Once Obedient, Once Unyielding

James Hakobyan

11:58:46 – 19/10/2009

The phone conversation of the American and Turkish presidents
which followed Serge Sargsyan’s visit to Turkey creates grounds
for interesting thoughts. The point is that in the same period the
Azerbaijani foreign minister Elmal Mamedyarov stated that the Armenian
side arouses questions in connection with the Karabakh issue which
had already been settled two-three years ago. In other words, this
means that Serge Sargsyan arouses questions settled during Robert
Kocharyan’s tenure. In other words, Serge Sargsyan comes out not to
agree with previous arrangements. And since Mamedyarov states this
with dissatisfaction, so Serge Sargsyan’s opinions are apparent
to have become stricter in this connection. The first hint in this
relation took place before Serge Sargsyan’s leaving for Turkey when
he stated in the airport before leaving for Moscow that no question
on yielding lands is discussed with Aliyev.

Naturally, the question occurs what determines Serge Sargsyan’s
becoming sharply strict if earlier he had softer opinions in this
connection than Robert Kocharyan who during the last years of
this tenure threatened Azerbaijan to even recognize the Karabakh
independence. What happened with Serge Sargsyan who signed the Moscow
declaration that he started expressing strict signs in connection with
the Karabakh issue? Is the point the Armenian and Turkish relations?

In other words, the Minsk group co-chairs are possible to have
given to Serge Sargsyan their agreement to strengthen his opinions
in Karabakh issue. But in this case Serge Sargsyan comes out to
be right when stating that Karabakh is not a precondition in the
Armenian and Turkish relations. From this point, it is interesting
that Barack Obama speaking to the Turkish president underscored the
importance of continuing the normalization of the Armenian and Turkish
relations. In other words, Obama is possible to see some problems in
connection with ratifying the protocols in Turkey and hints that it
should not be failed. And the failure may happen in Turkey only if
what the Turks want in connection with Karabakh lacks. In other words,
Obama seems to be persuading Gul not to pay attention to the Karabakh
issue and to ratify the protocols.

>>From this point, much will be revealed during the visit of the
Turkish prime minister to the U.S. on October 29 sure, if by that
time the Armenian and Turkish protocols do not appear in the Turkish
parliament for ratification. Anyway, it becomes evident that the
Karabakh issue is put at some distance from the Armenian and Turkish

International mediators are not ruled out to be trying to bring the
process to a crucial point to get engaged in taking the other beyond it
later. In any case, the dynamism which is expressed in the Armenian
and Turkish process seems to lack in the Karabakh issue. This of
course does not mean that the Armenian diplomacy managed to register
a big victory. Here no worth of the Armenian diplomacy exists. This
diplomacy merely gets use of the agreement of the super powers in
the Karabakh issue which is the reason why it is once obedient or
unyielding. But it itself does not know what it is in reality.