Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomed the so-called peace efforts in the South Caucasus and called on the international community to consider these processes as an exemplary model. The President of Turkey announced this in his speech before the participants of the 152nd Assembly of the Inter-Parliamentary Union in Istanbul’s Dolmabahçe Palace.

Referring to the developments taking place in the South Caucasus, the head of Turkey said: “We welcome the steps towards building a peaceful future, establishing stability and prosperity in the South Caucasus and we hope that this process will be an example for the whole world.” Erdogan thanked the representatives of about 155 countries gathered in Istanbul. According to him, the Inter-Parliamentary Union has been playing a key role for 137 years and is making a significant contribution to the development of parliamentary democracy, guided by the slogan “Democracy for all”.

“I highly appreciate the mission of the Inter-Parliamentary Union, which is aimed at expanding opportunities for dialogue and cooperation, as well as promoting initiatives aimed at establishing peace and justice,” Erdogan emphasized. At the same time, he emphasized the crisis in the current system of international relations. “The international system, which was formed 80 years ago by the victorious states of the Second World War, today faces a serious problem of legitimacy. The values ​​and principles underlying this system are gradually losing their meaning and power.”

The President of Turkey expressed regret that the mandatory norms of international law are becoming ineffective, and new war crimes and crimes against humanity are increasing day by day in the world. “Where there is no common sense, dialogue mechanisms are paralyzed, and diplomacy and negotiations are replaced by weapons, no one can feel safe,” he added. The Turkish president noted that the main priority of Ankara’s foreign policy is the peaceful settlement of conflicts, regardless of their geography. “It is clear that no model of establishing peace and security can to be effective if the countries of the region do not act as the main actors in it,” Erdogan concluded.

His statements can be qualified as an open declaration of regional “ownership”. Welcoming the so-called stabilization processes in the South Caucasus, the Turkish president is trying to legitimize Ankara’s military role in the new regional security architecture. In essence, this is a declaration of regional hegemony, where Turkey assumes the monopoly of dictating the terms of peace and overseeing their implementation, while justifying Turkey’s military-political involvement and support for Azerbaijan during the 44-day war.

The key political thesis of this speech is the exclusion of extra-regional actors, with remarkable nuances. Asserting that any model cannot be viable without the main role of regional countries, Erdogan makes it clear that the future of the Caucasus must be built exclusively “locally”, with the consensus of the Turkey-Iran-Russia power triangle and local actors. This is a direct challenge to the European and international institutional formats, which Ankara is trying to push out of the regional agenda.

However, in this context, the role of the USA deserves special attention. Washington’s active mediation in the Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations is not a problem for Turkey, because the American agenda in the South Caucasus often coincides with Turkish geopolitical interests.

Ankara’s confidence stems from the fact that American mediation, aimed at weakening Russian and Iranian influence and unblocking communication channels, creates favorable conditions for Turkish expansion. And it turns out a situation where the foreign mediator actually serves the strengthening of the Turkish geopolitical axis, which causes a serious contradiction between Erdogan’s official rhetoric and real policy.

Erdogan’s claim about the “legitimacy crisis” of the international relations system serves as a justification for power politics. Declaring that the old world order formed after the Second World War has lost its validity, Erdogan is trying to legitimize the new status quo formed by the use of force. Presenting the Caucasian processes as a “world example”, he records the Turkish dominance as an established fact, presenting Ankara as the only alternative guarantor of security, against the “paralyzed” global mechanisms.

Thus, Erdogan’s rhetoric reaffirms the reality that the era of “total pragmatism” has come to replace the regulated era of international law in modern geopolitics. In the absence of clear and universal rules of the game, the states are guided exclusively by the maximum promotion of their own interests, using diplomatic statements as a veil to hide power realignments. In the end, the calls of the President of Turkey should be understood not as an invitation to cooperation, but as a record of the new geopolitical status-quo. The “peace model” of the South Caucasus, which Ankara so diligently promotes, actually reflects the essence of the modern world order, where peace is not the result of law, but the result of the use of force and the rigid calculation of interests.

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Today in the National Assembly, Nikol Pashinyan continued to present the report on the Government’s performance and implementation results for 2025 and, as in the previous 2 days, he announced today that the people should do so that the CP becomes the government again, otherwise something bad will happen.

He threatened again from the NA podium that the impoverishment process of national philanthropist Samvel Karapetyan and other businessmen with opposition views has started.

“If Samvel Karapetyan, Tsarukyan and Kocharyan enter the National Assembly, something bad will happen.” announced Nikol Pashinyan.

Political scientist Ara Poghosyan talking about Nikol Pashinyan’s statement in recent months that “if CP does not form power, there will be a war”, he noted that such statements are not subject to substantive discussion for one simple reason, because they are ordinary political statements.

“If we try to fit these statements into classical political science, then it fits perfectly into “sharp force”, which the government in Armenia today calls “hybrid war”. In other words, in the classical sense, this is a “sharp force” used against the people, the society, which with manipulative technologies and tricks, by distorting reality, they try to instill fear in people, which should bring electoral dividends. of 168.am Ara Poghosyan said in a conversation with

The political scientist also stressed that these statements should not be the subject of substantive discussion for another reason: in reality, there is no objective measurable tool, because the government is trying to impose a certain construct on other forces.

For example, if the other forces do not accept the “brooch” prepared by Nikol Pashinyan, which, according to him, is the map of Armenia, then those forces have territorial demands from Azerbaijan, and if they have territorial demands, it implies a war.

“This is an attempt, as I have already mentioned, to apply “sharp force” to one’s own society by distorting logic. In general, there are few such regimes, this is typical of totalitarian and authoritarian regimes, which use this power against their own society. Usually, this is typical of the use of force by external forces against any state, while in our case we are witnessing the use of “sharp force” by our own government, against our own society,” added our interlocutor.

The political scientist stressed that the Armenian society is not one-layered, and it is necessary to understand that this statement can have an impact on which layer in the elections. Each layer of society has its own expectations and ideas from these elections.

“Different social groups that have different problems, groups that are used to being in a comfortable zone, this speech cannot have an impact on that layer. Many things depend on different political forces, think tanks, how they will interpret.

If we take these statements as a political statement, the purpose of which is to instill fear in our own people, and we are able to explain this to people, then it will have a different effect,” stressed Ara Poghosyan.

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“We will force them to retreat,” was the answer 168.amto the question that the government is not retreating, said the leader of the “Strong Armenia” party, political hostage Samvel Karapetyan, whose house arrest regime was extended for 3 months by the judge of the Anti-Corruption Court, Vahe Dolmazyan.

Samvel Karapetyan noted that only the Armenian society can change this reality with its activity and persistence.

To the question: if it were not for the famous statement, would he have submitted an application to enter politics, Karapetyan answered, of course not.

To the observation that Pashinyan says that he is directed by Russia, Samvel Karapetyan replied: “Russia is directing only Pashinyan, only the Armenian people are directing me.”

He also advised not to pay attention to the statements of frivolous people, referring to Nikol Pashinyan.

Details in the video.

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If the opposition does not consolidate, the ruling CP is invincible. This is the only way to “eat” CP in the elections. Expressed this opinion 168TVof Revue on the air of the program Armine Adibekyan, expert on Azerbaijan issues, sociologistspeaking about the possible results of the parliamentary elections to be held in Armenia and the data of sociological surveys.

«I hope that the opposition will consolidate, otherwise the “Civil Pact” party is invincible, that is, the only guarantee to “digest” and “eat” the CP is that all opposition forces will consolidate at least on the issue of not digging “under each other’s grass” and entering the parliament, they will act on the principle of one force. It is the only option. no other options existArmine Adibekyan mentioned.

According to him, the number 1 guarantee for the victory of the opposition in the RA National Assembly elections scheduled for June 7 is that more than 50 percent of citizens with the right to vote participate in the elections.

“The more people participate in the elections, the less likely it is that Nikol Pashinyan will collect his 51 percent legally,” Adibekyan emphasizes.

Speaking about the open support of the current government of Armenia by foreign forces, the sociologist also predicts. “If Pashinyan suddenly felt that he did not win the elections, naturally, he will organize clashes, because he will not tolerate the non-reproduction of his power. I repeat, here we are not talking about TRIPP, not about peace, not about the future of Armenia and “hearts”, but about his personal safety and existence, and Pashinyan is very well aware of that. I mean civil conflicts inside the country. So we should be ready to defend each of our votes»։

The sociologist agrees with the question that if the KP led by Nikol Pashinyan does not get a constitutional majority as a result of the June 7 National Assembly elections, as he expressed his desire not long ago and, in fact, demanded Nikol Pashinyan from the public, otherwise threatening with a “disastrous war”, then by his own standards it can be considered that Nikol Pashinyan has lost the elections.

According to Armine Adibekyan, it really does not matter for Turkey and Azerbaijan who will be elected and who will come to power in Armenia, because Ankara and Baku believe that they have already secured the “buffer configuration” that is not subject to change, therefore Nikol Pashinyan’s stay in power is desirable for Turkey and Azerbaijan, but not mandatory.

According to Adibekyan, when NA Speaker Alen Simonyan declares that “Azerbaijan is the guarantor of Armenia’s security”, he means that Azerbaijan is personally the guarantor of their security and that of the CP.

“Alen Simonyan tried to involve Turkey in this process, that: ‘at least you protect us, at least you guarantee that we will be in power.’ This is the general idea,” the expert believes.

Speaking about the meetings between the representatives of the political societies of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Armine Adibekyan says, “it is a very old story”. similar mutual visits took place years ago, which did not bring any results, because if people want peace, they establish peace under any circumstances, and Azerbaijan was just preparing the ground to touch the weak points of the Armenian society and see through whom it can attack Armenia. And when talking about “pro-Westerners” and “pro-Europeans” and, on the other hand, people working with Western and European funds, Armine Adibekyan emphasizes that these are different concepts, and also adds that Europe does not need Armenia.

Let’s remind that Nikol Pashinyan announced during a briefing with journalists about a month ago that the peace revision forces are preparing a “new September war”. Later, on another occasion, he said that “the forces led by Robert Kocharyan, Samvel Karapetyan, Gagik Tsarukyan adopted a policy of revising the peace established between Armenia and Azerbaijan, opening the door for war.” On March 22, Nikol Pashinyan, while summing up the intra-party campaign day in Yerevan, said in a conversation with the party members. “There will be a war in September, and a catastrophic war at that, if the “Civil Agreement” party, I’m not saying wins the elections, does not get a constitutional majority.”

Full interview in the video.

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On April 17, during the discussion of the performance of the RA government’s plan for 2025 in the National Assembly, in his speech, the former Minister of Defense of the Republic of Armenia, the head of the “Armenia” faction, Seyran Ohanyan, referred to the 44-day war of 2020, the responsibility of the political leadership in its initiation and defeat.

In particular, according to him, the inadequate management of Nikol Pashinyan’s power, conflicting political statements, actions that damaged the existing negotiation process, led to the 44-day war of 2020.

“Of course, the main culprit is Azerbaijan who started the military operations, but during the war you did nothing to mobilize the country, achieve success and fulfill the task before us, we were able to fulfill that task,” Seyran Ohanyan said.

The fact that the authorities failed the mobilization plan during the 44-day war, we have argued more than once.

And the colonel-general did not avoid Nikol Pashinyan’s accusations addressed to the generals from the NA podium.

“Mr. Pashinyan says that the generals ran away. The leadership of the National Assembly and the deputies came to the place where there was a need for reservists who had left the field of combat for one reason or another. Meanwhile, the deputies did not hesitate to go, at least for a few hours, to work with the “mob resource” (reservists. – ed.). Who ran away now? did the generals run away or the parliamentarians who were there? And I know some of them,” insisted the former Minister of Defense.

Seyran Ohanyan, of course, does not say who those deputies were, and what phase of the war it was said, but we can recall a few episodes here.

First of all, let’s mention: 168.amis an analysis submitted that the militia law was adopted at the end of the 44-day period, and before its adoption after Nikol Pashinyan’s Facebook call, to say the least, frivolous, led by governors and community heads volunteer squads were formed, we repeat, the laws related to the creation of the militia had not yet been adopted at that time, and there were no corresponding deputy governors.

Can we report any legal or legal issues here? And to what extent this issue became a subject of discussion in the NA investigative committee studying the circumstances of the 44-day war, is not known. Moreover, no one knows whether this and investigative and where were the volunteer squads of law enforcement agencies deployed during the war, what combat operations did they participate in?

Recently, for example, we asked the RA Investigative Committee, among a number of other questions, where their volunteer detachment was during the 44-day period, to which sector it was sent, but they avoided this topic. And nothing that in 2020 RA Investigative Committee during the war message spread that “following the call of the RA Prime Minister, 180 volunteers were enlisted to participate in the sacred work of protecting the motherland.”

“Four platoons were formed, 2 of which, on October 28, headed by the chairman of the RA Investigative Committee, went on combat duty through the RA Armed Forces General Staff,” the Central Committee detailed.

By the way, these days we are exclusive documents հրապարակել՝ Evidence of desertion and desertion among police and prison officers during the 44-day war. And the number of deserters and those who have left their positions reaches several hundreds.

We still do not mention the political-propaganda military units and squads formed in those days, if we can say so.

Secondly, we presented separate studies today to the Minister of Defense Suren Papikyan, Mayor of Yerevan Tigran Avinyan, worked as director of National Security Service in a certain part of the war Argishti Kyaramyan and others’ role-playing.

Here it is necessary to remember the well-known counterattack operation, which was discussed in Artsakh were present Nikol Pashinyan, Former president of Artsakh Araik Harutyunyan, Jalal Harutyunyan, Argishti Kyaramyanas the director of the RA NSS, in the capacity of the director of the Artsakh NSS: Kamo Aghajanyan, as the RA NA President: Ararat Mirzoyan, in the capacity of Secretary of the Council of Artsakh: Samvel Babayan, then government deputy Hakob Simidyan and others.

It is a different matter that the former commander of the National Security Service Jalal Harutyunyan was accused of the failure of this operation, then he was acquitted, and it is nothing that after the failure of this operation, Argishti Kyaramyan was dismissed from the post of National Security Service Director on October 8, 2020.

Third, 168.amthe wrote that on the 4th day of the war, Tigran Avinyan approved a plan to install photovoltaic plants in Shushi, and days before the fall of Shushi, on November 5, the President of Artsakh, Araik Harutyunyan, on his Facebook page had reported that is in Shushi, and Tigran Avinyan was also seen in the published photos.

It’s no secret that after being released from the position of National Security Service director, during the 44-day war, Argishti Kyaramyan continued to stay in Artsakh, was in Shushi, and from there, like never before said Former RA Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan, 2020 At 5:30 AM on November 5-6, he left the city of Shushi and was stationed a little below the city of Shushi, and Argishti Karamyan was also in the same car.

Moreover, on November 7, the former Minister of Defense arrived in Yerevan in the same car with Argishti Karamyan to discuss some issues related to armaments. They will know what developments happened after that. And Seyran Ohanyan in Shushi during the war had met also at that time to the Governor of Ararat Garik Sargsyan. And the fact that Seyran Ohanyan announced today from the podium of the National Assembly that the government deputies ran away, maybe he knows something.

On the other hand, in the context of the 44-day war, the government has from time to time made various accusations against him and his son, the commander of the Tsori military unit, Artur Ohanyan, the last one today. passes In the Lele Tepe case, and quite remarkably during the court hearings announcements has done that high-ranking military personnel are not held accountable for the failure of the counterattack.

And the former Minister of Defense in his speech during the discussion of the implementation of the RA government’s plan for 2025 in the National Assembly once again emphasized that during the 44-day war, the Artsakh Defense Army had a 283 km defense zone, of which “they kept 265 km for one month, until October 27, 2020”.

“The generals you mentioned fled through that area, and I believe that it is within your responsibility, because the Chief of the General Staff of the RA Armed Forces makes a decision there, and you approve it. Through your zone of responsibility, Azerbaijan has bypassed and reached the borders of Shushi, Berdzor, Berdadzor and the Republic of Armenia – the borders of Goris, Kapan, Meghri. Now you say that the generals escaped, they escaped under your leadership, go and make a decision,” Seyran Ohanyan addressed Nikol Pashinyan in the parliament.

Below this statement by the Defense Minister are some footnotes. For example, the fact that the 1st Army Corps of the RA Armed Forces is called to protect the rear of the 9th Army. On one occasion during the war, Artsrun Hovhannisyan, trying to protect Jalal Harutyunyan, in an interview had said. 

“The 9th PS of the Armed Forces was completely removed from its subordination, a completely different command was created, and a different person was in charge. In other words, the 9th Infantry Division and the 1st Corps of the RA Armed Forces formed a joint southern direction, the commander of which was Lieutenant General Tiran Khachatryan. In other words, no matter how many fronts of active combat operations Jalal Harutyunyan conducted, if we add up all the kilometers, Jalal Harutyunyan, as the commander of the Defense Forces, conducted a maximum of one defensive district front battle. All accusations are populist and baseless.”

Can we say that in the case of such statements, the arrow is pointed directly at the leadership of the RA Armed Forces during the war, although there are also clear facts that in 2020 On September 27, he did not pass the defense of the 9th PS of the Defense Ministry.

On the other hand, they are not out of line with the fact that Nikol Pashinyan, as the supreme commander, is responsible for what happened, that Onik Gasparyan, who was the head of the General Staff, was subjected to him. Another question is: how legal was it, since it was announced in RA? martial law.

But if we talk about the responsibility of the units of the RA Armed Forces, then we should not forget that the 2nd Army Corps of the RA Armed Forces, which was handed over to Azerbaijan by the November 9 document, has a big contribution to keeping Karvachar. But this does not prevent Pashinyan from putting all the responsibility for the defeat of 2020 on the army. And that is why today Seyran Ohanyan demanded from Pashinyan to publish the 44-day report.

“Why don’t you publish the report of the 44-day war? The people demand it, the relatives of the missing also demand it. Because you put the main emphasis on the army, I asked the Chairman of the Investigative Committee under your authority and the General Prosecutor: please tell me how many of the initiated criminal cases refer to the army and how many to other institutions. But they avoided… Because the war is not conducted by the army, which you did not support, but by the state. Now you ask them a question: is the army alone responsible for this, or are the others responsible?

Later, Pashinyan answered Seyran Ohanyan’s last demand from the NA podium.

“Now, the report of the investigative commission has arrived… let’s say, isn’t it clear to you that it will also be published in some way,” he said, without referring to the other episode questions related to the 44-day war before that.

So, it is not excluded that Pashinyan will make some parts of the report public at a politically advantageous moment. At the moment, the political interests demand to display the new weapons acquired after 2022, and the authorities do not even hide that this will be done on May 28 in the Republic Square only to get votes and not to let the opposition forces into the parliament. In other words, the army has become a political tool, and at best a backup security player and nothing more.

As for whether the military leadership during the 44-day war will join Seyran Ohanyan’s demand that the report of the 44-day war be published in its entirety, one can speculate. Although Onik Gasparyan and Davit Tonoyan should also demand that the full transcripts of the SC sessions of September 30 and October 19, 2020 be made public, in the end, the authorities declassified some parts of the session of September 30 that were taken out of context. Will they demand, in the end, here, first of all, it is a question of their and the army’s reputation, and not to answer later for what they are not responsible for?

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Edgar Ghazaryan and Davit Sargsyan of the “Erku front” podcast in the next edition, they discuss the regular meeting of Armenian and Azerbaijani so-called “civil societies”, Baku’s new ultimatums to Armenia, the hopeless hostage-taking of Artsakh’s military and political leaders, and also the obsession of threatening their own people with a new war.

Details in the video

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“Under the conditions of today’s system, we will never have a sense of fairness and justice, because the judicial and justice systems in RA generally have no organic connection with the highest source of power, the people. The issue should be resolved by adopting a new Constitution in the near future”, the other day announced Nikol Pashinyan inventing another artificial justification for changing the Constitution.

He once again spoke at length about the fact that the current RA Constitution does not express the will of the people and “does not have an organic connection with the highest source of power”.

“In this case, do whatever you want, there will be no sense of fairness and justice, because the Constitution should be an expression of the free will of the people, and we must admit that we do not have such a Constitution and, unfortunately, we never had it,” he said.

Let’s assume that Nikol Pashinyan is not manipulating because of habit and inability to disobey Azerbaijan’s demand, but he is correct in saying that the Constitution has no organic connection with the people. In other words, according to his logic and his favorite vocabulary, it has something to do with criminal oligarchy, robbery, forgery. In that case, it turns out that the revolution that brought tragedies to itself, the government, Armenia and the Armenian people, is not “velvet, non-violent, popular”, as has been heard for 8 years, but criminal-oligarchic, looting and falsified.

After 2018, he has been bragging to the world that he came to power only and exclusively through the constitutional way, that his seizure of power is more constitutional than the idea of ​​the constitution itself. Now it turns out that for 8 years he has been in power in Armenia with a Constitution that has no organic connection with the people. Maybe that is also why he established an organic connection with the first Azerbaijani demand and the first Azerbaijani interest, naming it “Peace”.

The reality is that all RA Constitutions, including the current one, with many problems, ensured the normal and safe life of the people in the homeland that is several thousand square kilometers larger than today. It was an unspoken but highly organic connection – the source of power – between the people and the Constitution. Nikol Pashinyan, however, has turned the source of power into a fountain, a fountain, in memory of the former Armenia and perpetuating his own power. Inorganic, like his own walking statue in his own birthplace.

In the upcoming elections, the people who are the source of power in a broad sense have one thing to do: either confirm the consolidation of their own country, its past and future with the date of 2018-2026, or form a new government in a way that seems impossible at the moment, with the prospect of stopping the shame of the government that brought Armenia to this state.

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168TVof “Trigger” the guest of the program military analyst Davit Jamalyan is:

Key issues of the regional and international agenda were discussed during the program. Reference was made to the possible consequences of the US and Israel’s confrontation with Iran, as well as its impact on the South Caucasus.

Special attention was paid to the meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, its political impulses and Azerbaijan’s response.

The expert also analyzed:

• The upcoming elections in Armenia
• The current state of Armenian-Russian relations,
• Possible scenarios of development of the situation in the region.

At the end of the discussion, the prospects and challenges facing Armenia in the changing geopolitical situation were touched upon.

Hayk Derzyan

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