Russian Influence Drains Away in the South Caucasus

Vorskanian Yeghisabet
May 22 2026
Armenia is building closer relations with the EU, underlining Russia’s diminishing influence in the South Caucasus.
a:hover]:text-red” st1yle=”box-sizing:border-box;border-width:0px;border-style:solid;border-color:currentcolor;font-size:1.125rem;line-height:2rem”>By Emil Avdaliani
May 22, 2026

For decades, Moscow’s power in the South Caucasus rested on military presence, conflict-management formats, energy leverage, and economic influence.

This is now under visible strain. Armenia is actively engaging the European Union (EU), Azerbaijan has grown significantly more assertive in its foreign policy, while Georgia is deepening selective economic links with China and the Middle East, while abstaining from restoring diplomatic ties with Russia.

Yet of the three countries, this trend is most visible in Armenia. It is Armenia that was closest to the Kremlin right up to the point when its supposed friend stood idly by during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and the eventual fall of the entity in September 2023. The logic had been that Armenia needed Russian aid should something happen to Karabakh, a logic that evaporated after defeat.

Extensive engagement with the EU should be seen from this perspective, with the events of early May in Yerevan only underlining the trend. Armenia hosted the European Political Community summit on May 4, followed by the first-ever EU-Armenia summit on May 5. The sides launched a €200m ($232m) partnership, while EU investments in Armenia under the Global Gateway strategy are expected to reach €2.5bn.

This matters because Moscow’s traditional leverage over Armenia has depended on the absence of viable alternatives. The EU’s engagement changes this equation. Brussels cannot replace Russia as a hard-security guarantor, yet it can provide greater access to its market, investments, and transport and infrastructure cooperation — areas where Moscow is less competitive given its forever war against Ukraine. The Kremlin’s reaction was swift. It accused Armenia of entering the EU’s “anti-Russian orbit” and warned of political and economic consequences.

But it is not only about the EU. China is likewise expanding its reach into the South Caucasus, albeit in a much subtler way. For instance, Georgian commercial banks are preparing to join China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, known as CIPS. The latter is a wholesale payment system authorized by the People’s Bank of China. This is not replacing SWIFT, nor abandoning the dollar or euro. Rather, it is about diversification by giving Georgian banks a more direct channel for renminbi transactions and reducing the role of intermediaries.

The same broader pattern is visible in Azerbaijan. Beijing and Baku have explored deeper financial and investment cooperation, including discussion of a joint investment fund involving Azerbaijan Investment Holding and China’s Silk Road Fund to finance infrastructure, logistics, energy, and industrial projects. China was also reported as Azerbaijan’s third-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $4.87bn in 2025.

This matters for Russia. Although China is not challenging Moscow militarily in the South Caucasus, it is expanding its influence through other means where Russia cannot effectively compete. Beijing brings finance, infrastructure interest, greater commercial opportunities, and payment-system alternatives. It is also free of the historical baggage associated with Russian rule.

Armenia has lagged behind Georgia and Azerbaijan in its engagement with China and its financial institutions. That may be about to change. In early May, Armenia’s deputy economy minister, Anushik Avetyan, argued that China was an important partner for Yerevan and that the two sides wanted to expand trade and investment programs in Armenia. This comes on top of the strategic partnership agreement signed in 2025.

Armenia’s challenge remains its geography and underdeveloped regional transport and other links. Yet if Armenia’s “Crossroads of Peace” concept advances, and if transport links with Azerbaijan and Turkey are developed as is suggested, Yerevan could become more attractive to Chinese and other Asian investors. That would further weaken the old Russian assumption that Armenia’s economic geography must run primarily northward through Russia.

The EU and Chinese engagement with the South Caucasus, though different in scope and ambition, are part of the same trend, namely, the diminution of Russia’s primacy in the region.

Russia is no longer the only external state capable of providing economic access, infrastructure links, or diplomatic cover. Its key pillar of influence remains the military, the aspect that so far no other big powers or regional actors are able to contest.

Can Russia reconstitute its power in the South Caucasus? Much will depend on how the upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia unfold. Should the ruling party, Civil Contract, win another term, Moscow might opt for a “civilized divorce”, the ambiguous and possibly ominous term suggested by the Russian leadership.

Emil Avdaliani is a research fellow at the Turan Research Center and a professor of international relations at the European University in Tbilisi, Georgia. His research focuses on the history of the Silk Roads and the interests of great powers in the Middle East and the Caucasus.

Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.


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Armenia-Turkey joint commission holds meeting on shared use of Akhuryan River

George Mamian
Aysor, Armenia
May 22 2026

A joint session of the Armenia-Turkey commission on the shared use of the waters of the Akhuryan River and Araks River has taken place.

According to Water Committee of Armenia, the meeting was held in Yerevan for the first time.

It is noted that several important agreements have been reached during the meeting. No details regarding the agreements have been disclosed.

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National Pavilion of Armenia [at Malta Biennale 2026]

Lilit Nahapetian
Malta Today
May 22 2026

Armenia makes its debut at Malta Biennale 2026 with a deeply reflective national pavilion by artist Raffi Yedalian, transforming Fort St. Elmo into a meditative space exploring memory, silence and cultural resilience

For the first time in its history, Malta Biennale 2026 welcomes the National Pavilion of Armenia, represented by artist Raffi Yedalian with the sculptural and sound installation The Sound of What Was Never Seen — a participation that resonates far beyond the walls of the exhibition space. Presented within the historic setting of Fort St. Elmo, Armenia’s debut pavilion offers visitors not simply an artwork, but a profound emotional and philosophical experience rooted in memory, silence, resilience, and rebirth.

Curated by Sona Hovhannisyan, the work unfolds through bronze, water, wood, and sound, creating a meditative environment where silence itself becomes the primary language.

Yedalian’s installation speaks of what often remains unspoken: inherited memory, hidden wounds, personal and collective trauma, and the quiet persistence of hope.

At the bottom of the installation, the artist has placed water, while throughout the venue the sound of falling water drops can be heard — present yet unseen — becoming both an accompaniment and a unique experience for the visitors. Its continuous presence evokes longing, memory, and all that flows without being perceived, symbolizing the inner voice and rebirth.

As the artist notes in his statement, the work is “not forged in sound, but in the echo of what remains unspoken.”

Rather than offering direct explanations, the installation invites introspection. Visitors are encouraged to slow down, to listen carefully, and to confront emotions that cannot always be articulated through words. In an age saturated with noise and immediacy, The Sound of What Was Never Seen becomes a rare space for stillness and contemplation.

Yet beyond institutional representation, this pavilion carries a deeper symbolic meaning. It marks the arrival of Armenia into this major international cultural platform while simultaneously reconnecting with traces of Armenian history already embedded in Malta’s own cultural landscape.

Indeed, during the opening ceremony, a representative of the Armenian Embassy reflected on the centuries-old ties linking the Armenian and Maltese peoples. “For us, Armenians, speaking about memory here, on the historic soil of Malta is not merely a philosophical reflection — it is something profoundly tangible. Turning the pages of history in St. John’s Co-Cathedral in Valletta, Armenia’s name can still be found engraved among the memorials of knights and officers. These historical links date back to the alliance between the Knights Hospitaller and the Armenian Kingdom of Cilicia in the 12th century. Another symbol of this shared history in Malta is the Church of Our Lady of Liesse, associated with the Bailiff of Armenia Fra Giacomo De Chess du Bellay”.

Today, those historical bridges find a contemporary continuation through art. Armenia’s first pavilion at the Malta Biennale becomes not only an artistic milestone, but also an act of cultural dialogue — reminding audiences that memory survives through creativity and that art possesses the unique power to connect nations across time.

Within the ancient stone walls of Fort St. Elmo, Yedalian’s work quietly accomplishes precisely that. It transforms silence into testimony, fragility into endurance, and memory into a living presence. In doing so, Armenia’s inaugural participation leaves a powerful and deeply human mark on the Malta Biennale 2026.

Armenia’s participation in the Biennale is initiated by the Ministry of Education, Science, Culture, and Sport of the Republic of Armenia, with the support of the Embassy of Armenia to Malta, and the Vahe Fattal Foundation, the Main Sponsor of the National Pavilion of Armenia.

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LA Begins Preservation Project for Armenian American Heritage

George Mamian
My News LA
May 21 2026
by Contributing EditorMay 21, 2026

As part of a preservation project of Armenian American heritage, the city Thursday launched a survey asking residents to help identify and provide information related to significant and meaningful sites to the Armenian community.

The Department of City Planning began working on the city’s Armenian American Historic Context Statement — which officials say may be the first city document across the nation to focus specifically on Armenian American heritage.

Historic context statements are “concise documents that help identify and evaluate historical resources by focusing on how geography, history and culture influenced a community’s development over time,” according to the planning department.

Residents and interested parties can participate in the survey at survey123.arcgis.com/share/eb41b066aa634e24991c4072f66a0438.

The final project is expected to become part of the Citywide Historic Context Statement, developed through SurveyLA, which serves as a primary planning tool for identifying, recording and evaluating historic properties and districts in Los Angeles.

Additionally, the initiative is expected to result in two new city landmark nominations associated with Armenian American history.

Work for this project will be added to several other citywide context statements addressing ethnic-cultural themes such as African American History, Latino Los Angeles, and the heritage associated with five of the city’s largest Asian American communities.

“The Armenian American Historic Context Statement is a welcome recognition of the significant role Armenian Americans have played in the making of modern Los Angeles,” City Councilman Adrin Nazarian said in a statement.

“For over a hundred years, Armenian immigrants and their descendants have made critical contributions to education, the arts and sciences, businesses and civic life in Los Angeles. The locations associated with their achievements should be recorded and celebrated,” said Nazarian, who is Armenian.

Vince Bertoni, director of planning for the city, said his team is honored to partner with the Armenian American community on the initiative.

“The project will enhance our department’s ongoing efforts to broaden public awareness of the city’s diverse cultural heritage, making the places and stories associated with underrepresented histories more visible and legible,” Bertoni said in a statement.

In addition to the survey, project team members will conduct in-person interviews with subject matter experts and residents to learn more about significant places to the local Armenian American community.

Experts from the USC Dornsife Institute of Armenian Studies are expected to participate in the project as well.

“As an institute focused on contemporary Armenian studies, with a particular emphasis on the diaspora in Los Angeles, we are uniquely positioned to contribute critical scholarly insight that reflects the depth, diversity and enduring impact of Armenian communities across the city,” Institute Director Shushan Karapetian said in a statement.

The project was made possible through a $170,000 grant initiated by former City Council President Paul Krekorian.

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Armenia PM on Tigranashen village issue: We cannot abandon topic of enclaves

Emil Lazarian
News.am, Armenia
May 22 2026

Armenia PM on Tigranashen village issue: We cannot abandon topic of enclaves

Throughout the entire history of Google Maps, the name [meaning Tigranashen village] has not changed, it has remained as it was; it’s just that some people have just noticed it. Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, who is on vacation and heads the ruling party’s electoral list for the parliamentary elections on June 7, stated this at a press conference Friday

Pashinyan said the claim that he is handing over something to Azerbaijan is a lie.

“Armenia and Azerbaijan have mutually recognized each other’s territorial integrity, based on the Alma-Ata Declaration, and on that basis have carried out [border] delimitation. This means that Armenia and Azerbaijan are identical to the Armenian SSR and the Azerbaijan SSR, respectively.

We cannot abandon the topic of enclaves, because we ourselves have Artsvashen [village]. I cannot refuse it, because it is a basis for criminal prosecution, no one can refuse the sovereign territory of Armenia. But this is not an easy topic.

There is no agreement at the moment on the resolution of this issue. When talking about this topic, I am talking about the return of the sovereign territory of Armenia. If some optimization takes place during the [border] delimitation, then it can happen, and in that case this process will take place in an open, public, transparent manner.

One thing is obvious: as a result of the [border] delimitation, the territory of Armenia will be 29,743 square kilometers; this is iron logic. And the issues of roads and infrastructure will be resolved during the [border] delimitation,” the Armenian premier noted.

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Armenia premier: There will be no topic of return to Karabakh

Emil Lazarian
News.am, Armenia
May 22 2026

Armenia premier: There will be no topic of return to Karabakh

I am giving guarantees that nothing like this will happen during our rule. Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, who is on vacation and heads the ruling party’s electoral list for the parliamentary elections on June 7, stated this at a press conference Friday, in response to the question of whether he gives guarantees that 300 Azerbaijanis will not return to Armenia.

“That is a lie. I am saying that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is closed, the Karabakh issue will not continue, there will be no topic of return to Karabakh, there will be no topic of return Nakhichevan, there will be no topic of return to Baku, there will be no topic of return to Sumgait, there will be no topic of return to Kirovabad [i.e. today’s Ganja], there will be no topic of return to Yevlakh, there will be no topic of return to Getashen, etc. Yes, I guarantee, it is an absurd topic, it is a topic of conflict; it is not a topic of peace [with Azerbaijan],” Pashinyan added, in particular.

And regarding the video where a group masked and armed people threatened him, Pashinyan said: “I think we have roughly clarified the circle of people, and in fact the people who we think are in that video have not been in Armenia since 2024. This is operational information, because we do not have proof. We have names and surnames. Previously, most likely, they were in our sphere of interest in other cases. In particular, it is possible that they are people involved in the logic of illegal mercenary activity.”

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Strong Armenia bloc premier candidate Samvel Karapetyan: Let PM Pashinyan swea

Maghakian Mike
News.am, Armenia
May 22 2026

Strong Armenia bloc premier candidate Samvel Karapetyan: Let PM Pashinyan swear he won’t resettle 300,000 Azerbaijanis in Armenia

Let [Armenian PM Nikol] Pashinyan swear on [Azerbaijani president Ilham] Aliyev that he will not resettle 300 thousand Azerbaijanis in Armenia. Strong Armenia bloc’s prime ministerial candidate, businessman and philanthropist Samvel Karapetyan, who is under house arrest, stated this during a meeting with a group of media editors Friday.

“They [i.e. the incumbent Armenian authorities] are putting pressure on the weak; it all starts from here. The attack on the state occurs when they see that the head of that state is pursuing the wrong policy, that he is a coward and a liar. This [i.e. Pashinyan] has proven three times that he brings war, that he is a coward, that he is strong only on the bus, but he is powerless everywhere else. He has ruined relations with the main allies [of Armenia], there is nowhere to expect help. And can we afford to fight against everyone? He is a little liar, he lies to everyone—to the people, it is time for the [Armenian] people to understand this. He brings evil to the country. In the future, the settlement of 300 thousand Azerbaijanis [in Armenia],” Karapetyan noted.

Regarding the remark that this morning Pashinyan announced guarantees that this would not happen, Karapetyan asked what exactly Pashinyan can guarantee.

“Let [him] swear on Aliyev that he guarantees. I even agree, let him swear on [Azerbaijani army officer Ramil] Safarov [who had brutally killed Armenian army officer Gurgen Margaryan with an axe]. He [i.e. Pashinyan] was guaranteeing Artsakh [(Nagorno-Karabakh)]; we saw what happened with Artsakh. He was shouting, then he abandoned Artsakh. After [the] 2020 [Artsakh way], Armenia’s authorities do not participate in any decision regarding Armenia and Artsakh. They have a leader, whatever he decides, it will be implemented. They are just a tool in the work of expelling Armenians from the country,” Samvel Karapetyan said.

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Armenian security officers raid opposition party headquarters in Yerevan

Hagop Kamalian
Panorama, Armenia
May 22 2026

Masked officers from Armenia’s National Security Service (NSS) entered the headquarters of the opposition Mother Armenia party in central Yerevan early on Friday, according to party representatives.

Former MP Aregnaz Manukyan said the officers arrived at the party’s office on Mashtots Avenue at around 7 a.m. She said staff members were ordered to leave the building, while opposition politician Andranik Tevanyan remained inside as NSS officers carried out “investigative actions”.

Armenian authorities have not yet issued a statement explaining the purpose of the operation or whether any charges have been filed.

The incident follows rising tensions surrounding Tevanyan, who is listed second on the Prosperous Armenia Party’s electoral slate. Legal pressure against him began after Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s public statement warning of criminal proceedings.

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Armenian MP confirms home, office raids

Toneyan Mark
Panorama, Armenia
May 22 2026

Officers from the Anti-Corruption Committee conducted searches at the residence, vehicle and offices of Martun Grigoryan, a sitting lawmaker and parliamentary candidate from the Prosperous Armenia Party, Grigoryan confirmed on Friday.

Speaking to 24News, Grigoryan said investigators seized computers and electronic storage devices that authorities believe may be linked to alleged violations of Armenia’s ban on charitable activities during election campaigns.

Grigoryan noted that he was unaware whether any of his political allies had been detained but acknowledged that “searches are being carried out in several locations.”

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Prosperous Armenia Party accuses Pashinyan of political vendetta ahead of elec

Emil Lazarian
Panorama, Armenia
May 22 2026

As Armenia prepares for parliamentary elections on June 7, the opposition Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) has accused Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of orchestrating a campaign of political persecution against its candidates.

In a statement released on Friday, PAP spokesperson Iveta Tonoyan, said that masked officers of the National Security Service raided the homes and offices of party members, including parliamentary hopefuls Andranik Tevanyan and Martun Grigoryan. She alleged the actions were politically motivated and timed to disrupt the opposition’s momentum during the most intense phase of the campaign.

“After announcing charges against Andranik Tevanyan, masked agents stormed his office the next morning,” Tonoyan said, adding that Grigoryan’s residence was also searched. She claimed the government’s moves followed “massive and powerful rallies” in Gyumri that unsettled the ruling Civil Contract party.

Tonoyan criticized Pashinyan’s conduct as “unbalanced,” pointing to early-morning press conferences and “baseless accusations” against rivals. She argued that the ruling party has failed to present substantive policy proposals, instead relying on “street-level rhetoric and personal insults.”

Prosperous Armenia, led by businessman and philanthropist Gagik Tsarukyan, has long positioned itself as a defender of national interests. The party has signed cooperation agreements with foreign political groups, including Russia’s United Russia and the European Conservatives and Reformists. Tonoyan recalled Tsarukyan’s efforts to bring European lawmakers to Armenia and Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) to highlight civilian life in the region.

“This is a targeted and systematic attack against an opposition force during the electoral process,” Tonoyan said, urging international organizations, diplomats and observers to scrutinize unlawful practices. She warned that ignoring such developments would mean overlooking threats of “physical retribution” allegedly voiced by Pashinyan against opposition leaders.

The Prosperous Armenia Party vowed to continue its campaign, insisting that “no persecution or political harassment will alter our course.”

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