Cancellation of NATO drills Azeri people’s success – TV
ANS TV, Baku
13 Sep 04
NATO has postponed the military exercises that were due to start in
Baku on 14 September, a representative of NATO’s information centre
in Baku, Vaqif Dastgahli, has told ANS.
He said the information would be confirmed officially.
Armenian officers were invited to attend the military exercises within
the framework of NATO’s Partnership for Peace programme. In fact,
the invitation angered the Azerbaijani public a lot.
Thus, the Azerbaijani public led by the president has managed to
protect our state independence. This was not the first time in our
latest history when our independence had been endangered by the now
failed NATO event. History shows that the young Azerbaijani state has
faced and may still face more trials like that. What happened has
also demonstrated that the Azerbaijani people and their government
can be together at most critical moments.

Azeri, Armenian foreign ministers invited to NATO office in Brussels – agency
Turan news agency
13 Sep 04
Baku, 13 September: According to diplomatic sources, the Azerbaijani
and Armenian foreign ministers, Elmar Mammadyarov and Vardan Oskanyan,
have been invited to the NATO headquarters in Brussels.
The two ministers were invited urgently for consultations over the
participation of Armenian officers in NATO’s Cooperative Best Effort
2004 military exercises [in Baku].
Judging by the fact that NATO has cancelled the exercises, the sides
have failed to agree on the Armenians’ visit to Baku.
Armenian sources, in turn, have reported that five Armenian officers
spent all day at the Azerbaijani embassy in Georgia yesterday trying
to obtain visas to Azerbaijan. However, they had to return to Yerevan
without the visas.

Armenian minister says cancellation of NATO drills “loss of opportunity”
Mediamax news agency
13 Sep 04
Yerevan, 13 September: Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan and
NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer expressed their deep
concern at a meeting in Brussels today that “Azerbaijan hindered
the participation of Armenian servicemen in NATO exercises at the
highest level”.
The Armenian Foreign Ministry press service reported that “the NATO
secretary-general said that such an approach was unacceptable for
a Partnership for Peace member country and was assessed as a breach
of commitments”. Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said that if the Azerbaijani
authorities did not reverse their decision today, the NATO leadership
would cancel the exercises.
Vardan Oskanyan rated highly NATO’s principled position on this issue,
noting that “the cancellation of the exercises because of Azerbaijan is
a great loss of an opportunity for regional cooperation”. The Armenian
foreign minister said that Yerevan’s official position was that the
authorities of regional countries should try to implant the idea of
cooperation into the minds of their people, which will help settle
conflicts. In this connection, Vardan Oskanyan recalled that although
Armenia and Turkey had no diplomatic relations, Turkish servicemen had
taken part in the Cooperative Best Effort – 2003 exercises in Armenia.
Vardan Oskanyan filled the NATO secretary-general in on the latest
developments in the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh problem and
the Armenian-Turkish dialogue at the level of the foreign ministers
of the two countries.
The Armenian foreign minister also met the US ambassador to NATO,
Nicholas Burns, at the NATO headquarters. Vardan Oskanyan filled
him in on the current stage of Armenia-NATO relations, and the sides
exchanged views on the security in the South Caucasus, settlement of
conflicts and measures to build confidence between neighbours.

RUSSIAN TV TELLS BUSH TO BACK KIND WORDS WITH ACTION
RTR Russia TV, Moscow
13 Sep 04
(Presenter) US President George Bush has personally expressed his
sympathy for Russian people who suffered in the terrorist attack
in North Ossetia (when school was seized by hostage-takers on 1
September). (Passage omitted: previously reported entry in book of
condolences by Bush)
(Correspondent Konstantin Semin) If you flick through this sorrowful
book, you will find entries by (Secretary of State) Colin Powell,
(head of Office of Homeland Security) Thomas Ridge and (Secretary
of Defence) Donald Rumsfeld. The doves and hawks in the Republican
administration may differ with regard to all sorts of things, but not
to terrorism. (Passage omitted: previously reported remarks by Bush)
(Correspondent) Five minutes earlier, according to eye-witnesses,
Bush assured Russian officials that there are no double standards in
the USA’s foreign policy with regard to Russia. People can write and
say different things, but you have to believe what you hear from me,
Bush said.
It seems that a sharp change in tone in commentaries in the US press is
linked to Bush’s resoluteness. Today, even the most liberal newspapers
are not advising Russia to hold talks with bandits.
(Yuriy Ushakov, Russian ambassador to USA) The tone was sympathetic
from the beginning. It was one of support, help and cooperation. From
major US figures there was not a single statement that could be read
as expressing double standards.
(Correspondent) The visit to the Russian embassy by the US president
is no ordinary event in relations between the two countries. Over the
last 20 years it has happened just twice: Ronald Reagan and George
Bush Senior came to the embassy. The reasons for their visits were
an earthquake in Armenia and the Chernobyl disaster.
If everything that Bush said is part of some kind of new course aimed
at moving closer to Russia in its fight against terrorism, the US
president’s words will need to be followed by real actions. The first
place to feel this must be the Caucasus, where the fate not just
of individuals, but of whole peoples at times depends on relations
between Moscow and Washington.

SYMPHONIC ORCHESTRA OF KARABAKH
Azat Artsakh – Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR)
13 Sept 04
The Armenian General Benevolent Union (AGBU) undertook a program
of financing the two-year work of a group of musicians from Yerevan
headed by conductor Gevorg Muradian in Nagorni Karabakh. The group will
greatly contribute to the establishment of the symphonic orchestra
of Nagorni Karabakh. The group arrived in Stepanakert on September
10. We had an interview with conductor Gevorg Muradian. He has been
the conductor of the symphonic orchestra of TV and radio for 18 years,
up today the conductor of the philharmonic orchestra and choir of
Armenia, chief conductor of the symphonic orchestra of Yerevan,
choirmaster of a number of church choirs. â^À^ÜMy old dream was to
visit Artsakh, work here and be useful to this land. Today is a happy
day for me as I am surrounded by supporters. We already have a contract
for two years and we have a great mission to accomplish here. 12
musicians arrived with me, two will join us a little later. We are
grateful to the government of Karabakh and the AGBU due to whom this
excellent opportunity of creating a chamber orchestra in Karabakh was
provided. We have liberated our lands, however we must also create
culture, develop spiritual life in this country. I consider this
a far-reaching strategic step. On Tuesday we shall meet with the
prime minister. I think he will not object to calling the orchestra
â^À^ÜArtsakhâ^À^Ý.
AA. 13-09-2004

ARTSAKH CONDEMNS TERRORISM
Azat Artsakh – Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR)
13 Sept 04
On September 1 of 2004 when the children of the world as usual
celebrated the beginning of the new school year and the Day of
Knowledge, for hundreds of children of the town Beslan, North Osetia
the new school year did not startâ^À¦ On these days in different
parts of the planet meetings and actions are organized condemning
this monstrous terrorist act. Nagorni Karabakh could not remain
indifferent toward this either as the people of Karabakh have
known terrorism and tragedyâ^À¦ On September 9 a number of public
organizations â^À^Ó â^À^ÜMaternityâ^À^Ý, â^À^Ü Society of Parents of
Killed Military Men of NKRâ^À^Ý, â^À^ÜUnion of Relatives of Missing
Azatamartiksâ^À^Ý, â^À^ÜUnion of Veterans of War and Workâ^À^Ý,
â^À^ÜUnion of Veterans of Artsakh Warâ^À^Ý and youth organizations
â^À^Ó organized an action of protest against the terrorist act in
Beslan. The march of protest started at the Stepan Shahoumian park at
08:00 PM. With posters and slogans such as â^À^ÜDown with terrorâ^À^Ý ,
â^À^ÜDeath to terroristsâ^À^Ý, â^À^ÜNo to terrorâ^À^Ý, â^À^ÜBeslan,
weâ^À^Ùre with youâ^À^Ý the participants of the march moved to
the town memorial complex where the protest action continued. The
chairman of the organization â^À^ÜMaternityâ^À^Ý Hasmik Mikaelian
mentioned in her speech that the people of Artsakh who went through
the bloodshed and pogroms in Sumgait, Getashen, Martunashen, Baku and
other places in Azerbaijan can understand the pain and tragedy of the
people of Beslan. The action of protest was organized at the memorial
complex for the reason that the memorial to the innocent victims of
the massacres in Sumgait and the memorial stones of azatamartiks of
Artsakh are here. â^À^ÜDue to the humanism of hundreds of thousands
people of the world and heroism of medical workers many people who
suffered during the terrible actions in Beslan return to life. We
mourn for the innocent victims and receive any news about those who
are returned to life with tears. We send the warmth of our hearts to
the children of Beslan and invite them to our highlands of longevity,
to learn in our schools,â^À^Ý said H. Mikaelian. The participants
of the protest meeting presented a message to the people of the
Russian Federation. The message runs, â^À^ÜWe the inhabitants of
the town Stepanakert, as a sign of protest against the monstrous
terrorist action at school N1 of the town Beslan of North Osetia,
Russian Federation, and in commemoration of the hundreds of innocent
children and their parents who fell victim to this action today
we have come out to an all-town meeting â^À^Ó march called by the
NKR public organizations. We are extremely indignant of the inhuman
actions of the undertakers, organizers and participants of the action,
and despite its motives we consider it a monstrous crime against the
right of the humanity and especially its younger generation to live. We
the people of Stepanakert who not long ago experienced the great pain
and bitterness of loss of relatives, among them schooling age children
during the massacres of the peaceful Armenian population in Sumgait,
Baku, Kirovabad and other places in Azerbaijan in 1988-1990, as well
as during the military actions against Nagorni Karabakh, are fully
conscious of the horror and tragedy of what happened in Beslan. We
are sorrowful for the martyrdom of the brave people who lent a hand
of help to the Beslan schoolchildren and the other inhabitants of the
town and express our condolence with the relatives of the innocent
victims, the people of the Russian Federation and North Osetia. At
the same time, we the participants of this protest action severely
condemn terror in the world.â^À^Ý

‘Cinema days’ festival celebrates Middle East filmmaking
Event provides overview of Arab film production in last 2 years
By Jim Quilty
Daily Star staff
Tuesday, September 14, 2004
BEIRUT: It is autumn. This is when cinephiles hereabouts – fatted on
a summer of Hollywood blockbusters and wretched Egyptian comedies –
ask themselves: “What is the state of Middle Eastern cinema?” And they
receive a sort of answer in the panoply of film festivals that adorn
Beirut at this time of year – August’s Ne a Beirut, October’s Middle
East Film Festival and, wedged between the two, Ayam Beirut Cinemaiyya.
This is Beirut’s third “Cinema Days,” a bi-yearly event assembled
by the squad of 20-somethings who are Beirut Development and Cinema
(Beirut DC) – the five-year-old cultural co-operative whose politics
tend to be as progressive and independent-minded as the films they
promote.
The organizers conceive of Ayam Beirut Cinemaiyya as a noncompetitive
festival whose mission is to provide an overview of the Arab film
produced over the past two years and a meeting place for the region’s
filmmakers, local and expatriate. Over 10 days, the festival will
screen over 100 films – 13 features, 40 documentaries, 45 shorts,
and a smattering of experimental and student films.
The opening film will be “Bab al-Shams” (Door of the Sun), Egyptian
director Yousri Nasrallah’s much-anticipated adaptation of the novel
of the same title. Written by Lebanon’s Elias Khoury, the book is
a poetic tour de force focusing upon the experiences of a circle
of refugees fleeing from Palestine to Lebanon. The evening of the
festival premier, a special open-air screening of “Bab al-Shams”
is planned for Sabra-Shatilla.
“Bab al-Shams” comes to Beirut on the heels of its world premier at
Cannes. Cannes was also host to “Our Music,” by French auteur Jean-Luc
Godard. Set in Sarajevo and addressing the Israeli-Palestine crisis,
Godard’s film represents a sort of return to the region after 30
years – when his “Here and Elsewhere” was first released.
As in years past, Palestine is a central leitmotif of this festival,
with over 20 films on the subject, directed by Palestinian, Arab and
foreign filmmakers. These include “Soraida – A Woman From Palestine,”
by Tahani Rashed; “Writers on the Borders” by Samir Abdullah; “Ijtiah”
by Nizar Hassan; “Like Twenty Impossibilities” by Anne-Marie Jacir;
“In the Ninth Month” by Ali Nassar and “Private Investigation” by
Oula Tabari.
The 2004 edition of the Ayam Cinemaiyya also has a number of films
that are neither new nor Arab. There is a special section of foreign
films on the Arab World. In addition to the Godard piece, there is
Frederic Laffont’s “1001 Nights,” a personal diary shot in Palestine,
and “2000 Terrorists,” a documentary about four of the plaintiffs in
the Belgian court case against Israeli Premier Ariel Sharon, by Peter
Speetjens and Hanro Smitsman. There are also a pair of “guest films”
– “Abouna,” by Chad’s Mohammed Saleh Haroun, and “Vodka Lemon,” a
film set in Armenia by Iraqi Kurd Hinner Selim. The film selection
is rounded out by a retrospective from Arab documentarians.
Beyond the films themselves, there will be a pair of roundtable
discussions. One will be a debate about cinema representations of
Palestine called “Palestine: Champ ou Contre-Champ?” featuring Samir
Qassir, Elias Khoury, Omar Amiralay and a filmed contribution by
Jean-Luc Godard himself. The second debate, on “identity” in the Arab
cinema today, features the input of filmmakers from around the region.
The festival also will hold a workshop in animation, painting and
drawing, conducted by award-winning Serbian animator Vuk Jevremovic,
and a Beirut DC production called “5X5: Lebanese productions on
35mm.” A video installation called “Body,” by Catherine Cattaruzza and
Vatche Boulghourjian, will be on display in the Cinema Estral in Hamra.
Beirut DC’s Elaine Raheb says she and her colleagues viewed over
300 films before settling on the festival’s 130 pieces: “We tried to
select quality films that were representative of what’s happening in
the region’s cinema.”
Presumably this puts them in a unique position to assess “the present
state of Arabic cinema.”
“The documentary is the genre that’s shaping the identity of the
Arabic cinema right now,” she says, “It’s freer.”
This is no surprise, really, given the fact that outside Egypt,
there is no Arab film industry to speak of. Without the financial and
technical infrastructure enjoyed by European and U.S. filmmakers,
it is much more difficult for Arab directors to participate in the
culture of high-quality independent feature film seen there.
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“When we say films we’ve chosen are ‘independent,'” says Beirut DC’s
Hania Mroue, “we mean films that have been made relatively free of
the constraints of distributors and producers.”
Some of these films were indeed produced largely or completely on
the director’s own steam, like “Klephty” by Egypt’s Mohammad Khan
and Mahmoud Hojeij’s “The Silent Majority,” a Lebanese experimental
film about a fellow who wakes up one day to find he’s turned into
a dog. Elie Khalife’s comic short feature “Van Express,” follows a
pair of young entrepreneurs who, frustrated that they are legally
barred from flogging coffee on Beirut’s Corniche, find more success
when they use their van in a different trade.
“Some of our films were made under the influence of producers, of
course,” adds Raheb, pointing out several that were either European
co-productions or else were commissioned by television networks in
the region.
“But even in these cases, you feel that the directors are making a
very personal statement with their work. They may address subjects
like ‘terrorism,’ ‘Islam’ or ‘the Palestine conflict’ but they have a
singular point of view that makes them different from most television
documentaries.”
Examples of such independently minded commissioned pieces include
“Children of the Cedars” by Dimitri Khodr, (commissioned by New
TV). Bassem Fayad’s “Road Beyond Sunset” and Jad Abi Khalil’s “His
Majesty, Mr. President,” both inspired by events in Iraq, were
commissioned by the Al-Arabiyya network.
“These films all reflect a changed attitude among television
programmers,” says Raheb, “especially at Al-Arabiyya. We hope it
continues.”
Other festival films represent a compromise between the creative and
commercial imperative. “Best Times,” by the young Egyptian director
Hala Khalil, is part of a new trend in Egyptian feature film –
begun by Hani Khalifa’s “Sahar al-Layali” – which has seen Egyptian
producers turn to young filmmakers to produce something besides
infantile comedies.
“Egyptian film producers realise now that there are younger
filmmakers who have scripts that speak to the younger generation,”
says Raheb. “They approached Khalil to make a film and she already
had her own script. She wanted to make a film from her own point of
view and it has been a commercial success without being commercial.”
Among the several European co-productions are a pair of uniquely
intimate documentaries – Malek Bensmail’s Franco-Algerian “Alienations”
is about the patients in an Algerian mental hospital, while Mohammed
Zran’s Franco-Tunisian-Moroccan “The Song of the Millennium” is about
people on the edge of Tunisian society when the world officially
entered the 21st century.
Among these co-productions, too, are a number of films about women,
“Women Beyond Borders,” by Lebanese documentary veteran Jean Chamoun,
“When Women Sing,” by Mustafa Hasnaoui, and Hala Galal’s “Women Chat.”
“It’s a film about two generations of women oppressing women,” says
Raheb. “Not the sort of thing you find on the market or on television.”
These films may reflect the European producers’ concerns with certain
issues – namely Palestine, Iraq, women, and Islam – but Raheb is
cautious about suggesting that Arab directors are simply playing to
European tastes to get funding. “Filmmakers in this region are in a
crisis now. They see the Western media representing the people of the
Middle East as heroes, victims or terrorists and it is impossible to
ignore. If they take up these topics themselves it’s because they’re
trying to position themselves relative to these issues. They’re in
crisis, but trying to find a solution.”
The Ayam Beirut al-Cinemaiyya Arab film festival runs from Sept. 15-26
at Cinema Sofil, Achrafieh. For more information contact: +961 1
293212 or +961 3 192587 or email [email protected]
From: Baghdasarian

Armenian officers not given visas to attend NATO drills in Azerbaijan
ANS TV, Baku
13 Sep 04
[Presenter] NATO exercises start in Baku today. However, it is
still unclear whether Armenian officers will attend the exercises or
not. Aleksey Manvelyan, a BBC correspondent in Yerevan, quoted the head
of the Armenian Defence Ministry press service, Seyran Shakhsuvaryan,
as saying that the Armenians will not come to Azerbaijan.
[Manvelyan, by phone, in Azeri] According to the latest reports,
the Armenian officers will not attend the NATO military exercises due
in Azerbaijan today. Five officers of the Armenian armed forces have
been waiting for a decision from the Azerbaijani embassy in Tbilisi
since last week in order to visit Azerbaijan. According to a report
we received today, the Armenian officers have not been allowed to
visit Baku. The press secretary of the Armenian Defence Ministry,
Seyran Shakhsuvaryan, said that US representatives in NATO had been
tackling the issue of visas for the Armenian officers.
[Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan is to meet NATO
Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer in Brussels on 13 September to
discuss the Azerbaijani decision not to allow the Armenian officers
to attend the exercises, Armenian news agency Mediamax reported on
the 13th (Yerevan, in Russian 0520 gmt).]

Armenian opposition party condemns decision to send troops to Iraq
Noyan Tapan news agency
13 Sep 04
Yerevan, 13 September: The Armenian authorities’ decision to send a
50-strong Armenian military unit to Iraq under the command of the
Polish military contingent is premature and “simply selfish”, the
chairman of the Democratic Party of Armenia and a National Assembly
member from the Justice bloc, Aram Sarkisyan, has said in an interview
with a Noyan Tapan correspondent.
He noted that his party roundly condemned this step and called on
National Assembly members to vote down the Armenian authorities’
agreement to send Armenian servicemen to Iraq.
“If our powers that be had explained to the USA on time that Armenia
had a unique position with a large diaspora all over the world and
in Arab countries in the first place, I think this would not have
happened. Instead, the Armenian authorities are trying, as they
believe, to win the USA round,” Aram Sarkisyan said.
In the opinion of the Democratic Party leader, Armenian servicemen
should be dispatched when stability is established and peaceful
reconstruction starts in Iraq. It cannot be ruled out in the current
situation, he believes, that Armenians will be taken hostage, and in
this context, the blast at the major Christian church in Baghdad was
kind of a signal.
Aram Sarkisyan expressed his perplexity over the fact that
Armenian servicemen would be stationed in Iraq within the Polish
contingent. “Poland is a NATO member, and our authorities have all
of a sudden forgotten that Armenia is a member of the CIS Collective
Security Treaty Organization. This decision is completely confusing
from the point of view of political culture.”
The Democratic Party chairman is confident that the decision
to send Armenian servicemen to Iraq runs counter to the national
interests. “While a country like Spain is withdrawing troops from Iraq,
Armenia wants to be swept into this vortex.”
The Democratic Party has issued a statement condemning this decision
of the Armenian authorities. The statement calls on the Armenian
public to take an active civic position on this issue.

Analysis: NATO Cancels Planned Maneuvers In Azerbaijan
By Liz Fuller
RFE/RL
13 September 2004 — NATO’s Cooperative Best Effort-2004 exercises,
scheduled to take place on 14-27 September in Azerbaijan, have been
canceled, according to a NATO press release of 13 September.
“We regret that the principle of inclusiveness could not be upheld
in this case,” the press release stated, without elaborating. But
Lieutenant-Colonel Ludger Terbrueggen, who is a spokesman for NATO
military command, told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service the same day that
“the reason…is that Azerbaijan did not grant visas to soldiers and
officers of Armenia.”
Since January, Baku has sought repeatedly to thwart the
planned Armenian presence at this year’s Cooperative Best Effort
maneuvers. Three Armenian military officers who tried to travel to Baku
in early January first from Turkey and then from Georgia to attend
a planning conference for the maneuvers were prevented from doing
so. In June, members of the radical Karabakh Liberation Organization
(QAT) picketed, and then forced their way into, a Baku hotel where
two Armenian officers were attending a second planning conference
in preparation for the exercises. Five of those QAT activists were
arrested and sentenced in late August to between three and five years’
imprisonment on charges of hooliganism, violating public order, and
obstructing government officials. Those verdicts triggered protests
from across the political spectrum, fueling public opposition to the
Armenians’ anticipated arrival.
In April, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev assured Deputy Commander
of the U.S. European Command General Charles Wald that there were
no obstacles to the Armenian participation in the September war
games. Other visiting U.S. officials also sought to impress on
Azerbaijan the importance of allowing the Armenian contingent
to attend. But in recent weeks, the Azerbaijani government has
made increasingly clear its hostility to the planned Armenian
participation. On 27 July, the independent ANS TV quoted Deputy
Foreign Minister Araz Azimov as saying that Baku has stipulated that
only noncombat personnel — military journalists, public-relations
officials, and military doctors — would be permitted to attend, and
that the number of Armenian participants would be limited to three. (On
4 September, however, Armenian Deputy Defense Minister Major General
Artur Aghabekian said seven Armenian officers would take part in the
exercises, while the number denied visas by the Azerbaijani Embassy in
Tbilisi was given as five.)On 10 September, the Azerbaijani parliament
adopted an appeal to NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer to
retract the invitation extended to the Armenian side, citing what it
termed Armenia’s aggression and policy of ethnic cleansing.
The opposition daily “Azadlig” on 10 September quoted Foreign Minister
Elmar Mammadyarov as saying that Azerbaijan would not grant visas
to the Armenians. And on 10 September, the Azerbaijani parliament
adopted an appeal to NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer to
retract the invitation extended to the Armenian side, citing what
it termed Armenia’s aggression and policy of ethnic cleansing. The
parliamentarians argued that the presence in Baku of Armenian military
personnel could aggravate tensions in the region. President Aliyev
stated while visiting the Barda region on 11 September, “I do not
want the Armenians to come to Azerbaijan.”
In an apparent last-ditch effort to persuade Baku to abandon its
obstructionist approach, de Hoop Scheffer summoned Azerbaijani Foreign
Minister Mammadyarov and his Armenian counterpart Vartan Oskanian to
Brussels on 13 September for talks. Oskanian subsequently praised the
NATO decision to call off the exercises, adding at the same time that
he regrets the “lost opportunity for regional cooperation.”
Armenia hosted the NATO Cooperative Best Effort-2003 exercises,
in which some 400 troops from 19 countries, including the United
States, the United Kingdom, Russia, Georgia, and Turkey practiced
routine peacekeeping exercises. Azerbaijan declined to participate. In
February 2004, a junior Azerbaijani officer attending a NATO-sponsored
English language course in Budapest hacked a sleeping Armenian fellow
student to death with an axe.
The full impact of Azerbaijan’s violation of NATO’s “principle of
inclusiveness” and of NATO’s ensuing decision to cancel the planned
exercises is difficult to predict. The move is likely to corroborate
many Azerbaijanis’ conviction that NATO is guilty of double standards
and bias toward Armenia. It may also give rise to a certain coolness
between Brussels and Washington, in light of persistent rumors that the
United States is considering Azerbaijan as a possible location for a
rapid-reaction force. Certainly the prediction by one Western analyst
that “Azerbaijan will enter NATO by 2005,” which made headlines in
the Azerbaijani press in July 2002, now seems somewhat overoptimistic.