Azeri defence chief’s visit heralds new stage in ties with USA, analyst says

Yeni Musavat, Baku
30 Mar 04

Azerbaijan and the USA are about to expand their military ties and
Russia cannot prevent this, prominent Azerbaijani political analyst
Rasim Musabayov has told Yeni Musavat newspaper in the wake of the
Azerbaijani defence minister’s visit to the USA. Upgrading the
infrastructure and improving the level of the local personnel are on
Washington’s agenda, the analyst said. The following is the text of
Z. Safaroglu’s report by Azerbaijani newspaper Yeni Musavat on 30
March headlined “What did Abiyev bring from America?” and subheaded
“Rasim Musabayov: The stage of closer cooperation with the USA begins
in Azerbaijan”; subheadings inserted editorially:

Azerbaijani Defence Minister Safar Abiyev has completed his one-week
visit to the USA. He has had various meetings at the Pentagon,
National Security Council, US Congress and State Department. The
meetings discussed expanding cooperation in fighting terrorism and the
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Education of Azerbaijani
officers in the USA was another topic that was discussed.

Positive development

There can be no doubt that the defence minister’s visit to the USA is
in itself a positive development, at least for two reasons. First,
Abiyev’s visit had been put off for so long. Second, the visit
coincided with the period when Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was
making overtures to Russia. It is plain to see that Washington by no
means is prepared to let Azerbaijan leave its military and strategic
orbit. The nature of topics which were discussed in the USA shows that
apart from terrorism issues there is a conflict of interests in the
region with Russia in terms of security strategy.

Obviously, Washington intends to continue its policy of strengthening
its military positions in the South Caucasus, especially in Georgia
and Azerbaijan. This is also confirmed by reports in the Russian
media which – right after Abiyev left for the USA – said that the USA
would station its mobile military base in Azerbaijan, even though US
Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, regarded as the second
person in the US State Department, said at the last press conference
before his departure from Azerbaijan that America did not intend to
set up a mobile military base in Azerbaijan.

Visit heralds new stage in relations

Can Abiyev’s visit to the USA be described as a success? Are there any
aspects to it which remain secret?

Political analyst Rasim Musabayov believes that first of all the visit
heralds the beginning of a new stage of closer cooperation between the
USA and Azerbaijan. “It may be that America – as Armitage and other
officials have said – does not intend to station its troops in
Azerbaijan, but the agenda includes upgrading Azerbaijan’s
infrastructure to the level where it can be used by the USA, ensuring
air defence for that infrastructure and bringing the local personnel
into line with US standards.”

In Musabayov’s view, such cooperation is beneficial not only to the
USA, but Azerbaijan as well. “The USA will implement in Azerbaijan a
plan similar to what they did in Georgia under the Train and Equip
programme. We are to be interested in that.”

Russia cannot prevent it

“At any rate, Abiyev gives the impression of an advocate of closer
military cooperation with the West.” As for the reaction which such
contacts could spark in Russia, Musabayov said that the Kremlin would
naturally dislike this relationship and envy it. “However, Russia is
in no position to prevent this. How can it object to that? Moreover,
the USA will do this all within quotas.”

Speaking about military education of Azerbaijani servicemen in the
USA, Musabayov said: “It is known that the USA assists Azerbaijan in
securing its borders and exchanges information in this regard. In
addition, they help us in security issues in the Caspian Sea. In my
opinion, this assistance will continue. Although Armenia stated its
protest to Armitage in this regard, the reality is that while we may
receive more assistance in absolute terms, but when calculated per
capita, Armenia is ahead of Azerbaijan. This means that there are
opportunities to increase that assistance.”

Democracy and military ends

Finally, we should mention a subtle point. The Azerbaijani public and
the democratic camp are concerned that America may sacrifice its
interest in democracy in order to achieve military ends. Are there
serious grounds for such concern? Incidentally, Abiyev could be asked
the following question in Washington: is his ministry not concerned
about lawsuits that it filed against Yeni Musavat newspaper, colossal
damages that the court obliged the newspaper to pay, and the
newspaper’s plans to close down as a result?

Musabayov replied our question as follows: “From a tactical
standpoint, there can be grounds for such concern. US President George
Bush has said that Washington will not forget its strategic interest
in democracy and human rights. Yet, I believe that this will be done
in the form of recommendations, rather than open criticism. Washington
wants Azerbaijan to modernize and has not given up this
pursuit. However, it wants modernization to be accomplished by the
Azerbaijani government.”