Armenia’s Constitutional Debate and the Regional Balance of Power

Caucasus Watch, Germany
May 9 2026
9 May 2026 | Insights, Politics, Armenia

Armenia’s constitutional debate is increasingly intersecting with regional power dynamics, as shifts in governance models and legal frameworks signal the country’s strategic orientation between actors such as Russia, the European Union, and neighboring Turkey. Far from being a purely domestic reform process, constitutional changes carry implications for security alliances, conflict-resolution mechanisms, and the broader balance of influence in the South Caucasus. As such, the outcome of this debate may redefine not only Armenia’s internal political order, but also its role within a rapidly evolving regional geopolitical architecture.

Armenia adopted its first Constitution in 1995, establishing a presidential system. Reforms in 2005 introduced a semi-presidential model, while the 2015 Constitution completed the transition to a parliamentary system, significantly reshaping the country’s political structure. Following the 2018 revolution, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan pledged constitutional amendments, calling the system “super-prime-ministerial.” However, the issue was later deprioritized amid shifting political developments, before re-emerging in the context of the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process and the initialing of a Washington-brokered agreement.

Official Baku insists that constitutional change is a precondition for a peace treaty. President Ilham Aliyev argues that Armenia must remove references in the Constitution’s preamble that, in his view, imply territorial claims over Nagorno-Karabakh and support unification narratives. The preamble itself refers to Armenia’s Declaration of Independence, which is based on the December 1, 1989, joint decision of the Armenian SSR Supreme Council and the Nagorno-Karabakh National Council on “reunification.” It also commits Armenia to supporting international recognition of the 1915 Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire and Western Armenia.

Baku demands the removal of any reference to the Declaration of Independence. At the same time, Yerevan states that the Washington-initialed peace draft includes mutual recognition of no territorial claims and a commitment that domestic law cannot be used to avoid treaty obligations. It also emphasizes that constitutional change is an internal matter. Pashinyan has separately stated that his political force supports removing references to the Declaration of Independence in a new Constitution, describing it not as a declaration of independence but as one of conflict and dependence.

Authorities plan to hold a constitutional referendum after parliamentary elections, though no date has been set. The draft must first pass parliament with a two-thirds majority. According to the Justice Ministry, the draft is complete and under ruling-party review and does not include a preamble referencing the Declaration.

The key question remains whether the referendum will pass and proceed without obstacles. The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, in its declassified 2026 “Annual Threat Assessment,” also noted that the outcome is uncertain due to potential challenges. Pashinyan has further stated that if the referendum fails, a second vote may be held. Opposition figures and analysts argue the reforms are driven by pressure from Baku and Ankara to remove references to Nagorno-Karabakh and genocide recognition, while the government maintains that constitutional decisions rest solely with the Armenian people.

Against this backdrop, constitutional reforms have become closely linked to efforts to finalize a peace agreement, normalize relations, and redefine Armenia’s position within the regional order. This article examines their implications for the balance of power and long-term stability in the South Caucasus, assessing what this could mean not only for Armenia’s domestic political trajectory, but also for the viability of the peace process and the credibility of externally mediated agreements. From a regional perspective, what impact could the adoption or rejection of Armenia’s new Constitution have? Could failure to approve the draft affect the authorities’ broader regional peace agenda? We sought answers from Armenian expert circles.

Constitutional Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Peace Process

Robert Ghevondyan, a political expert at the ‘Armenian Council’ Analytical Center, said in a conversation with us that if the new Constitution is adopted, it will not include a preamble.This would leave Azerbaijan with no grounds to delay signing the Peace Agreement. As a result, the agreement is expected to be signed, which could also pave the way for progress in other areas.

According to Robert Ghevondyan, the primary direction is the unblocking of infrastructure. It is expected that this will lead to the reopening of transport routes across the region, which would have a tremendous impact on unlocking economic potential. On the other hand, Robert Ghevondyan points to two key conditions for the adoption of the Constitution, both of which appear unlikely to be met, though there remains some possibility.

“The first is securing a constitutional majority in the National Assembly elections—either by the ruling Civil Contract party on its own or in agreement with another political force—so that they can put the issue to a referendum. The second, if that hurdle is overcome, is the referendum per se. During the referendum, it would be necessary to gather around 622,000 votes from those eligible to vote in the June 7 elections, which is also a fairly difficult task—especially given that there will be significant opposition to the adoption of the new Constitution. In my assessment, the chances of the new Constitution being adopted or failing are roughly equal—about 50/50. If the new Constitution does not pass, the processes will most likely continue, but they will proceed much more slowly and with a greater degree of unpredictability”.

Ghevondyan also noted that during the recent bilateral roundtable discussions held in Azerbaijan from April 10 to 12, within the framework of the ‘Bridge of Peace’ initiative and with the participation of civil society representatives from both Azerbaijan and Armenia—discussions in which he also took part—the question was raised as to what Azerbaijan’s approach would be, and how it would prefer to proceed, if the Constitution were not adopted in any way, whether it was not put to a referendum or failed to pass.

“The Azerbaijani participants expressed the view—though this is still just an opinion, not a final decision—that in such a case the Peace Agreement would likely not be signed. However, efforts would be made to advance processes in various areas even without signing the agreement. In other words, there would be some progress on the points already outlined, which means that even in the event of failure, there would still be slow but tangible progress,” the political analyst noted.

As for the likelihood that the Prime Minister of Armenia might put the constitutional referendum to a vote multiple times, the political analyst believes that, procedurally, this would not be so easy for the state. Securing the required two-thirds of the vote each time would be challenging—regardless of whether the ruling Civil Contract party holds that majority on its own or together with another political force. “To form a government, 51 percent is sufficient—that is, they may together have 51 percent. However, when it comes to putting the issue to a referendum, they would need to reach an agreement with another political party. And each time—the second, third, and so on—they would inevitably have to pay some political price in return for doing so. This will be quite difficult.”

And the next obstacle, according to the political analyst, is that the process is quite costly and burdensome for the state in terms of financial and organizational resources.

“The ruling Civil Contract party may choose to pursue this, but regardless of how many times the issue is put to a referendum, the probability will not change. Each time, I assess the chances as 50/50,” the political analyst concluded.

Referendum Risks and the Constitutional Dimension of Regional Negotiations

Our second interlocutor, Gevorg Danielyan—Professor, Head of the Chair of Constitutional Law at Yerevan State University, Advisor to the Constitutional Court of the Republic of Armenia, and former member of the Constitutional Reforms Committee—is convinced that, first and foremost, Armenian society is largely not inclined to accept the view that the authorities have adopted a genuine peace agenda. According to Danielyan, it is more than evident that the political force in power is simply seeking to reproduce itself and remain in office by accommodating the ever-growing demands of Azerbaijan and Turkey—even at the cost of conceding territories, weakening the pillars of national identity, and initiating a campaign against the Armenian Church.

“Linking the entire saga of adopting the Constitution to the peace process is a misguided approach and may, in fact, do more harm than good to that process,” Gevorg Danielyan argues. In response to our question about possible scenarios in the event of a failed referendum (including the prospect of a repeated vote), and what this could mean not only for Armenia’s internal situation but also for the viability of the peace process and the credibility of internationally mediated agreements, Professor Danielyan noted: “First of all, no such agreement has actually been signed; these are merely initialed documents with no legal force. Unfortunately, this clear reality is consistently being ignored by the Armenian authorities, without a proper assessment of the potentially disastrous consequences.  I have stated as early as four years ago that the referendum is doomed to fail from the outset. More recently, the intelligence community of the United States—the mediating side—also clearly expressed doubts about the feasibility of the Azerbaijani demand.

The issue is not only the open antipathy toward the unpopular Constitution, but also the fact that the required turnout threshold for the referendum is at least 50 percent of eligible voters. However, due to widespread political apathy, this threshold has never been reached in recent nationwide elections. Moreover, in the 2023 Yerevan City Council elections—where a significant portion of the population is concentrated—voter turnout was only 28.4 percent. Furthermore, the authorities cannot artificially boost turnout by scheduling the referendum on the same day as nationwide elections, as this is prohibited by law”, Professor Danielyan notes. When asked about what Armenia would gain or lose if the reference to the Declaration of Independence were removed from the Constitution, Gevorg Danielyan believes that adopting a new Constitution with such wording—a scenario he considers virtually zero probability—would inevitably lead to a reduction of Armenia’s sovereignty and, in the near future, even to the complete loss of statehood. “That is not a guarantee of peace; rather, as I noted, it will whet appetites and bring to life other already circulating demands, including plans to regard Armenia as ‘Western Azerbaijan’ and, at the initial stage at least, to settle it with around 300,000 Azerbaijanis.”

According to Gevorg Danielyan, the Armenian authorities have, either intentionally or unintentionally, initiated a process that leads to an inevitable deadlock and trap, since if the Constitution is not adopted, Armenia could be characterized as a state that, by virtue of its Constitution, holds territorial claims against a neighboring country. “Unfortunately, these perceptions were also reinforced by the Constitutional Court, as it did not attempt to properly assess the Constitution’s preamble referencing the Declaration of Independence and confirm that it contains no provisions establishing territorial claims. Instead, it advanced the highly controversial thesis that the preamble allegedly has no normative character and therefore cannot produce legal consequences. Even the most basic truth was overlooked—namely, that the preamble is intended to reveal the true intent of the constitution-maker, which is of crucial importance for interpretation. Even the fact was overlooked that the reference was not made to all provisions of the Declaration, but solely to ‘the fundamental principles of Armenian statehood and the national objectives enshrined therein. Ultimately, the Declaration refers solely to the respect for the people’s right to self-determination, which is a well-established principle of international law,” Danielyan notes. 

Gevorg Danielyan is confident that, from the outset, by yielding to unfounded Azerbaijani demands, the current Armenian authorities have adopted a policy of presenting them as supposedly justified based on their own narrative and, in turn, implementing them. In his view, this is a direct path leading into a trap. “Accordingly, it is necessary to be guided not by the publicly stated and often changing positions of officials, but by legally binding international treaties, and the Azerbaijani side cannot fail to take this undeniable reality into account,” the constitutional lawyer concludes.

Controversy Over Historical and Territorial References in the Declaration of Independence

Our third interlocutor, political commentator and coordinator of the ANI Armenian Research Center, Tatul Hakobyan, believes that Armenia has made a grave mistake by linking its internal procedures—namely the adoption, amendment, and voting on the Constitution—to the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process. In his view, Armenia has, in effect, given a commitment to Azerbaijan to amend its Constitution, specifically by removing the reference to the Declaration of Independence from the Constitution’s preamble. 

“And if the referendum is not adopted in Armenia—and there is a high likelihood that many people will go and vote against it—I believe this could give Azerbaijan grounds to accuse Armenia of maintaining territorial claims against it and, why not, to attempt a partial incursion into the territory of the Republic of Armenia by using this as a pretext. I am not saying this will happen, but I also do not rule out the possibility that Azerbaijan may try to exploit such a situation,” the political analyst warns. Tatul Hakobyan does not rule out the possibility of a repeated vote or any other procedures, because, in his view, the current Armenian authorities have decided to normalize Armenia–Azerbaijan relations by all means and at any cost. He adds that, in addition to removing the reference to the Declaration of Independence from the Constitution’s preamble, they may also take other steps and could even push it through using falsifications.

“I cannot say in advance that there will be fraud, but I repeat that the stakes are so high that I do not rule out the possibility of it being carried out through falsification. First, we need to see how these elections conclude, and only then will things become clear. After all, people also grow tired of participating in so many elections, and amid a day-by-day decline in the authorities’ approval ratings, holding yet another referendum—which is being conducted exclusively at Azerbaijan’s demand—is significant. However much the authorities may use different wording, the fact remains that it is being done at Azerbaijan’s request. I also do not rule out that Armenian citizens may say ‘no’ simply because it is Azerbaijan’s demand, without even delving deeply into the substance,” Tatul Hakobyan believes.

Tatul Hakobyan recalls that he has been among those who have consistently stated that including historical claims and territorial demands in the Declaration of Independence was a mistake, and he maintains that Armenia made an error in 1990. “In fact, it is a demand, because you are putting history into a legal document, namely, you are referring to the Armenian Genocide, to Western Armenia, and moreover, to the 1989 decision to reunify the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region (Artsakh) and Armenia. I consider that to have been a political mistake, which is working against Armenia. Therefore, I do not believe that if the people vote in favor of it, Armenia would suffer major losses as a result, because, as I repeat, this is a provision that should not have been included so that it would not be removed now,” political commentator concludes.

Looking Ahead

In conclusion, Armenia’s constitutional debate has moved well beyond a purely domestic legal reform and now sits at the intersection of internal politics and regional geopolitics. The proposed changes—particularly those concerning references to the Declaration of Independence—are increasingly viewed not only as constitutional adjustments, but also as elements linked to the broader Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process.

While the authorities present the reform as a sovereign initiative aimed at institutional modernization and normalization of relations, critics argue it risks being shaped by external pressures and becoming politically instrumentalized. At the same time, assessments differ on the consequences of a potential referendum failure, ranging from slowed reform momentum to increased uncertainty in the regional peace framework.

Ultimately, the constitutional process has gained significance far beyond its legal scope. It has become a test of political consensus, public trust, and Armenia’s strategic orientation. The outcome of a future referendum will therefore carry implications not only for domestic governance, but also for the credibility and stability of the evolving peace architecture in the South Caucasus.

Contributed by Anna Vardanyan, an Armenian political journalist and researcher with over 18 years’ experience in defence policy, international relations, and security in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, has worked for Armenian media and held advisory roles in the National Assembly of Armenia.


Dispute over return puts a strain on the peace process in Nagorno-Karabakh

BlueWin
May 9 2026

The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh and the demand for the return of the displaced population are not leaving Armenia in peace. Swiss politicians are also discussing these sensitive issues.

Keystone-SDA

The fronts in the South Caucasian state are hardened: While some fear that a return of the displaced people could jeopardize the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, others believe that the peace process is doomed to failure without the inclusion of the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians.

“We are collateral victims of the conflict between Russia and the West,” says Artak Beglaryan, referring to the displaced population from Nagorno-Karabakh. He left his homeland in September 2023 along with around 100,000 other Armenians.

Since then, as president of the non-governmental organization “Artsakh Union”, he has been campaigning for the return of the displaced population to their homeland, as he said in an interview with the Keystone-SDA news agency in Yerevan. Nagorno-Karabakh is also known as Artsakh in Armenia.

The population was displaced by the Azerbaijani military, which brought the region under the control of Baku. Nagorno-Karabakh has always been Azerbaijani territory and was populated by a majority of Armenians until 2023.

“According to the last census conducted in 1987, 184,000 people lived in Nagorno-Karabakh, 142,000 of whom were Armenians and 42,000 Azerbaijanis,” says Roman Karapetyan, a political scientist at Yerevan State University. More recent reliable figures are not available.

Peace process does not provide for return

The government in Yerevan is offering the displaced population a settlement program in Armenia. This includes obtaining an Armenian passport and financial aid. “The money is enough for a family to buy a house,” says Karapetyan. Around 40,000 people have already made use of this.

At the same time, the Armenian and Azerbaijani governments are trying to normalize relations. In August 2025, they signed a joint declaration in Washington under the aegis of US President Donald Trump with the aim of achieving peace. A possible return of the displaced population is not mentioned in the declaration.

Process does not bring “real peace”

“The people of Nagorno-Karabakh are not part of the discussion and are suffering,” says Armine Aleksanyan, a former diplomat for the Republic of Artsakh. The current peace process is being imposed and cannot be described as “real peace”. “It will be difficult to talk meaningfully about such a ‘peace’,” adds Aleksanyan, who was recently in Switzerland.

At the end of April, she met Swiss members of parliament from the “Swiss Peace Initiative for Nagorno-Karabakh” committee, who are campaigning for her cause, at the Federal Palace. The committee is calling on the Federal Council to organize an international peace forum with Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians to negotiate the return of the displaced population.

The committee’s demand is based on a mandate given to the government by parliament in March 2025. “The initiative was good and urged the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs to act,” says National Councillor Stefan Müller-Altermatt (center/SO), who is also a member of the committee. “In concrete terms, however, the peace initiative has still achieved too little.”

Return is “the most sensitive issue”

Both the government in Baku and that in Yerevan do not want to know anything about a forum for the return of the displaced population, as they have already communicated several times. “To have a discussion, you have to be in pairs,” said President Guy Parmelin earlier this week on the sidelines of a European summit in Yerevan.

The meeting of the European Political Community (EPC) was hosted by the Armenian government. All European states except Russia and Belarus were invited, as well as the heads of international organizations such as the EU.

The return is “the most sensitive issue”, said an EU official in Brussels, speaking on condition of anonymity before the summit. The EU would rather not talk about it, he continued.

“The West does not want to talk about our return because it fears that it could jeopardize the peace process,” said Beglaryan. “But peace is only possible through a just, inclusive and sustainable solution.”

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was of a different opinion at the summit. He condemned a resolution recently passed by the European Parliament. It would “sabotage” the process, he said in his speech.

In the resolution, the Parliament reiterated its support for the rights of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, including their right to a “safe, unhindered and dignified return”.

Nagorno-Karabakh is an issue in the election campaign

Thanks to the resolution from Brussels and the work of the committee in Bern, the issue remains on the agenda, says Beglaryan. It is therefore an issue in the current election campaign in Armenia.

Parliamentary elections will be held in the South Caucasian state on June 7. While the incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan avoids the topic of Nagorno-Karabakh, opposition candidates are taking it up in the election campaign, according to the observer Karapetyan, but sometimes without making concrete commitments.


Can Armenia Leverage AI to Become a Sovereign Global Tech Hub? Insights from t

Special Eurasia
May 9 2026

Can Armenia Leverage AI to Become a Sovereign Global Tech Hub? Insights from the Yerevan Dialogue 2026

Executive Intelligence Snapshot

This report assesses Armenia’s emergence as a global technological hub, analysing how the nation is leveraging massive infrastructure investments and international partnerships to transform its geopolitical standing through AI sovereignty.

Context

In contemporary geopolitics, artificial intelligence has emerged as a fundamental pillar of economic security and state capacity, positioning governments as the primary funders, users, and architects of the global AI market. However, this critical shift is accompanied by significant structural challenges, most notably the high concentration of the AI stack, from high-end semiconductors to massive cloud infrastructure, within the hands of a very small group of dominant players.

Furthermore, persistent vulnerabilities in global supply chains and a growing imperative for strategic autonomy have made the maintenance of AI sovereignty a vital priority for nations seeking to navigate an increasingly competitive and fragmented technological landscape.

In this scenario, Armenia has emerged an interesting market where the combination between artificial intelligence, foreign investments, and political support is working to transform the country into a global tech hub.

The future of artificial intelligence in Armenia, and the Caucasus, was among the main topics discussed during the Yerevan Dialogue 2026, an event which followed the European Political Community gathering and discussed the Caucasian country’s main future challenges and opportunities.

SpecialEurasia had the opportunity to be involved in the Yerevan Dialogue 2026 and being actively involved by moderating the panel “AI Sovereignty and Scale: Governing Frontier Technologies in a Competitive World”, which saw the participation of the following panellist:

  • Mkhitar Hayrapetyan, Minister of High-Tech Industry, Armenia
  • Omran Sharaf, Assistant Foreign Minister for Advanced Science and Technology, UAE
  • Christos Harpantidis, Group Chief Corporate Affairs Officer, Philip Morris International
  • Arsen Babayan, Chief Technology Officer, Ineco Group, Armenia.

AI in Armenia: Opportunities and Challenges

Armenian High-Tech Industry Minister Mkhitar Hayrapetyan discussed the ambitious infrastructure project led by Firebird, a US-based AI infrastructure firm, in strategic partnership with NVIDIA and Dell Technologies. While the venture was originally announced in late 2024 and 2025 as a $500 million initiative, it saw a massive expansion in February 2026, bringing the total investment to $4 billion. These data centres are set to utilise NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs, with plans to transition to GB300 units later, all integrated into high-performance Dell PowerEdge servers.

The project’s second phase involves the delivery of 41,000 to 50,000 GPUs, a scale that would propel Armenia into the top five countries globally for GPU computing capacity. For those less familiar with the technical requirements of the field, AI training demands an immense volume of simple mathematical calculations performed simultaneously; because GPUs are specifically engineered for this type of parallel “brute force” processing, they remain the gold standard for training Large Language Models.

The project’s initial phase, valued at $500 million, will focus on establishing the foundational AI super-computing cluster and infrastructure with a capacity of over 100 MW. The second phase involves a $3.5 billion expansion dedicated to massive hardware scaling and long-term support, a development announced during a high-level US diplomatic visit to Yerevan in early 2026. Ultimately, the facility will function as an “AI Factory” or “AI Cloud,” supplying computational power for global commercial clients as well as domestic Armenian initiatives, particularly in life sciences, robotics, space exploration, and government digital transformation.

Minister Hayrapetyan emphasised that the initiative extends beyond merely building computational capacity, as Armenia aims to integrate AI across its entire economy by prioritising three early integration tracks. The first pillar focuses on education and talent development, which involves deploying AI tools throughout all universities and technical schools while providing researchers and students with access to high-performance computing resources. To support this, the Minister announced the establishment of the AI Virtual Institute, a new institution through which Yerevan has secured agreements with AWS (Amazon Web Services) and Firebird AI. Under these partnerships, AWS provides solution architects to mentor Armenian technical teams in designing cloud-native AI applications.

The second pillar centres on private sector acceleration, supported by new legislation and a state-funded program adopted last year to provide consistent investment in the tech sector. Minister Hayrapetyan highlighted that the ultimate objective is to foster local Research and Development (R&D) rather than focusing solely on outsourcing.

The third pillar targets the public sector through the introduction of smart governance, digitalisation, and smart city concepts. Regarding the energy costs associated with becoming a “garden of AI data centres”, Hayrapetyan noted that Armenia possesses sufficient energy resources and is open to green energy investments, particularly in solar power, as Caucasian countries are actively encouraging significant investment in the energy sector.

Omran Sharaf, the UAE’s Assistant Minister for Advanced Science and Technology, addressed the challenges nations face in maintaining AI sovereignty while remaining dependent on global semiconductor supply chains. Sharaf described the UAE’s approach as holistic, noting that Abu Dhabi prioritises establishing critical strategic partnerships built on trust, transparency, and safeguards rather than relying exclusively on domestic production. He further explained that building true confidence requires moving beyond mere technology transfer to include the transfer and joint development of technical know-how.

Regarding the value the UAE brings to such partnerships, Sharaf highlighted the nation’s extensive experience in space and nuclear programs, as well as its current efforts to build massive compute-cluster capabilities through deep collaboration with like-minded nations. Open-source data confirms that the UAE possesses some of the world’s most powerful compute clusters, having made “sovereign compute”, the ownership of independent AI supercomputers, a central pillar of its national security and economic strategy. Drawing on his background as the former lead of the Emirates Mars Mission, Sharaf cited the UAE’s space program as a prime example of this trajectory, evolving from initial cooperation with South Korea and the United States to the successful establishment of its own autonomous program.

Given that the UAE has already established itself as one of Armenia’s top three investment partners, maintaining a relationship centred on energy, logistics, and high-value trade, Yerevan could significantly benefit from expanding this cooperation into the high-tech sector.

Sharaf also emphasised that establishing default partnerships fosters geopolitical stability; integrated supply chains ensure that partner nations have a vested interest in maintaining a continuous flow of resources, thereby promoting mutual safety and stability. In his concluding remarks, Sharaf highlighted the urgent need for international cooperation regarding ethics and standards to prevent the harmful application of new technologies, specifically citing the risks associated with disinformation.

The discussion then shifted to the challenges facing the private sector, with insights from Christos Harpantidis of Philip Morris International (PMI). He noted that for a multinational corporation operating across 180 countries, navigating a patchwork of diverse regulations remains a significant hurdle; while total uniformity is unrealistic, he argued that regulatory compatibility would create a much more navigable business environment.

Regarding cooperation with Armenia, Harpantidis described the country as one of PMI’s global R&D hubs, emphasising the company’s “innovation DNA”. PMI has invested over $16 billion in research and development over the past 12 years, becoming one of Europe’s largest patent holders, with AI now deeply embedded in its R&D processes.

While traditionally recognised as a tobacco company, PMI’s presence in Armenia is strictly high-tech, focusing on Data Science, AI, Systems Engineering, and scientific research. By employing local scientists and engineers and collaborating with Armenian universities, the company has fostered a successful history of cooperation where the code, mathematics, and scientific breakthroughs developed in Yerevan are utilised by PMI offices worldwide.

To conclude the panel with a perspective from the front lines of technology deployment, the discussion turned to Arsen Babayan, Chief Technology Officer at Ineco Group, one of the Yerevan Dialogue’s sponsors.

Arsen Babayan argued that for a small state such as Armenia, the distinction between the private sector, public institutions, and national defence is notably porous, meaning that AI unreliability represents a fundamental threat to national security rather than a mere technical niche concern. He posited that true technological sovereignty extends beyond the ownership of hardware and data to include the explain ability of AI models, suggesting that Armenia must move beyond post-hoc guesswork toward the cutting-edge field of interpretable design.

Furthermore, he highlighted that trust is inextricably linked to efficiency, noting that local firms face significant technical barriers when attempting to implement complex compliance and security guardrails individually. To address this, Babayan proposed the development of national “governance-as-code” applications, plug-and-play frameworks provided by the state, which would allow companies to scale rapidly while remaining within legal and ethical boundaries.

He warned that unless Armenia masters these decision-making processes and streamlines governance, it risks being relegated to the status of a mere consumer, while mission-critical applications remain the exclusive domain of those who can prove the legitimacy of their algorithms.

The discussion concluded with a focus on the “cognitive divide”, where Harpantidis warned that the real gap lies not in infrastructure, but in the disparity between those who control algorithms and those who lack the knowledge to build them. They stressed that failing to include the Global South in AI development risks institutionalising global inequality and turns algorithmic bias into a fundamental threat to national sovereignty.

Conclusion

The strategic transformation of Armenia finds its most resonant _expression_ in the words of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan during the opening ceremony of the Yerevan Dialogue. He observed that while Armenia remains geographically fixed where it has always been, its geopolitical position has changed dramatically in just a few years. While this shift is often discussed in terms of the Crossroads of Peace and the opening of physical borders to become a vital east-west corridor, a less advertised but equally profound evolution is underway.

For decades, Armenia was sidelined from regional transit due to closed borders and deemed less competitive due to a lack of traditional oil and gas resources. However, Yerevan has successfully pivoted toward a new era of relevance by establishing itself in the digital realm.

By securing its place among the top five nations globally for GPU computing capacity and leveraging its abundant energy resources, Armenia is transitioning from a landlocked geography to a central hub on the “Silicon Road”. This ascent not only secures the country’s strategic autonomy but also ensures a promising future for a new generation of highly skilled Armenian talent, proving that in the age of AI, intellectual and computational power are the new currencies of sovereign strength.

Written by

  • Silvia Boltuc

    SpecialEurasia Co-Founder & Managing Director. She is an International affairs specialist, business consultant and political analyst who has supported private and public institutions in decision-making by providing reports, risk assessments, and consultancy. Due to her work and reporting activities, she has travelled in Europe, the Middle East, South-East Asia and the post-Soviet space assessing the domestic dynamic and situations and creating a network of local contacts. She is also the Director of the Energy & Engineering Department of CeSEM – Centro Studi Eurasia Mediterraneo and the Project Manager of Persian Files. Previously, she worked as an Associate Director at ASRIE Analytica. She speaks Italian, English, German, Russian and Arabic. She co-authored the book Conflitto in Ucraina: rischio geopolitico, propaganda jihadista e minaccia per l’Europa (Enigma Edizioni 2022).


Turkish Press: Azerbaijan delivers another shipment of petroleum products to A

Anadolu Agency, Turkey
May 9 2026
Baku delivered domestically produced petroleum products to the neighboring for the first time in December
Kanyshai Butun
ISTANBUL

Azerbaijan on Saturday delivered 479 tons of diesel fuel in eight railcars to Armenia, state news agency Azertag reported.

Baku has so far exported more than 8,500 tons of diesel fuel, 979 tons of AI-92 gasoline and 2,955 tons of AI-95 gasoline to Yerevan.

Another shipment from Russia to Armenia is also being transported through Azerbaijan.

To date, more than 27,000 tons of grain, 4,000 tons of fertilizer, 133 tons of aluminum and 68 tons of buckwheat have been shipped from Russia to Armenia via Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan delivered domestically produced petroleum products to Armenia for the first time in December.

The two South Caucasus neighbors signed a declaration at a trilateral summit at the White House in August 2025, alongside US President Donald Trump, to end decades of conflict, with commitments to cease hostilities, reopen transport routes and normalize relations.


Armenpress: Iranian media reports new ‘sporadic clashes’ with US forces in Ho

Iran21:13, 8 May 2026
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Iranian media reported new sporadic clashes between Iranian armed forces and American vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

“For the last hour, sporadic clashes have taken place between the Iranian armed forces and American vessels in the Strait of Hormuz,” Iran’s Fars news agency said.

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Published by Armenpress, original at 

Iranian, Turkish, foreign ministers hold phone call

Turkey21:43, 8 May 2026
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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, held a telephone conversation on Friday.

According to Turkish Foreign Ministry sources, the two ministers reviewed the current stage of the talks between Tehran and Washington.

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Published by Armenpress, original at 

Campaign period for June 7 parliamentary elections kicks off in Armenia

Politics08:43, 8 May 2026
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The campaigning period for the June 7 parliamentary elections kicked off in Armenia on Friday.

The following 19 political forces are running for parliament:

Civil Contract Party; Prosperous Armenia Party; Meritocratic Party of Armenia; Against All Democratic Party; Strong Armenia Alliance (comprising the Strong Armenia Party, New Era Party, and United Armenians Party); Democratic Consolidation Party; Wings of Unity Party; Bright Armenia Party; National Democratic Pole Alliance; Armenia Alliance (comprising the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) and the Forward Party); Christian-Democratic Party of Armenia; Armenian National Congress Party; New Force Reformist Party; Republic Party; Alliance Progressive-Centrist Party; Reformists Party; Democracy, Law and Order Party; Kochari National Revival and National Awakening Party; and the Alliance of Defenders of the Republic’s Democracy.

Some of the parties have already published their scheduled campaign events for Friday, during which they will present their manifestos.

Strong Armenia, led by business tycoon Samvel Karapetyan, will kick off its campaign outside the parliament building at 10:00, with senior party member and Karapetyan’s nephew, Narek Karapetyan, scheduled to deliver a press briefing. Later in the day, at 19:00, the party will hold a rally in Victory Park near the Mother Armenia statue.

The Bright Armenia Party, led by former lawmaker and former ambassador-at-large Edmon Marukyan, will start campaigning at 11:00, with party members scheduled to head to Yeraskh from their Yerevan headquarters.

Wings of Unity, led by former Ombudsman Arman Tatoyan, will start its campaign at 11:00 in Goshavank. Party members will also visit Ijevan, as well as the villages of Achajur and Azatamut.

Meanwhile, the ruling Civil Contract Party, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, will campaign across Syunik Province, starting the trip at 10:00 in Gorayk and visiting multiple towns and villages.

The Reformists Party will unveil its manifesto on May 8 at an event. 

The National Democratic Pole Alliance said it would kick off its campaign outside the parliament building in Yerevan.

The Armenia Alliance, led by former president Robert Kocharyan, will start campaigning at 18:00 in Vagharshapat.

The campaign period will last until June 5.

June 6 will be an election silence day.

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Pashinyan says his administration saved Armenia from “banana republic” fate, s

Politics10:32, 8 May 2026
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Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reiterated on Friday that his administration had secured peace for Armenia for the first time since the country’s independence.

He dismissed accusations voiced by some opposition figures claiming that Armenia had peace before 2018, when he came to power, and that his administration’s actions led the country to war in 2020.

Pashinyan, speaking on the first day of the official campaign period for his Civil Contract party, said that Armenia had never had peace before.

“We had war, because every year we had casualties and wounded soldiers. Where have you seen peace in a place where soldiers are being killed and injured? We did not have peace; we had a continuous war and a constant postponement of the war’s escalation, and the deadline of that postponement was signaled by the April 2016 war. But it is also very important that the April war was preceded by a completely new package of proposals for the settlement of the Karabakh issue, which is now known to all of us and has been published,” he said.

According to him, the framework for resolving the Karabakh issue had already been defined at the 1996 Lisbon Summit, and the Karabakh issue had effectively been resolved back then. This entire delay and postponement, he said, was aimed at one thing: resolving the “Armenia issue” — meaning the elimination of Armenian statehood.

“And this is exactly what we understood, and we understood very quickly that Armenia was in a trap, and our task was to pull Armenia out of that trap. At the cost of our casualties and sacrifices, we have pulled Armenia out of that trap, and this is the most important thing. Those who say the sacrifices were in vain do not understand this — that Armenia’s statehood was saved from the trap,” Pashinyan said.

Pashinyan said the scenario his administration faced in 2018 was one in which the Republic of Armenia, as a sovereign state, was meant to cease to exist and, at best, become a “banana republic” that would need permission from various places even to “breathe in and out.”

“Now the time has come for us to defend the Armenia we have today,” Pashinyan said.

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Armenia is safer and more sovereign today than ever – PM

Politics20:55, 8 May 2026
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Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan said the security of Syunik is guaranteed.

Pashinyan stated that following the agreements reached with the President of Azerbaijan in Washington on August 8, 2025, in the presence of the US President, all issues related to Syunik has been resolved and the region’s security guaranteed.

The leader of the “Civil Contract” party, Pashinyan, who is currently on leave for the election campaign, said he is confident that Armenia is safer and more sovereign today than ever.

“We must stop dreaming of a bigger homeland, because the Republic of Armenia is the homeland we dream of. We are no longer refugees, and we must settle in Armenia together with the Armenians of Armenia, the Armenians of Karabakh, and the Armenians of the world,” he said.

Pashinyan noted with satisfaction that each time he visits Goris, he sees new developments, including new streets, buildings, and capital investment projects.

“Despite all the difficulties and complications, Goris is one of the good examples of cooperation between local self-government bodies and the government. Goris is truly being revived, and this is a great joy for us,” he said.

Pashinyan stated that following the results of the 2021 parliamentary elections, Armenia pursued a path toward peace.

“The scenario we followed was the only path to peace, believe me. In 2024, I made an extremely difficult decision for myself, saying that we must stop the Karabakh movement. This was a difficult decision for me because I entered politics because of the Karabakh movement,” he said.

“When I became familiar with the negotiation process in 2018, I realized one thing: with those documents, the Karabakh issue had long been resolved and closed,” he added, noting that he saw the only way forward through strengthening Armenia’s independence and statehood.

“Elections are a trial. You know our failures, you know our shortcomings and successes, and you can judge us, Whatever decision the people make, we will obediently follow it,” Pashinyan added.

He also announced that the “Civil Contract” party will hold a major rally in Kapan on May 9 at 7:30 p.m.

The pre-election campaign for Armenia’s parliamentary elections, scheduled for June 7, officially began on May 8 and will continue until June 5. Nineteen political forces have registered to participate in the elections, including two alliances and 17 parties.

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Joint Declaration on Strategic Dialogue raises Armenia-Croatia relations to ne

Politics09:30, 8 May 2026
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‍‍Andreja Metelko-Zgombić, State Secretary for Europe at the Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs of Croatia, considers the signing of the Joint Declaration on Strategic Dialogue between Armenia and Croatia a significant development in bilateral relations.

She said the declaration would elevate relations between the two countries to a new level of cooperation across a number of areas.

‍‍Metelko-Zgombić made the remarks in an interview with Armenpress on the sidelines of the Yerevan Dialogue 2026 forum.

During the interview, she also touched upon the current state and prospects of Armenia-Croatia relations, Zagreb’s views on the expansion of Armenia-European Union ties, as well as the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus, particularly the Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process.

The Croatian official described the initialing of the peace agreement between Yerevan and Baku as a historic achievement not only for the two countries, but also for the wider region.

 Armenia-Croatia bilateral relations

I am happy to say that the Croatian-Armenian relations have been intensifying at the political level in recent years. Armenia’s closer relationship with the EU, including the upgraded EU and Armenia Strategic Partnership Agenda, also provides an important framework for expanding cooperation.

I held very productive political consultations in Yerevan last November and I can attest significant interest in further strengthening our political and economic ties, including in the technological and defense industries, the agri-food industry, as well as cultural and scientific cooperation. An important area of interest is Croatia’s experience with EU integration processes, transfer of knowledge and experience in implementing reforms.

Croatia’s EU accession experience represents a credible and recent success story, making us a trusted partner. Since its entry into the EU in 2013, Croatia has demonstrated a strong political commitment to sharing know-how, supporting 13 partner countries through over 1.000 technical assistance activities and 53 Twinning projects.

I am glad to be able to share that the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Croatia, along with their Slovenian partner, was selected for a Twinning project with the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Armenia. This joint health project marks a milestone as the first structured cooperation of this kind between Croatia and Armenia. This project goes beyond technical assistance, it represents a strategic partnership built on shared values, solidarity, inclusiveness and commitment to accessible public services.

Another area in which Croatia is ready to share its experience is demining. The EU’s Eastern Neighborhood is one of the priorities of the Croatian development policy. Our focus is on technical assistance through sharing of national experience and expertise in post-war stabilization and recovery (especially humanitarian demining) and socio-economic and democratic transition. I am especially pleased to hear that the Armenian Centre for Demining and Expertise (ACHDE), following a successful EU tender process, has selected robotic demining systems from the Croatian company DOK-ING. I am confident that this project will significantly increase safety and security of local communities affected by explosive remnants of war and further contribute to confidence-building efforts in the region.

At the same time, we are also keen to draw on Armenia’s expertise. During my last-year’s visit to Yerevan, I was thrilled to visit Armenia’s TUMO center, which left quite an impression on me. TUMO presents a cutting-edge blend of creativity and technology in digital skill education and we would like to bring this innovative youth program to Croatia as well. I must say this is a project I am personally invested in.

Let us not forget the centuries old historic, cultural and spiritual ties shared by Croatia and Armenia. We have a common saint – Saint Blaise, a patron saint of Dubrovnik as of 10th century, who is of Armenian origin. As well as Josip Marinović who wrote the first history of Armenians in the West already in 18th century.

The Joint Declaration on Strategic Dialogue between Croatia and Armenia was signed during the Croatian prime minister’s visit to Yerevan to participate in the 8th Summit of the European Political Community Summit.

The signing of the Joint Declaration on Strategic Dialogue between Croatia and Armenia by Prime Minister Plenković and Prime Minister Pashinyan represents a milestone in our bilateral relations. I am certain it will bring our relations to a new level of cooperation in a number of fields (regional and international cooperation, security, defense and justice, economy and infrastructure, industry, energy, education, science, culture and tourism).

This includes cooperation in projects of regional and international trade and transport connectivity, specifically through support to each other’s connectivity projects, such as Armenia’s “Crossroads of Peace” initiative.

I believe the Joint Declaration also reflects Croatia’s and Armenia’s concerns, as small countries with rich yet vulnerable ecosystems, when it comes to addressing climate change challenges. The Joint Declaration calls for collaboration on implementing Sustainable Development Goals, promoting innovation and technological advances, and transition to a green economy, as well as cooperation in the field of energy, particularly on renewable energy projects.

When it comes to cooperation on sustainable food and agriculture systems, direct contact has been established between the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Croatia and the Armenian side with a focus on cooperation in the field of smart farming and improving trade. We see significant potential in this area. Finally, this Declaration marks a key step in advancing our political dialogue, deepening sectorial cooperation and setting out a forward-looking bilateral agenda.

The 8th Summit of the European Political Community in Armenia

European Political Community is an excellent format to address the challenges we are facing in Europe today as they do not recognize borders and require broad pan-European coordination. Croatia has supported this forum since the very beginning, as a unique platform for dialogue and cooperation.

The topics of yesterday’s European Political Community summit are extremely relevant – strengthening connectivity and reinforcing democratic resilience.

The South Caucasus, including Armenia, is a vital trade hub that has the potential to improve economic connectivity between Europe and Asia through the so-called Middle Corridor. Connectivity is no longer just about infrastructure. It is about security, resilience and Europe’s long-term competitiveness.  The war in Ukraine has already shown how disruptions to energy, transport and supply chains affect Europe’s security and resilience and recent developments in the Middle East have further highlighted the vulnerability of key energy and trade routes.

For Croatia, connectivity is a strategic reality. Croatia’s geostrategic position offers one of the shortest maritime routes between Europe and Asia. Our goal is to leverage this position in order to enhance the overall standing of our wider region within Europe and on the global stage. In this context, Croatia hosted the Three Seas Initiative summit last week. The aim is to connect the Baltic, Black and Adriatic Seas in order to improve our connectivity. Our approach is guided by the principle that connectivity must strengthen resilience – economically, energetically and politically. It is also a matter of deterrence and military mobility, shaping our ability to act and respond in times of crisis.

Croatia’s support to Armenia – EU partnership

Let me congratulate Armenia on hosting the first-ever EU–Armenia summit, which is a historic step that reflects how much our relationship has deepened, grounded in shared values, mutual interests, and respect for a rules-based international order.

The EU’s engagement focuses on strengthening Armenia’s democratic and economic resilience, supporting peace and normalization in the region, and enhancing connectivity to unlock security and economic benefits for Armenia, the region, and the EU.

In this context, the EU has adopted the 270 million euros Resilience and Growth Plan for 2024–2027 as well as the Strategic Partnership Programme, alongside a Visa Liberalisation Plan.

Our cooperation already brings tangible security, economic and societal benefits. The EU has deployed the civilian EUMA mission to strengthen border security, stability and resilience against hybrid threats. The recently announced establishment of the new EU Partnership Mission will further enhance Armenia’s democratic resilience and crisis management abilities. The EU actively supports peace and normalization with neighbouring countries through programmes for economic development, connectivity, cross-border cooperation and building confidence. The assistance also includes demining support, including equipment from Croatia’s renowned company DOK-ING as well as aid to displaced Karabakh Armenians, with Croatia contributing 250,000 euros. Through the Resilience and Growth Plan, the EU is further advancing democratic reforms, investment in energy and transport, and private sector development. The EU-Armenia landmark visa liberalisation dialogue, provided Armenia’s continued progress in meeting benchmarks, should lead to a visa-free travel for Armenian citizens. 

Armenia also plays a key role in regional connectivity, particularly through the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, which is both an opportunity and a necessity for the region and the EU, as confirmed by the launch of the EU-Armenia Connectivity Partnership. By investing in connectivity, we are enhancing stability. The EU investments in transport, energy, and digital links are helping create jobs, boost trade, and strengthen resilience.

Croatia strongly welcomes the intensification of EU–Armenia relations, as demonstrated by the outcomes of this summit. EU support is especially important in strengthening Armenia’s resilience to foreign interference and safeguarding democratic progress. Upcoming parliamentary elections will carry not only domestic importance but also wider geopolitical significance for the South Caucasus.

Croatia’s position on the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process

Croatia welcomes the significant steps taken by Yerevan and Baku toward normalizing relations, including the agreements signed in Washington last August and the initialling of the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace treaty. This represents a historic achievement not only for both countries but also for the wider region. In this context, the gradual normalization of relations with Türkiye, including the swift opening of borders, is crucial for regional stability.

We encourage both Armenia and Azerbaijan to ensure the timely implementation of agreed steps, particularly the signing and ratification of the peace treaty. The EU, together with international partners, has long supported both sides in fostering conditions for lasting peace and will continue to do so. In particular, we welcome civil society contacts as an essential component for achieving sustainable peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan and for advancing confidence-building measures.

Drawing on its post-war experience in stabilisation and recovery, border demarcation and delimitation, and demining as mentioned above, Croatia stands ready to offer its expertise and support to Armenia upon request.

We also emphasize the importance of enhancing regional connectivity and unblocking trade routes, which can deliver tangible benefits for all populations in the South Caucasus. The EU is advancing these goals through initiatives such as the Global Gateway strategy and the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, in close coordination with partners. In this regard, Armenia’s “Crossroads of Peace” initiative aligns well with the EU objectives by contributing to regional cooperation and connectivity.

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