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MARCH 1:7 2018 

Past
The week was marked by a large-scale event held in Azerbaijan on March 12-17
with exercises. Around 25,000 different military units took part in them
soldiers, 250 units of tanks and armored vehicles, about 1000 of different calibers
rocket artillery installations and 50 army units of other significance
front air force.

“During the exercise, the troops will perform tasks of repelling the enemy’s attacks, firing at him, as well as restoring the defense lines in advantageous positions through a counter-attack, in order to carry out a further large-scale counter-offensive operation,” the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan announced. Combat shootings using new weapon systems were conducted in various shooting ranges. According to the statement of the spokesperson of the RA MFA, “Azerbaijan started military exercises (the most crowded event within the framework of the country’s president’s “re-election” campaign) under the responsibility of the OSCE. with a shameful violation of the obligation, without notifying the OSCE member states about it.”

That
every country conducts military exercises, and this is a surprise
no, everyone knows. But in this case, two are of interest
circumstance. First, military exercises began in Azerbaijan itself
elections and to elect the current president of Armenia to the post of prime minister
in the direction of the active propaganda work carried out by the ruling party of Armenia
on the threshold. Second, a completely new wording of the purpose of military exercises. “restoration of the defensive line in advantageous positions, further extensive
to carry out counter-offensive operations”. Actually, not
Aliyev borrowed the terms “offensive” and “anti-offensive” from Serzh
from Sargsyan, so that in the future it would not be said that Azerbaijan was the first to start the attack.
This means that over time, if Azerbaijan from any power
If he receives a “dabro” to start military operations, he will definitely start
undertake a “counter-offensive action”. The fact that in 2016 “dabron” was given in April
was from Moscow, they also confirm that in 2018 Arkady Ter-Tadevosyan on March 15
the words in the conversation with “Golos Armeni”. “In 2016, Russia had problems,
so he allowed Azerbaijan to strike…” Now, to the exercises
yesterday, the Kremlin officially announced through the lips of a high-ranking military officer,
that in case of war with Azerbaijan CSTO will not intervene in the military conflict.

There is no doubt that such an approach is possible. Thus, according to the US intelligence report, there is a high probability of the resumption of large-scale military operations in Artsakh. And although the West constantly declares through the lips of Andrew Schaefer that “the status quo cannot be maintained in the long term, the Nagorno Karabakh conflict has no military solution”, it is possible that Azerbaijan, under the leadership of its president, receiving external support, will once again try to carry out “martial exploration” by “tearing” another 800 ha from the lands of Artsakh and coming out victorious in the eyes of its people. Especially, Stockholm International Peace Research According to the data of the Institute (SIRRI), Azerbaijan spent 5 times more funds than Armenia for the acquisition of weapons. Besides, Azerbaijanis are supplied with weapons by other countries (including Israel), while 100 percent of arms supply to Armenia comes from Russia. On the face of it, it seems like a perfect option for a blitzkrieg, especially since the Kremlin’s approval appears to have been obtained.

But wrong
would be to approach this question unambiguously. Moscow has already started thinking
about the effectiveness of unilateral policy in the region. In this sense
“Herik” by political scientists Stanislav Tarasov and Stanislav Stremidlovsky is noteworthy.
is the article “Moscow will play by Baku’s rules”, where the authors simply confirm
are the above. In particular, they write: “… The issue of Nagorno Karabakh
Moscow plays by Azerbaijani rules, while Yerevan and Stepanakert have started
have diversified their foreign policy without hoping that
Russia will set its conditions for lifting the blockade. Russian similar
politics is dangerous because it maintains in Karabakh lightning
of war հնարավորության՝ Hope of Azerbaijan:
And that is when Moscow declares that its goal is not to allow Baku
and another armed conflict between Yerevan. But they are just words, so where are they?
affairs”.

Artsakh
the visit of the government delegation to the United States and its level of acceptance
the fact proves that Washington’s position regarding Artsakh is significant
has undergone changes. The above article confirms the Kremlin’s concern,
which is afraid to let go of the initiative to settle the problem and hand it over
to the USA.

This
was it worth it for Aliyev to put himself in danger in this way?
the future. No one knows how this war will end, right? military exercises of Azerbaijan
in response, the self-defense forces of Artsakh parallel to themselves
conduct military exercises. Moreover, only soldiers can suffer
and the peaceful population both in Artsakh and Azerbaijan. Everything
probably, Aliyev wants the world one more time before the elections
show its military power and Azerbaijan’s “territorial
his right to “restore integrity”. It is not beneficial for Armenia either
Resumption of military operations by Azerbaijan. It’s good if you fight
Artsakh will win as a result. It will be a gift to Serzh Sargsyan for the rest of his life. will automatically guarantee his irreplaceability by the ruling party
the endlessly advancing thesis. And if not? If Armenian forces counterattack
in case the attack is again ordered to stop, as happened in 2016
in the April War. To this day, the society does not know who stopped it
order to take. This time, Serzh Sargsyan will not avoid responsibility
(even if at the time of the start of military operations from the borders of Armenia
out) because he is the supreme commander. Not in any case
none of the options for the further development of the situation, and Armenia, can be excluded
must be ready for anything. But we must always remember that the lives of our soldiers
does not directly depend on the quantity and quality of weapons, but on the conduct of Armenia
from a competent and sovereign foreign policy, without relying on outside help
to put

Karapet Kalenchyan