Month: June 2005

Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
June 24 2005
Azerbaijan, Armenia to be in CE focus in the coming months

Baku, June 23, AssA-Irada
Azerbaijan and Armenia will be in focus of the Council of Europe over
the coming months, says chairman of the CE Ministerial Committee,
Portuguese Foreign Minister Diogo Freitas Amaral said.
Speaking to a meeting of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of
Europe, Amaral said that a number of documents were passed at the
summit held in Warsaw in spring outlining implementation of future CE
objectives.
`First of all, we must make sure that CE member states comply with
its standards in the area of democratic development, human rights and
the rule of law. Therefore, South Caucasus will be in our focus over
the next few months, considering the important developments relating
to the referendum on constitutional changes in Armenia and the
parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan.’*

Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
June 24 2005
NATO official discontent over Russian arms transfer

Baku, June 23, AssA-Irada
If the Armenian government grows discontent with the stationing of
Russian bases in its territory, NATO will assist Yerevan on this
issue, said special envoy of the NATO Secretary General on South
Caucasus and Central Asia. In an interview with journalists from S
Caucasus countries in Brussels, Robert Simons praised the last round
of the Russo-Georgian talks. In conclusion of the discussions, Moscow
stated its readiness to honor the commitments it made at the OSCE
summit in Istanbul, Turkey in 1999 and pulled out its military bases
from Georgia.
Although Simons welcomed the withdrawal of Russian bases from
Georgia, he voiced discontent with the fact that Russian forces
remain in Armenia, as the latter may grow discontent over Russia’s
military presence in its territory.
`Russia has maintained its military base in Armenia. This is in line
with the Treaty on Conventional Arms in Europe. On the other hand,
this is undesirable, as certain challenges may arise if Armenia grows
discontent with Russian military presence in its territory.’
The NATO official said the presence of Russian bases in Armenian
territory is not likely to affect NATO-Armenia relations.
`This is not a problem for NATO. The alliance does not build ties
with its with partner states based on competition and does not see
Russia as its rival in the Caucasus.’
Simons said that in terms of its ties with NATO, Georgia is far ahead
of Azerbaijan and Armenia and is the only Caucasus state to have
expressed its willingness to enter the alliance.
Touching upon the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Upper Garabagh,
Simons said NATO fully supports OSCE and does not aspire to replace
its mediating Minsk Group. The alliance does not see itself as an
intermediary in the conflict settlement but `will discuss’ the issue
if it is offered a greater role in the process, he added.*

PRESS OFFICE
Diocese of the Armenian Church of America (Eastern)
630 Second Avenue, New York, NY 10016
Contact: Jake Goshert, Coordinator of Information Services
Tel: (212) 686-0710 Ext. 60; Fax: (212) 779-3558
E-mail: [email protected]
Website:
June 24, 2005
___________________
CATHOLICOS LEADS ARMENIAN CHURCH DELEGATION IN BUILDING A HOME
Though faced with hours of hard work, from painting walls to pounding
nails, they couldn’t help but smile as they labored. For they knew they
were helping others as they worked on a Habitat for Humanity house in
Detroit, MI.
“It was truly a gift to be able to help another person by offering them
a helping hand,” said Archbishop Khajag Barsamian, Primate of the
Diocese of the Armenian Church of America (Eastern), who joined His
Holiness Karekin II, Supreme Patriarch and Catholicos of All Armenians,
at the Habitat for Humanity worksite on June 22, 2005.
The Catholicos arrived in Detroit at the invitation of Ken Benson, the
president of Habitat for Humanity’s Michigan chapter. He flew in on
Tuesday, June 21, following his pontifical visit to the Western Diocese,
on a plane provided by Richard Manoogian’s Masco Corporation.
The house the Catholicos and other church leaders worked on is being
funded by the Masco corporation and worked on by volunteers from that
company.
“We were able to talk and work alongside the owners of the new house, a
nice young family, and to see that our small efforts and those of the
many dedicated volunteers for Masco were changing their lives,” the
Primate said. “It was a very Christian feeling, to help the less
fortunate make new lives for themselves with your own hands.”
During his stop in Michigan, the Catholicos spoke about Habitat for
Humanity and expressed appreciation that this organization was reaching
out to those in need. By working to alleviate poverty, he said, they
were helping to bring about peace. It is a mission shared by the
Armenian Church.
MEETING WITH FORMER PRESIDENT CARTER
During the work session, the Catholicos had a chance for a private
meeting with Habitat for Humanity’s most well-known supporter, former
U.S. President Jimmy Carter. The Catholicos was joined by Archbishop
Barsamian; Archbishop Hovnan Derderian, Primate of the Western Diocese;
Bishop Bagrat Galstanyan, Primate of the Canadian Diocese; Bishop Vicken
Aykazian, Eastern Diocesan legate; and Richard Manoogian.
“The meeting was very important. There was a very quality conversation
between them,” said Bishop Aykazian of the 30-minute conversation during
which the Catholicos invited the former president to visit Armenia.
Carter said he would see if he could accept the Catholicos’ invitation.
HABITAT FOR HUMANITY ARMENIA
There is a very active Habitat for Humanity International chapter in
Armenia. Started just about three years ago, it is the fastest growing
chapter in Eastern Europe. Last year volunteers completed its 100th
home.
Bishop Aykazian left for Armenia on Friday, June 24, 2005, with Habitat
for Humanity Michigan leader Ken Benson. They will be joined in Armenia
by Frank Griswold, the presiding bishop of the Episcopal Church in
America. They are going to Armenia to speak with representatives of the
Armenian government about strengthening official support for the
organization. The Armenian Church has been a vital partner for Habitat
for Humanity Armenia from the earliest stages.
“It is important because one of the missions of the church is to help
the poor and the suffering and those who are hungry,” Bishop Aykazian
said. “To house these people is the first step, so they can at least
keep their bodies from heat and the cold. Building them homes is the
first step to solving problems of the poor.”
Many parishes and other non-Armenian organizations send volunteers to
build with Habitat for Humanity in Armenia. This year 13 groups will be
traveling to Armenia to lend their labor, Bishop Aykazian said. The
goal for this year’s construction schedule is to build 22 new homes in
Armenia.
Bishop Aykazian, who said he was honored with the opportunity to bless
the 100th house built by Habitat for Humanity Armenia, said volunteers
give of their time and energy because they go away with a warmth in
their heart.
“When I saw the people moving in, I couldn’t have been happier. Just
seeing the smile on the face of these poor people, it was moving,” he
said. “You see their smiles and nothing else. You just can’t stop
yourself from crying from happiness when you see them.”
— 6/24/05
E-mail photos available on request. Photos also viewable in the News
and Events section of the Eastern Diocese’s website,
PHOTO CAPTION (1): His Holiness Karekin II, Supreme Patriarch and
Catholicos of All Armenians, works on a house for Habitat for Humanity
in Detroit, MI, on Wednesday, June 22, 2005.
PHOTO CAPTION (2): Archbishop Khajag Barsamian, Primate of the Eastern
Diocese, along with other Habitat for Humanity volunteers, talk to the
future owners of a house being built in Detroit, MI, during a stop at
the worksite by the Catholicos on Wednesday, June 22, 2005.
PHOTO CAPTION (3): Heading to the Habitat for Humanity house being
sponsored by the Masco Corporation, Bishop Vicken Aykazian, legate of
the Eastern Diocese, right, joins the primates of the three North
American Armenian Church dioceses, from left, Archbishop Hovnan
Derderian, Primate of the Western Diocese; Archbishop Khajag Barsamian,
Primate of the Eastern Diocese; and Bishop Bagrat Galstanyan, Primate of
the Canadian Diocese.
PHOTO CAPTION (4): Kevork Toroyan, chair of the Diocesan Legate
Committee, left, joins Legate Bishop Vicken Aykazian; Ken Benson, the
president of Habitat for Humanity’s Michigan chapter; and National
Council of Churches General Secretary Dr. Rev. Robert Edgar.

Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
The Jamestown Foundation
June 24 2005
CIS COLLECTIVE SECURITY TREATY ORGANIZATION HOLDS SUMMIT
By Vladimir Socor
Friday, June 24, 2005

Putin and Belarusian President Lukashenko at the CIS CSTO meeting. On
June 22-23, Moscow hosted a meeting of the heads of state of the CIS
Collective Security Treaty Organization (Russia, Belarus, Armenia,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan) and concurrent meetings of the
CSTO countries’ ministers of foreign affairs, defense ministers, and
secretaries of the national security councils.
The meetings approved a framework plan on CSTO development in two
stages — through 2010 and beyond — as well as plans to upgrade the
Collective Rapid Deployment Forces in Central Asia and to create an
inter-state commission for handling deliveries and servicing of
military equipment at preferential prices. These measures have been
on the agenda for several years but hardly showed any results.
Far more significantly, this summit decided to separate the CIS Joint
Air Defense System (nominally of ten countries) from that of the
CSTO’s planned United Air Defense System (six member countries). The
Joint System consists of forces under national command, exercising
periodically under coordination from a center in Russia, and regards
each country’s airspace as distinct and sovereign. The planned United
System consists of forces under a single — that is, Russian —
planning system and command, and it only recognizes a single CSTO
airspace. Russian officials explained the need for separating the two
systems by noting that certain CIS countries are not CSTO members and
aspire to join NATO.
Russian officials moved unobtrusively but unmistakably to exploit
American discomfiture over Uzbekistan. Thus, Minister of Foreign
Affairs Sergei Lavrov, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, Security
Council Secretary Igor Ivanov, and CSTO Secretary-General Nikolai
Bordyuzha all characterized the recent “events” in Andijan
unambiguously as an assault by international terrorism and radical
Islam against Uzbekistan. Citing international obligations to assist
states under terrorist attack, they announced Russia’s support for
the Uzbek leadership’s efforts to stabilize the situation in Andijan
and throughout the country. These statements form part of an
intensifying exchange of political overtures between Moscow and
Tashkent in the wake of the Andijan rebellion, which by the same
token has deepened the misunderstandings between Tashkent and
Washington.
With President Vladimir Putin joining in, those same Russian
officials criticized the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan for
failing to suppress “terrorist training bases, including those
supported by certain intelligence services” (Putin) and for
tolerating the booming export of Afghan heroin to Russia and Europe.
Rating the coalition’s efforts as “very ineffective thus far,” Putin
and other Russian officials hinted that the CSTO is prepared to
consider stepping in. The meeting discussed possible measures to
increase and coordinate assistance to Afghanistan, as well as setting
up “a working group to coordinate with Afghan structures” and a joint
anti-drug authority.
Kyrgyzstan’s post-revolution defense minister, Ismail Isakov, was
authorized by the defense ministers’ session to tell the press that
the creation of a second Russian military base in Kyrgyzstan is
intended. It will, apparently, carry a CSTO label. The CSTO’s
Russian-led military staff has been tasked to determine the possible
missions, troop level, and armament of such a base, and whether it
should be designated as temporary or permanent. Another
post-revolution leader, Felix Kulov, had publicly called last month
for the deployment of a second Russian military base in Kyrgyzstan,
to be located in Osh.
By contrast, Kazakhstan opposed a Russian initiative — presumably
supported by others — to create a joint standing conventional
military force for Central Asia within the CSTO’s framework. Kazakh
Defense Minister General Mukhtar Altynbayev told the press, “Creating
a cumbersome force for permanent stationing would be worthless.” Due
to Kazakhstan’s position, further discussion of this issue was
deferred until the next meeting some months from now (Interfax, June
23).
In the session of Ministers of Foreign Affairs, certain countries
that were not publicly identified successfully resisted proposals on
financing the CSTO. One defeated proposal would have collected
long-overdue contributions from Central Asian member countries to the
CSTO’s budget from the years 1996-2003. Another, more topical measure
that was defeated would have required member countries to co-finance
the development of command-and-control systems for the Collective
Rapid Deployment Forces in Central Asia. The only financial issues
that appeared to be resolved would increase salaries of CSTO
Secretariat personnel by 20% — provided that the extra funding is
taken out of other items of the CSTO budget, so as to avoid a net
increase.
Loyalists had their day, however. Armenian President Robert Kocharian
professed to find comfort “in the CSTO’s lineup, one in which we do
not disagree among ourselves, but strive for practical results”
(Interfax, June 23). Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka
praised the CSTO as one of the centers of power that provide
counterweights to the “unipolar dictatorship of a single super-power”
[the United States]. Igor Ivanov rewarded his ally by denouncing “the
external forces’ threats of interference in Belarus, where they are
trying to impose political decisions. We reject this kind of actions”
(RIA, June 22).
For the first time in the CSTO’s history, the Russian military now
plans to hold joint ground-force exercises in the organization’s
“western region” and “southern region” — that is, in Belarus and in
Armenia. These exercises are scheduled to be held on the
command-and-staff level in 2006. Thus far, the CSTO has only held
joint ground-force and combined exercises in its Central Asian
region.
At this summit, Putin took over the chairmanship of the Collective
Security Council (the top political authority of the CSTO) from
Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev. That and other CSTO posts
are supposed to rotate annually in the Russian alphabetical order of
the member countries’ names. In this case, Kyrgyzstan was
unceremoniously skipped. Next year, moreover, the CSTO summit will be
held in Belarus, and the honor of chairing the organization will
devolve to Lukashenka.

RIA Novosti, Russia
June 24 2005
THE CIS AND BALTIC PRESS ON RUSSIA
ARMENIA
Statements on the need to develop the Euroatlantic vector of
integration are complemented with the idea of maintaining the
pro-Russian vector in Armenia’s policy. “We have wonderful relations
with Russia and good relations with individual NATO states, and these
relations are not confronted to each other. On the country, this
helps create security guarantees” for Armenia. (Hayastani
Hanrapetutyun, June 16.)
But Western experts point out that Armenia can become independent
only by curtailing Russian presence in its policy and economy.
“Armenia has accepted the pro-Russian model of political
development… Russia is strengthening its presence in Armenia, in
particular in the energy sphere… This is extremely dangerous for
Armenia… We should find a balance where Armenia would not be
pro-Russian or pro-American but would have its own view of the
situation… The programs of the European Union might help find such
a balance between Russia and the U.S.” (Aikakan Zhamanak, June 18.)
The withdrawal of part of property of the Russian military bases from
Georgia to Armenia is a lively discussed issue. “The Armenian
authorities are making another unwise and dangerous step. They are
trying to counteract the disruption of the political and economic
balance by creating a military imbalance in the South Caucasus by
moving Russian military hardware from Georgia to Armenia.” (Novoye
Vremya, June 16.)

BAKU Today, Azerbaijan
June 24 2005
PACE committee on Karabakh to meet Thursday
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe committee on
Nagorno Karabakh will meet for the first time on Thursday.
On the first day of the PACE session, Wednesday, PACE approved the
composition of its temporary committee. It comprises parliament
members from Baku and Yerevan, chairs of separate PACE committees,
and the rapporteurs on Azerbaijan and Armenia, a representative of
the Azeri delegation at PACE Asim Mollazada said.
Mollazada, who chairs the organization committee of the Democratic
Reforms Party, will represent the Azerbaijani opposition at the PACE
committee.

Islamic Republic News Agency, Iran
June 24 2005
Followers of religious minorities massively taking part in polls
Tehran, June 24, IRNA
9th Presidential Election-Armenian Community
A large number of Iranians from Armenian community from east and
northeast of Tehran attended in “Ershad Hosseinyeh” polling station
at noon and cast their votes.
One of the Tehrani armenian Muni Sarkisyan said after casting his
vote “We are practicing our legal and natural rights as an Iranian
citizen”.
He said, “All Iranians from different ethnics or religions have the
right to participate in the election, so we, Armenians as the biggest
religious minority in the country, have come to the polling stations
to elect the best person to manage the country.
According to the same report, other religious minorities like
Zoroastrians, Jews, Assyrians and Chaldeans also attended in the same
place to elect president.

AllAfrica.com, Africa
June 24 2005
Venaani Warns Against Ethnicity And Tribalism
New Era (Windhoek)
June 23, 2005
Posted to the web June 24, 2005
Frederick Philander
Windhoek
“I TABLE the motion on tribalism and ethnicity cognisant of the fact
that our country was disadvantaged by 100 years of colonisation and
white minority apartheid rule.”
With these words, young and firebrand DTA parliamentarian, McHenry
Venaani, yesterday motivated this motion in the National Assembly.

“Many African nations have gone through long and protracted
conflicts, influenced and sometimes fuelled by ethnicity and
tribalism. Our nation’s human struggle, too, was long and bitter.
Finally, apartheid was defeated and a dream Namibia became a
reality,” Venaani reminded the House from the outset.
In his opinion, ethnic conflict comes a long way from biblical times
and continues to prevail in modern times.
“In recent times, the Turkish government was suspected and accused of
murdering 1,5 million Armenians, the Nazis in Germany killed six
million Jews, mass murders occurred in some parts of the world as
well as Africa in particular, inspired and fostered by ethnic
conflicts. Granted, ethnicity exists anywhere where the human race
manifests itself. The challenge is how best it can be managed by
nations,” the DTA man, who also referred to the Rwanda and Burundi
conflicts between the Hutus and the Tutsis, said.
“This is an example of how ethnicity can impact negatively on
society. Such actions of brutality and contempt of human rights
violations should and must never be repeated on the African
continent.
However, the current conflicts in the DRC, Eritrea and Darfour region
in Sudan are all clear manifestations of eminent ethnic conflicts
that threaten human development, peace and social progress,” he
eloquently warned the House.
According to him, the eminent public opinion on tribalism and
ethnicity that exists warrants a national introspection and
stocktaking.
“Namibia as a country will and shall not remain immune to ethnic
conflicts that may lead to any extent with time. The attempts of the
Caprivi secessionists are clear warning signs of ethnic conflict in
our country. Petty border disputes between ethnic groups and
sub-clans in the country should also not be taken lightly,” he
cautioned.
In his opinion, Namibians should be pro-active and macro-manage
ethnic diversity that manifests itself in the country.
“No ethnic group in this country represents 53 percent of the total
population on its own. We inherited unbalanced apartheid structures
such as the civil service, the armed and police forces and replaced
them all with the same unbalanced structures, only in black fashion,
since the former was a white dominated structure,” he charged.
He said the spread of ethnicity and tribalism should be controlled
especially in appointments in the public sector.
“I do not believe that competency should be swallowed by ethnic
representation demands, but surely no one ethnic group can claim
higher competency levels in all spheres than others. Persons
currently benefiting from this practice of tribalism, either by
accident or per intention, cannot be blamed. However, the policy
implementers should be collectively blamed,” he said.
He charged: “Our country is experiencing a dangerous and alarming
practice of tribalism and ethnicity. At every level of governance, it
is clear that one observes employees that either hail from one
specific village region and tribe. Nearly each department is stocked
with individuals in charge from one specific tribe or region. The
question is why does it happen that some ethnic groups dominate
others beyond proportions?”
He also cited examples in the public sector where one tribe dominates
others, such as in bursary allocation in the Ministry of Education.
“Since 1992, bursaries allocated represented 84 percent given to one
specific tribe. This is an unhealthy situation that for the next 10
to 20 years, academic and tertiary jobs will be exclusively allocated
to this group, evidence of a perpetuation of certain ethnic groups or
tribes advancement. Members of this tribe shall remain job creators
and the less fortunate tribes would be jobseekers if a remedy is not
found for this imbalance,” Venaani, who charged that the same
tendencies are present in the police, foreign service and civil
servant permanent secretaries, argued.
“Ethnicity and tribalism is not among the top levels alone, but also
at lower levels of governance such as in the prison services. Very
few other ethnic groups can claim non-dominance in certain government
structures.
With this in mind I call for the appointment of a national group to
research the prevalence and impact of ethnicity and tribalism at all
levels of government and the society,” he suggested.
The motion also asked for the establishment of an ad hoc
parliamentary committee to investigate and research other countries
that have developed policies or laws.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Kazinform, Kazakhstan
June 24 2005
CIS military exercise taking place in Russia
DUSHANBE-ASTANA, June 24.KAZINFORM. – The first phase of CIS combined
military exercises began at the Telemba firing range in the Chita
region in southwestern Russia Friday.
The exercise will last until July 10, Russian Defense Minister Sergei
Ivanov told a press conference in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, following a
meeting of the CIS Council of Defense Ministers, Kazinform quotes RIA
Novosti.
The Russian Air Force, the Baltic Fleet’s anti-aircraft defense units
and Belarus’ anti-aircraft defense troops are taking part in the
exercises.
“The second phase will take place on Kazakhstan territory in
Saryshagan, from August 5-12,” Ivanov said.
The second phase involves Kazakhstan’s air force units and
Kyrgyzstan’s anti-aircraft units.
The third phase will be held in Ashuluk, Russia’s Astrakhan region on
the Volga, from August 22-31. Field firing practice is scheduled for
August 30.
That phase is designed to train interaction between Armenia’s
anti-aircraft defense forces, Belarus’ air force and anti-aircraft
defense units, Russia’s air forces, and Tajikistan’s anti-aircraft
defense forces. Kazakhstan’s airborne defense forces officials will
observe.
Ivanov said the CIS defense ministers had discussed the idea behind
the exercises at their meeting today.
“The council approved the idea behind the exercises whose
participants are expected to train using national forces and
anti-aircraft defenses in the Eastern European, Caucasian and Central
Asian regions of the collective security zone,” Ivanov said.
The council looked into the CIS Coordinating Committee on
Anti-Aircraft Defense activities and outlined the major areas in
which to develop the CIS’ unified anti-aircraft defense system
between 2006 and 2010.
The defense ministers also discussed flight safety figures from 2004,
decided on a schedule of joint events for 2006, approved documents on
the international classification of the Armed Forces’ supplies and
approved a CIS organization to do research in military metrology and
ensure metrological support.

The Messenger, Georgia
June 24 2005
Azerbaijani revolution imminent?

The Messenger, Tbilisi, 24.06.2005 — There is increased speculation
that another velvet revolution may be looming following the recent
demonstrations in Baku, especially if the government fails to hold
parliamentary elections scheduled for November, or the elections are
believed to have been rigged. Can Ilham Aliev’s administration
placate the Azeri people quickly enough or will they fall foul of a
wave of revolutions sweeping across the CIS sphere?

Perhaps realizing the dangers of further destabilization in the
region, Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili, after openly
supporting the Orange revolution in Ukraine, has remained
conspicuously quiet on the possibilities of revolution in Georgia’s
eastern neighbor. Regime change in Baku could not only potentially
destabilize Azerbaijan, it could potentially lead to renewed
hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia as well.

Nevertheless, with or without the Georgian president’s intervention,
a velvet revolution in Azerbaijan is certainly a possibility. The
current situation is reminiscent of that in Georgia in the run-up to
the November 2, 2003 elections – with an increasingly united
opposition tapping into the growing discontent among ordinary
Azerbaijanis.

The situation also resembles that of Azerbaijan in the run-up to its
2003 elections, just one month before those in Georgia. But in
contrast to Shevardnadze’s government, the Azerbaijani authorities
were able at that time to prevent sporadic demonstrations from
developing into fully-fledged revolution. This year may be different,
not least because of the precedents set in Tbilisi, Kiev and Bishkek,
which have demonstrated to people across the whole post-Soviet space
that corrupt governments that hold onto power through conducting
fraudulent elections can in fact be removed without resort to
bloodshed.

With scheduled elections still six months away, however, Ilham Aliev
is in a position to prevent a velvet revolution from taking place –
the question is how to achieve this. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan offer
two plausible alternatives. While in Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev
is seeking to introduce a number of reforms in an effort to prevent
the sort of revolutionary change seen in neighboring Kyrgyzstan, in
Uzbekistan police reportedly massacred hundreds of protesters in
Andijan last month.

The first sanctioned opposition demonstration in a number of months,
which took place in Baku on June 5, hints that the Azeri
administration may be contemplating pursuing the Kazakh model. It is
uncertain how many people attended the rally – the government claims
that only 3,000 were present while the opposition declared a turnout
of 75,000 – but the fact that the protest took place at all is
encouraging. Then earlier this week a reported 20,000 people, many
wearing orange, held a rally in Baku to call for free and fair
elections. The demonstration was organized by Azadligi, a union of
the People’s Front Reformist Wing, Musavat and Democratic opposition
parties.

The Azeri opposition have laid down an ultimatum that if the murder
of Elham Huseinov, the editor of a local oppositional magazine
Monitoring, is not investigated objectively, if no independent
television channel is created, and if significant changes are not
made to the Electoral Code, then there will be a democratic
revolution in Baku. “We are not fighting for parliamentary seats, but
to return the parliament to the people. If they do not create the
appropriate conditions for fair elections then all of society will
come out and remove this regime,” states Ali Kerimli, the head of the
People’s Front, as quoted by Rezonansi.

The government has so far downplayed the possibility of a revolution
taking place, Chair of the ruling faction Mamed Alizade stating that
there will be no revolution because “about 80-85% of Azerbaijan’s
population supports Ilham Aliev.” If this is indeed the case, then
Aliev obviously has little to worry about. But if opposition support
is in fact stronger, then the administration would do well to begin
introducing reforms quickly. The last elections in Azerbaijan, in
2003, were widely condemned as fraudulent: if the November elections
this year are also perceived to have been rigged by the government,
there is every chance that Azeris will take to the streets to demand
that the president step-down.

Should that happen, it can only be hoped that neither side will
resort to violence, and that events in Baku do not spark region-wide
instability.