Rezonansi, Georgia June 2 2017 In five months, 40 practice alerts near the Georgian border and on occupied territories. What is Russia getting ready for? by Tiko Osmanova [Armenian News note: the below is translated from Georgian] A demonstration of force or preparation for combat activities - to check combat readiness, Russia has issued about 40 practice alerts in the Southern Military District over the past five months. What might these activities by our northern neighbour imply? Pundits have come up with several versions about this issue. However, at this stage, they believe there is no likelihood of a military conflict erupting. Alert sounded near Georgian border Yesterday [1 June], the latest alert of the kind was sounded near the Georgian border and in [Russian-] occupied [Georgia's breakaway] Tskhinvali [region]. According to the Russian mass media, on the order of Southern Military District Commander Gen Col Aleksandr Dvornikov, one part of the district's military detachments was brought to full readiness to check their combat readiness. At 4 o'clock in the morning, the alert was sounded in the military units mobilised in Chechnya, Dagestan, Krasnodar Territory and Tskhinvali region, as well. A total of 6,500 military men and 1,500 pieces of military hardware participated in the military inspection. What might these activities by our northern neighbor imply? Pundits have come up with several versions regarding this issue. However, at this stage, they estimate there is no likelihood of a military conflict erupting. Russia's demonstration of force According to expert in military issues Mamuka Areshidze, the northern neighbour's activeness in this direction is merely a demonstration of force. The more active Nato initiatives become in the South Caucasus, including Georgia, the more Russia is trying to show its military potential. "This does not imply anything but a demonstration of force, as the geopolitical situation unfolding [in the region] does not suggest any reason for Russia's possible aggression. I see no need for Russia to begin combat activities anywhere, except Syria, of course. All military formations of the Southern Military District, which are located in the all the regions of the North Caucasus, including Krasnodar and Stavropol territories and [Georgia's breakaway] Abkhazia and South Ossetia [Tskhinvali region], are actively engaged in the inspection. "The more active Nato initiatives are in the South Caucasus, including Georgia, the more Russia is trying to show its military potential," Areshidze told Rezonansi. He also said that the only region in the Caucasus where there is high likelihood that a military conflict will erupt is [Azerbaijan's breakaway Nagornyy] Karabakh. "Combat operations are already under way in Syria, which Russia is actively engaged in, similar to Turkey and the United States. For all major players, the range of activities is quite limited there. If any of them disrupts the balance, the danger of a third world war will arise. This does not play into the hands of any of the sides. "At present, the only danger posed is the renewal of the Karabakh conflict. This is more or less likely. Georgia's, Azerbaijan's international standing "different" "Georgia's and Azerbaijan's standing in the international arena is different. Relations between Georgia and Nato have not gone beyond declarations notwithstanding the fact that the Nato Parliamentary Assembly was held here and messages of rapprochement were sent. However, this does not imply Georgia isjoining Nato. Neither does this imply that the situation regarding this issue will change in the near future. Russia has already become used to this, and does not see any particular danger in it. "Regarding Azerbaijan, official Baku has joined an extremely important international coalition, which is being formed around Saudi Arabia and is also called the Arab Nato. This fact is a serious message for Russia. This is an anti-Iranian coalition, which implies the redistribution of forces in the Middle East region. "If Azerbaijan displays new military aggression in the context of the Karabakh conflict, it is not ruled out that Russia will not react the same way as it did last summer. There is not a high likelihood, but it still is [possible]," Areshidze said. Several reasons for demonstrating force According to Tbilisi University Professor Korneli Kakachia, Russia's demonstration of force is related to several factors. "Given the reforms recently implemented in the defence and security spheres of Russia, this activeness should not be surprising. Russia's defence policy has become more aggressive. Apart from this, Russia is engaged in conflicts with its neighbours and this demonstration of force should not be surprising. This is also aimed at checking the effectiveness of the amount of money spent on these reforms. "No-one is able to precisely say where Russia is going to use this force in practice. However, it is a fact that this is mainly targeted at post-Soviet countries. The thing is that Russian authorities still consider them as the sphere of their influence, including our region and Karabakh. "Russia voiced the desire to have a military presence in Karabakh. Armenia and Azerbaijan are certainly opposed to this. However, it is not ruled out that [Russia] will take steps in this direction. "Apart from Karabakh, [Russia] might use force in Ukraine. However, what matters most is that all this might be meant for domestic consumption. In 2018, Russia is holding a [parliamentary] election. Therefore, the authorities need to somehow show society how strong Russia is and how [successfully] it is regaining its special [place] in world politics," Kakachia told Rezonansi.