“Hraparak” newspaper writes:

“Nikol Pashinyan continues his campaign against the Armenian Apostolic Church and its ministers. It just does it more quietly during the pre-election period.

We wrote that by the order of the Head of the Prison Service, the clergy serving the prisons, in particular Father Grigor Hovhannisyan, was banned from entering the prison, he visited the life convicts for more than 10 years.

The clerics attached to the CSIs have been serving for many years for free, they were chosen by the decision of the Catholicos, there is a department serving the CSIs in the Mother See. Nikol Pashinyan decided to take the matter from the hands of the church, depriving the Catholicos of another lever.

They told that a few weeks ago, the CCP contacted the active clergy, they offered to sign contracts with them, and on a paid basis, trying to interest them in joining the ranks of the Tiradavs, but they did not agree. After that, they started to sign contracts with the clergy of the dioceses of the Tiradavs who sided with Pashinyan. We will find out how much they will be paid in the near future.

It should be noted that now the spiritual inspector of the prisons, the vicar of Gegharkunyats diocese, Fr. Reverend Isahak Poghosyan was the first to reject the government’s deal. According to everything, soon they will find a replacement for him.

It should be reminded that by the order of Suren Papikyan, the activities of the Armed Forces chaplains in the Ministry of Defense system were stopped from February 1. And on March 27, Pashinyan included Arman Saroyan, the former leader of the Masyatsotn Diocese, in the Committee on Forgiveness.”

More details in today’s issue of the newspaper

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Ahead of the parliamentary elections, the European Union decided to deploy a special mission to counter hybrid threats and foreign interference in Armenia with a two-year mandate. The initiative, which is actively supported by the head of European diplomacy Kaya Callas announced as a measure aimed at strengthening the country’s democratic stability. However, this step is definitely not accepted in the political circles of Armenia. There are fears that the strengthening of the European presence could turn the country into a theater of geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West, and the fight against disinformation risks turning into a “Moldovan scenario” of opposition pressure. VERELQA political scientist discussed the goals of the new EU mission and its impact on the internal political situation of Armenia Hrant Mikayelyan with.

Photo: Hrant Mikayelyan, source: shantnews.am

VERELQ. European diplomats (in particular Kaya Kallas) openly call Russia the main source of hybrid threats in the region, while official Yerevan emphatically avoids such formulations. How do you rate this difference in public interpretation of mission objectives? is it merely a diplomatic [difference]?

Hrant Mikayelyan. The point is that Brussels, not Armenia, decides the parameters of the mission. And Brussels has defined Russia as its military-political opponent. What’s more, over the past month we’ve seen signs that it’s working in the opposite direction as well. If in the past Russia’s approach was that NATO membership is a hostile act for post-Soviet countries, particularly Ukraine, and EU membership is acceptable, then recently, that parameter is changing.

Basically, the European Union and Russia are getting deeper and deeper into conflict. And the fact that Russia is called the source of hybrid threats is the modern political vocabulary of Brussels, which simply shows the direction and hostility of the relationship. The difference in these estimates stems from the difference in goals. In this context, Yerevan does not have concrete goals towards Russia, but Brussels does.

VERELQ. There are fears in the opposition circles that the expansion of the European presence may turn Armenia into a platform for a “proxy war” between Russia and the West. How do you assess the probability that the deployment of the EU mission will turn Armenia into a platform for geopolitical confrontation between Moscow and the West?

Hrant Mikayelyan. As for the fears that Armenia could become a platform of “proxy war”. a proxy war implies the presence of combat operations. It is difficult to imagine military operations between Russia and the West directly on the territory of Armenia, but the fact that the country is becoming a platform for geopolitical confrontation is already obvious.

The leadership of Armenia announced that Russia is a source of threats. Over the past month, several similar announcements and harsh retaliatory measures have also followed from Russia. We also saw the tense debate during the meeting between Nikol Pashinyan and Vladimir Putin two weeks ago. We see the illusion of joining the European Union in the leadership of Armenia. I call it an illusion because in the next few decades it is completely unrealistic. However, this very illusion is already creating tension, and the European Union views Armenia as active in the confrontation with Russia.

At the beginning of 2024, Emmanuel Macron announced that Armenia is a buffer state in this confrontation. Accordingly, there is nothing unexpected here, conflict will only grow. How it can happen is another question. For all external players, Azerbaijan can act as a tool to force Armenia to support their policies. Both the West and Russia can use Azerbaijan in that capacity, and both sides have already done so.

VERELQ. Some critics of the authorities cite the recent experience of Moldova, expressing concern that restrictive measures may be applied to opposition media under the pretext of protecting against disinformation. How justified are these fears?

Hrant Mikayelyan. Not only the critics of the authorities, but also the representatives of the authorities themselves, as well as the representatives of the European Union, talk about the “Moldovan scenario”. On the one hand, we have not seen a direct closure of the media, but we have noticed the exclusion of media positions from the multiplex (i.e., open broadcasting), the narrowing of the broadcasting zone, limiting it only to the borders of Yerevan, as well as the arrest of bloggers with the prohibition of engaging in broadcasting activities. First of all, we are talking about the “Antifake” resource, and with a rather dubious case.

However, the restrictions refer not to the media field, but to political life. We see active pressure on the “Strong Armenia” party, which is expressed by the arrests of activists and representatives of the political force, including the head of the party himself, who is currently under house arrest. Therefore, Moldova’s experience for Armenia lies more in this dimension, as well as in the possibility that some opposition forces may not be allowed to participate in the elections. We are seeing the rhetoric intensify as the vote approaches.

A political and advisory European mission was also stationed in Moldova. The authorities in Armenia also appealed to the European Union to send such a mission, and it is working here. What are the results of his work? Last week we saw the adoption of a number of new restrictions on the media and politicians. I attribute this to the performance of the mission itself.

VERELQ. The mission’s mandate is directly related to the protection of democratic institutions in the run-up to the June elections. According to your forecasts, how will the presence and work of European specialists affect the level of public confidence in the voting results and their recognition by the defeated parties?

Hrant Mikayelyan. Regarding the mandate of the mission, I should mention the following. We have already seen in the rhetoric of the representatives of the European Union that the preservation of democracy in Armenia is connected with the preservation of the current government. This rhetoric is supported by both the current government and the representatives of the EU delegation in Armenia, who express similar ideas. It turns out a unique logic. democracy is specifically the rule of “democrats”. And by what means it will be preserved is a secondary question, and there are serious questions related to it.

As for how the society and the defeated parties will react. everything depends on how the electoral process itself will be, whether it will be honest and competitive. A huge number of questions arise here. Will everyone be allowed to participate in the elections? How equal will access to mass media be? How strongly will the administrative resource be used?

These elections are crucial for the future of Armenia, a lot is at stake. We are witnessing the unprecedented involvement of the European Union in the internal political processes of the country, no one has ever participated in them to such an extent. This, of course, can affect the situation, and also in a negative direction. But the main thing is how the process itself will be evaluated as a result. The 2021 elections were also fateful, but the opposition accepted defeat also because the authorities then won by a sufficient margin, and it was clear that the irregularities, if any, had no effect on the final result. The issue of recognition of the upcoming elections and their legitimacy will depend on how the process will go this time.

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“Hraparak” got hold of a document related to the RA-EU summit to be held in Yerevan on May 4-5. The document opens a number of brackets and shows the real picture of Armenia-EU relations. What desperate measures the RA authorities are trying to woo the EU with, and how they obediently fulfill the most incomprehensible proposals and instructions, and what kind of humble service the EU expects from Armenia.

The document talks about how the summit convened at the beginning of May should proceed, and what the Armenian side should say and do, how it should behave, what issues it should resolve. Simply put, this is a guide for the “sovereign” leadership of RA, what Europe expects from it. It is true that it is mostly done in the form of consultation, but the existence of such a document itself speaks of the unequal relations, the master-slave dependence that exists between the EU and RA authorities. It is clear from the document how much the European Union attaches importance to two issues: the issue of the railway, taking it away from the hands of the Russian company at any cost, and the cooperation of the border checkpoints with Turkey and Azerbaijan in the context of the Middle Corridor. The EU lists the procedure of the summit, the things to be done. signing of letters of intent, pre-agreements in relevant fields, a list of possible benefits for Armenia, etc., proposing steps aimed at strengthening and intensifying partnership relations, for example, in the fields of transport, energy, digital, people-to-people ties, involvement of the Armenian diaspora, involvement of Tumo Center in digital education processes, etc.

In the document, for example, it is stated in several places: “The President can announce:…” we are talking, presumably, about the President of Armenia or the Speaker of the RA National Assembly, or the chairman of the summit. In other words, even the president is not provided with freedom of speech and the right to decide what to say on his own. According to Hraparak, a high-ranking EU official, Hoa-Bin Ajemyan, who has close ties with some pro-government businessmen in Armenia, took part in the drafting of this document-proposal. Years ago, he was the head of the cooperation department in the office of the EU delegation operating in Armenia, including in the period before the “revolution” of 18, and was often a guest at the office of the EU delegation.

Returning to the so-called package of proposals of the EU, let’s present its content. The document refers to the energy sector. According to the Europeans, Armenia’s energy sector faces the challenge of grid instability, which complicates large investments in renewable energy, effective power management and conservation, as the battery energy storage system is missing, and there is a need to upgrade and modernize the grid. The European partners offer their help, as well as advise what the president should say in his speech regarding this. They also promise investments of up to 1 billion dollars in this field.

The package of proposals also refers to the digital sphere, the successes of Armenian companies in this sphere are recorded, and the goal is “the integration of Armenia into the European digital economy”. They offer cooperation models and a fund where approximately 60 million euros of capital can be mobilized. In this section, the names of a number of well-known organizations in the field are mentioned, among which is NVIDIA. the latter’s vice president was in Yerevan a few days ago, meeting with Nikol Pashinyan. In the context of preparations for the summit, the document also talks about people arriving in Armenia starting from March. The company “Synopsys Armenia” is also mentioned, the director of which is Hovik Musayelyan, who closely cooperates with the authorities and is a member of the Public Council. He was also in the group of those who went on an excursion to the Kirants wall with Pashinyan.

The EU partners did not ignore the Armenian diaspora with its well-established organizations, such as AGBU, the Armenian Benevolent Union. It is noted that the Armenian diaspora, with its strong communities and businesses in Europe, its activity in the fields of culture and public policy, is one of the most important strategic assets of Armenia, and AGBU has a long history of education, entrepreneurial support and international cooperation. Cooperation between the EU and AGBU would help mobilize the diaspora more systematically and strengthen the ties between Armenia and Europe. And the diaspora could become a bridge between Armenia and Europe. By the way, AGBU issued a statement in 2023 to respect Artsakh’s right to self-determination, and last year called on the RA authorities to respect the autonomy of the church. The topic of possible cooperation with Tumo Center and Dilijan International College was also included in the package of EU documents-proposals. It is written that they want to take advantage of Tumo’s experience, and Dilijan International College, in a region with unresolved conflicts, can play a strategic role in encouraging dialogue and prepare the next generation for peaceful cooperation.

Now let’s look at the 2 most important points of this document-proposal package.

1. “Rehabilitation of border checkpoints with Turkey and Azerbaijan, special attention on data exchange (e-custom, e-freight) in order to build an efficient and integrated middle corridor. In order for the Middle Corridor to flourish and be resilient and be fully integrated into the regional rail and road network, “reducing Russian influence,” the document says. And they advise what the Armenians can announce and what these announcements will help, for example: “…will help to attract EU private investments”.

2. And, of course, the topic of the railway, which is being hung over Armenia’s head like a sword of Damocles. In the proposal document, it is clearly written in black and white: RA must undertake to eliminate the Russian monopoly and re-nationalize the railway.

This topic has been widely discussed. For example, they write: Armenia’s railway network currently operates through a 30-year (2008-2038) concession agreement granted to the South Caucasus Railway (a subsidiary of Russian Railways). They make a number of proposals to reduce Russian influence, increase EU involvement and attract potential EU investments, as well as to get as close as possible to EU transport requirements. For example, to dismantle the monopoly of the national railways, to separate the company of rails, railroaders and the general management. This approach, according to the EU, will reduce Armenia’s dependence on Russia, open up new opportunities, such as investments in additional segments of the railway network (concession island), so that the railway system of Armenia is integrated with the regional one (Azerbaijan and Turkey), while keeping the Russian railway operator away from the rehabilitated track (on the Eurotunnel model). The European partners did not forget to remind that Armenia will probably be required to pay compensation to the Russian company for this. There is also talk that at some stage of the changes, Armenia may transfer the management of the infrastructure from the Russian company to an independent unit. According to EU partners, this change will create a favorable environment for investments in line with EU standards.

The interest of the EU in all this is obvious, but it remains unclear where the interest of RA is. Especially if we take into account that the EU has not fulfilled the previous promises of investments and aid. And does Armenia have enough resources to be able to abruptly abandon RA-RF relations and cooperation with all the economic consequences arising from it?

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