also take Iranian gas too.
Am I being naïve, arguing for EU participation with Iran, for its
support for Iran’s gas industry, which will only enrich this dangerous
and authoritarian country?
Firstly, the lure of Iran becoming a global energy super-power might
possibly be sufficient to persuade it away from its path of becoming
a nuclear power, one of many all over the Middle East. It would never
be a dominant nuclear power, but it could be a dominant gas power,
one of the most powerful in the world.
Secondly, when it comes to energy supplies, it’s not a question of
whether to work with illiberal authoritarian regimes or not. It’s
a question of trying to balance one authoritarian regime against
another, so you’re not too dependent on any one. Every energy
power in the world, with the exception of Norway, is illiberal and
authoritarian. Dick Cheney, for all his evilness, at least realizes
this, and worked earlier than any EU bureaucrat to diversify CIS
countries away from Moscow’s control.
We should be doing the same with Iran, though unfortunately the US
seems to have decided on an altogether more direct method for securing
Iranian energy supplies – and it is their belligerent rhetoric, and
the EU’s typically slow and confused energy policy, that is helping
drive Iran and Russia together.
Julian Evans, a British freelance journalist based in Moscow.
November 8, 2006
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AS DEMOCRATS SWEEP IN, NEW ARMENIAN BILLS ON THE HORIZON
Hurriyet, Turkey
Nov 8 2006
The Washington based Armenian lobby has announced that mid-term
elections are a “reason for Turkey to worry” with regards to a possible
new Armenian genocide bill on the horizon. Aram Hamparian, the director
of the Armenian ANCA foundation, has asserted that a majority Democrat
House of Representative would act in the Armenians’ favor, and has
noted that US Congressman Adam Schiff is already preparing a bill on
the so-called Armenian genocide to be debated during the next term.
Also acting in the Armenian lobby’s favor is the fact that
Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi, the soon-to-be Speaker of the House, has
been supporting Armenian bills in the US capital for the past 20 years.