The most important issue in Artsakh is ensuring the existential security and security status of 150,000 people. This was announced by RA Minister of Foreign Affairs Zohrab Mnatsakanyan in Stepanakert.

It should be noted that the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiation process is currently based on the well-known Madrid principles, the implementation of which, however, cannot ensure the security of Artsakh Armenians, as stated by the RA Foreign Minister.

In recent days, Azerbaijan has targeted the territory of Armenia – Tavush region and Areni village. Baku will not follow the path of recognition of Artsakh, but sees active preparations for a military solution, as evidenced by the Turkish-Azerbaijani military exercises, the visit of the Israeli Defense Minister to Baku, within the framework of which new military-technical contracts may be signed, as well as Erdogan’s statements that relations with Armenia will not be settled until Karabakh is returned to Azerbaijan.

As for the document itself, the Madrid principles, their implementation will lead to the depopulation of Artsakh.

The seven regions or the “security zone”, which are actually the intact parts of the NKR, are Armenian lands, have strategic importance – it is a vital Armenian territory, without which it is impossible to ensure the existential security of the 150,000 people mentioned by Mr. Mnatsakanyan.

First, let’s start from Aghdam (Akna), which is located about 30 km from Stepanakert. During the April four-day battles, the Azerbaijanis wanted to divide Karabakh into two parts, cutting off the northern and southern regions and quickly reaching Stepanakert with tanks, through the Aghdam-Stepanakert tank attack (марш бросок).

If the Azerbaijanis return to Aghdam, and this is assumed by the Madrid document, then, as during the first Karabakh war, it will turn into a strongly fortified, equipped firing point, keeping the heart of the NKR, Stepanakert, under direct artillery fire. In the case of the accumulation of tank troops in Aghdam, the entire region of Askeran and the capital Stepanakert become an easy target, the geography there is flat and allows for the widespread use of armored vehicles, including tanks.

And the Near-Zaraksian regions, in addition to their great agricultural potential, are also important from a military point of view: they are the rear of Hadrut, Shushi, Askeran, and the return of Azerbaijanis there will turn Nagorno-Karabakh into an enclave surrounded by firing points from all sides.

Near-Zaraksian regions are of great economic importance: they ensure NKR’s connection with Iran (after NKR recognition, Stepanakert will be able to maintain a land connection with Iran), as well as insure Syunik Marz of RA, because the surrender of Kubatlu, Jebrail and other regions will again become a headache for Meghri, Kapan and other cities. The Azerbaijanis will build firing points in those regions of Near-Arakh, which will already keep the Syunik region under fire from both sides: the positions of Nakhichevan are under fire from Vayots Dzor, Syunik from the west, and in this case, the Azerbaijanis will appear behind Syunik from the east as well.

As for the Kelbajar region, it is unnecessary to talk about its importance: drinking water resources of Artsakh, strategic position, from there it is possible to control Martakert and Kashatagh, Vayots Dzor, Gegharkunik and other regions of RA with small forces.

Thus, the NKR is a viable state only with today’s borders: the return of the former borders will condemn the NKR to depopulation in the military, economic, and demographic sense and turn it into a “second Nakhichevan”.