Public figure Avetik Chalabyan spoke on his Facebook page about yesterday’s “dramatic night” and analyzed what happened yesterday and why.

We present the entire post below. “After a dramatic night, a new morning is dawning, and many of you are probably asking yourself what will happen now. In order to answer that question, we must first understand what happened yesterday and why.

During the Yerevan elections, it became obvious that Nikol Pashinyan, and the revolutionary movement led by him, will try to capitalize on the results of the elections and go for the accelerated dissolution of the National Assembly, although the same Nikol Pashinyan had announced before that that he is inclined to organize the extraordinary elections of the National Assembly in May-June next year. It also became obvious that in those elections the forces representing the previous political system have at best a small chance to overcome the threshold, and in the worst case they may not overcome it and remain on the political sidelines, and Nikol Pashinyan will get not only a constitutional majority in the National Assembly, but also de facto, unlimited power for the next five years. This obvious conflict of interests should lead to a clash, which happened yesterday.

However, unlike almost all previous clashes, this time it escalated the defensive side, and the consolidated vote of all three factions showed that it was a pre-organized and well-calculated move, the meaning of which was to escalate the political crisis and bring it to an accelerated conclusion. Part of that resolution already happened yesterday, when Nikol Pashinyan de facto resigned from the coalition government that has existed since May 8, dismissing the ministers representing them from their positions, and henceforth remained alone in the government (as well as being deprived of even the theoretical support of the National Assembly). The other step in the dissolution was Nikol Pashinyan’s announcement of his imminent resignation, with which he actually starts the process of dissolution of the National Assembly. With that, the events entered an accelerated phase, and now, if the resignation happens, there are only two possible scenarios.

The first scenario is understandable: the National Assembly does not elect a new prime minister, it is dissolved by force of law, and the country goes to new elections. In the second case, the three NA factions create a new parliamentary coalition, I elect a new prime minister, and he tries to pacify the street, with an absolutely unpredictable result, because as much as he can pacify, he can lead to bloodshed and chaos. It is clear that the first scenario is beneficial for the country, but in order for it to happen, the parties must come to an agreement and make mutual concessions. ARF Armen Rustamyan has already talked about the possible logic of concessions: to hold the elections next year, but within the agreed and fixed period of the memorandum, and turn the police into the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and place it under a politically neutral leader acceptable to all. It is clear that RPA and PAP have their own logic of concessions, although they have not formulated it clearly yet. Theoretically, the third scenario is also possible, when after the resignation of Nikol Pashinyan, the parties elect a politically neutral and mutually acceptable, technical prime minister by mutual agreement, who in a short time carries out the preparations for the elections in peaceful conditions, but the probability of this scenario is unclear for now.

In this situation, it would be reasonable for the revolutionary force and Nikol Pashinyan to withdraw from the accelerated resolution and sit down at the negotiating table. It is in the interests of all of us that this National Assembly be dissolved, new, democratic and fair elections take place, and a new political majority is formed, which will represent the country’s population and take full political responsibility for its future development. It is also in the interests of all of us that this process takes place smoothly and even more bloodlessly, and that there is no violation of legitimacy at any stage, which can instantly lead to the intervention of external forces.

This is possible if the revolutionary force realizes that, unlike in May, now an asymmetric balance of forces has been formed, and only force pressure on the street is no longer enough to disperse the National Assembly, and the arsenal of offensive actions in the legal field is actually exhausted. The defending party, no matter how politically weakened and discredited it is, is protected by the existing constitution, and by controlling the National Assembly, which is the highest body of power, it has a significant field of maneuver, which it will not give up just like that.

If we want the revolution to reach its logical conclusion, but at the same time without irretrievable losses, we must find a reasonable compromise that will provide the defending party with sufficient guarantees and incentives to abandon the National Assembly, which is the last bastion of its own legitimacy, and will pave the way for new elections. I think that the defense side is now waiting for such a proposal, and I hope that further developments will go in that direction.”