Large-scale geopolitical shifts and the war in Iran call into question the implementation of key infrastructure initiatives in the South Caucasus. The center of attention is the Armenian-American TRIPP logistics project, the prospects of which may change significantly against the background of the potential conflict in Iran and the hardening of the positions of Moscow and Tehran. Under these conditions, is it possible to redirect transit flows to the north of Armenia along the Ijevan-Gazakh route, and how do other regional players look at such prospects?

VERELQ talked with a political scientist, senior researcher of the APRI Armenia Post-Soviet Center about these complex logistics nodes, US strategic interests and the future of the region’s transportation de-blocking process. Benjamin Poghosyan with

 

Benyamin Poghosyan is in the photo, the source is Sputnik

VERELQ. Will the war in Iran be able to paralyze the Armenian-American TRIPP logistics project (mainly with American participation and investment) in southern Armenia, given its proximity to the Iranian border?

Benjamin Poghosyan. I believe that the war in Iran poses significant risks to the implementation of the TRIPP project. As far as can be judged, the outcome of the conflict will only strengthen the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the strategic decision-making process in Iran. We know that, since August 2025, the IRPC has shown a very negative attitude towards the TRIPP project, while, for example, the presidential administration has taken a more or less neutral position. It can be predicted with confidence that Iran’s attitude towards the project will only harden, and it will become a serious problem for its implementation.

In addition, we see Russia changing its neutral-positive rating from just after August 2025 to a more negative one. As Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk announced on April 2, 2026, the Washington Declaration of 2025 violated the two-century balance of power in the South Caucasus. Most likely, we will now face a situation where both Iran and Russia will take a tougher stance on the TRIPP project. Yes, it does create serious obstacles and risks.

VERELQ. With Iran openly attacking US facilities in the Persian Gulf, will this force Washington to freeze the Armenian project due to security risks?

Benjamin Poghosyan. It is now difficult to assess possible US actions. It is clear that even an interim peace agreement between the US and Iran will not resolve all the fundamental differences between them, and above all between Israel and Iran. It means that any peace treaty signing will be only a big pause before the next war.

As I already mentioned, Iran will adopt a tougher stance towards TRIPP. Finally, Tehran may start putting pressure not on the US, but on the Armenian government, announcing the inadmissibility of the project. If the implementation continues, Iran may take various actions against it. Whether or not that will stop the Americans is hard to say, but it does, again, pose significant risks to the project. In addition, Russia will also come out tougher against it. So the situation around TRIPP remains rather unclear.

VERELQ. If the southern corridor loses its relevance due to its dangerous proximity to the theater of hostilities in Iran, will the northern Ijevan-Gazakh route become a major transport project in the process of unblocking communications with Azerbaijan?

Benjamin Poghosyan. I practically exclude that Azerbaijan will agree to this. First of all, we need to understand. Baku’s main goal is to get a “corridor” to Nakhichevan and then to Turkey. Unblocking other transport routes (including sections of the Armenian-Azerbaijani, Armenian-Nakhjevan and Armenian-Turkish borders) is not part of Azerbaijan’s plans. Even if the TRIPP project is implemented, I am not sure that Azerbaijan will open the border between Armenia and Nakhichevan for direct rail communication with Iran, or that Turkey will completely block the borders, giving Armenia rail access to its Black Sea and Mediterranean ports. That is, even after a successful project launch, I am not sure that all other communications will be opened.

The main goal of Azerbaijan and Turkey is to create the shortest route from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan and Turkey with a length of only 43 kilometers. It should become an alternative to the current route through Georgia and the potential route through Iran (meaning the Araksian Corridor). This is what is fundamental for Azerbaijan. I completely exclude the scenario in which Azerbaijan, not getting a road to Nakhichevan via Syunik, will agree to open other parts of the border, including the Kazakh-Ijevan rail connection, just to allow Armenia to connect its territory to Russia or the Caspian Sea by rail.

VERELQ. Is it worthwhile to redirect transit flows to Yerevan from the unstable south to the north, given that the Ijevan-Gazakh route would potentially integrate the central and northern regions of the country into international trade more quickly?

Benjamin Poghosyan. From Armenia’s point of view, the opening of the Kazakh-Ijevan railway corridor is certainly a more acceptable option. This route does not pass through the south of the country and has nothing to do with the so-called “Zangezur Corridor”. It is clear that it is beneficial to Yerevan. Russian products will be able to reach Ijevan directly by rail through the territory of Azerbaijan. Large logistics centers can be built there for further distribution of goods by road transport. A similar scheme is also applicable in the opposite direction. cargo delivery by car to Ijevan, and from there by rail to Russia.

It is quite obvious that this is beneficial for Yerevan, because it removes the issue of Syunik. There are risks that Azerbaijan could use the TRIPP project to increase its economic presence in the Syunik region with the long-term intention of taking it under de facto control, according to statements by Azerbaijani officials and experts. With the opening of the Kazakh-Ijevan railway, these risks are completely neutralized.

VERELQ. If the implementation of TRIPP stops in the South, will American capital try to shift its political and financial support to the Northern transport projects in order to maintain the status of the main moderator in the South Caucasus?

Benjamin Poghosyan. Frankly, I doubt that the Americans will be interested in the opening of the Kazakh-Ijevan railway branch. In that case, Ijevan will become a terminus, and this route will exclusively serve the interests of Armenia, an opportunity to import goods by rail, not only through Georgia.

If we consider the theoretical possibility of connecting Ijevan with the Meghradzor-Hrazdan route, and then with Yerevan, Yeraskh and Nakhichevan, the Americans could agree that this would form a corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan. However, the section from Ijevan to Meghradzor is distinguished by extremely difficult terrain. Compared to the construction of 43 kilometers with Meghri, much larger investments will be required there. If the southern railway can be built in one and a half to two years, connecting Ijevan to Meghradzor, Hrazdan and Yerevan will require huge capital investments and three to five years of work. Will American investors be interested in that is the big question.

But, as I already emphasized, Azerbaijanis are not interested in this at all. They need direct access to Nakhichevan and Turkey exclusively through Syunik. Neither Azerbaijan nor, as far as I understand, Turkey is interested in any other option. Therefore, I do not see forces that will be able to force Baku to agree to the opening of the Kazakh-Ijevan road, to abandon the “Zangezur Corridor” project and to wait 5-6 years to enter Nakhichevan through the north of Armenia.

We must understand that both the paragraph 9 of the trilateral declaration of November 2020 on the opening of communications and the Washington declaration of August 2025 are considered by Azerbaijan as documents for the implementation of the so-called “Zangezur Corridor” project, albeit in a modified form. The main and only goal for Baku and Ankara is to connect Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan and Turkey through Syunik. Therefore, it is completely unclear to me who and how can force Azerbaijan to agree to the northern railway branch.

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Against the backdrop of the reduction of import volumes from Iran and the sharp increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizers, the Armenian government has decided to financially support agricultural farms. For 2026, the state will allocate around 900 million drams in order to ensure the profitability of agricultural works.

The relevant decision was adopted at the April 18 meeting of the executive. According to the justification of the government, if the price of nitrogen fertilizer fluctuated between 6,500 and 8,000 drams during the season, it increased by another 3,000 drams in the first ten days of April. The relevant authorities note that in the conditions of such inflation, doing agriculture becomes unproductive. The analyzes of the ministry showed that 21 thousand tons of nitrogen fertilizers are required for the current year. 5,000-6,000 tons of it have already been acquired, and now there is a need to ensure access to the remaining 15,000 tons.

Beneficiaries whose cultivated land area does not exceed 30 hectares will be able to use the state support program. The subsidy mechanism will operate according to the following principle. the state will compensate the difference between the market price of one 50-kilogram bag and 8,000 AMD, but the compensation provided for each bag cannot exceed 3,000 AMD.

The draft also clarifies that the villagers must make purchases exclusively from the suppliers included in the list published by the Ministry. At the same time, all the responsibility for the quality of the sold fertilizer will be borne by the supplier companies

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The Government of Armenia has approved the conclusion of agreements worth about 284.4 million dollars with the World Bank, the purpose of which is to provide long-term housing solutions for about 109 thousand people displaced from Nagorno Karabakh and to promote the development of the country’s mortgage market.

This decision adopted at the April 18 session specifies the sources of funding. The bulk of the package, $240 million, will be raised as a loan facility, and $24.4 million will be provided from the Global Concessional Financing Facility (GCFF) in the form of a grant.

The program will also be supplemented by a 10 million dollar grant from the “Viable Planet” Foundation, and another 10 million dollar loan, guaranteed by the government, will be directed directly to the National Mortgage Company.

The support program will work in several directions. It is planned to provide direct financial assistance to refugees for the repayment of rent and utility costs, as well as to subsidize the mortgage loan advance payments and monthly contributions of the beneficiaries of the state program.

One important component is to open a credit line for financial organizations for the purpose of refinancing mortgage loans. The program also includes digital and institutional capacity building.

Implementation of the project is entrusted to the RA Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs. According to the justification of the government, the project is a logical continuation and expansion of the state support program launched in May 2024.

According to official data, 4,735 families have received housing certificates, of which 2,113 have already managed to buy an apartment, receiving more than 4.2 billion drams from the state budget. After the entry into force of the international agreement, funding will be allocated in stages, according to the established indicators and results.

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The implementation of the universal income declaration system is often unfairly discredited, but the main goal of this reform is to precisely target needy citizens and provide them with state support.

This was announced by the RA Prime Minister at the government session on April 18 Nikol Pashinyan. According to the head of the executive, the system is being demonized among the public, while it is necessary to clearly explain to the people that the new mechanism is meant to identify the vulnerable classes and direct the assistance to the right recipients.

As an example of social injustice, the Prime Minister recalled the previously recorded cases when state benefits were used by people driving expensive cars, in particular, “Mercedes G-Class”.

Nikol Pashinyan emphasized that the problem is not that someone just received an allowance, but that due to such illogical distribution, the state was deprived of the opportunity to provide more and quality services to citizens in extreme need.

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The Government of Armenia intends to use non-standard political and legislative mechanisms in order to finally settle the long-standing problem of legalization of houses in Yerevan’s Haghtanak (4th village) district. Moreover, the dismantling of houses inhabited for decades is definitely excluded.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced this during the government session held on April 18. According to the head of the executive, the regular administrative orders aimed at solving the problem are always facing legal obstacles, which the state system’s links are unable to overcome on their own.

In the created situation, the citizens, actually owning their property, are deprived of the opportunity to manage it legally, sell it or inherit it.

The Prime Minister emphasized that the issue requires high-level intervention and, if necessary, appropriate legislative changes. It was proposed to create a special working group for the effective settlement of similar long-term and crisis problems.

It should be reminded that the residents of the mentioned district have held protests many times in the past, demanding to settle the issue of their property rights, but the problem has remained unsolvable until now.

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The Government of Armenia optimizes the mechanism of calculation and provision of bonuses for special purpose units of the Armed Forces and servicemen on combat duty. For this purpose, during 2026, the budget of the defense department will increase by around 3.5 billion drams.

According to the decision adopted at the government session on April 18, the coefficients of the premiums for service providers in the new contact line formed after the military operations of 2020 will be revised. In addition, two different supplements for special forces will be combined.

Previously, the conditions and amounts of their calculation differed, which complicated the administration. With this step of the executive, the entire process of recording, documenting and allocating financial funds will be significantly facilitated.

According to the justification of the decision, the policy adopted by the state is aimed at expanding the social guarantees of the military, where financial security is considered as the main incentive for conscientious performance of official duties. The new system is expected to increase the attractiveness of the service, especially in the special purpose, special operations and intelligence units.

The settlement references provided by the document have a confidentiality stamp and are not subject to publication.

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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan positively assessed the resolution of the situation in the Middle East and in particular around the Strait of Hormuz, instructing the Competition Protection Authority to monitor the proportional decrease of prices in the domestic market.

At the government meeting on April 18, the head of the executive emphasized the need for accurate monitoring of the market. According to him, as soon as crises appear, the prices of goods immediately increase, but after the stabilization of the situation, businessmen reluctantly return them to the previous level.

In this context, the Prime Minister addressed the Chairman of the Commission for Protection of Competition Gegham Gevorgyaninstructing to analyze the situation and achieve price reduction where there are already objective prerequisites for it.

In the middle of April, against the background of the temporary ceasefire established in the region, the Iranian authorities announced the complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial ships. Restoring safe navigation through this strategically important waterway, which provides a significant portion of the world’s energy exports, contributes to the stabilization of global supply chains and international economic markets.

At the same time, the United States continues its blockade (which began on the evening of April 13) against ships carrying Iranian cargo, as well as ships entering Iranian territorial waters.

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