The California Courier Online Feb. 29, 2024

The California Courier Online, February 29, 2024

1- Aliyev Asks the Arab League and Turkey

To Pressure PACE to Readmit Azerbaijan
By Harut
Sassounian
Publisher,
The California Courier
www.TheCaliforniaCourier.com
2- France to deliver armaments to Armenia
3- Dadrian Archive Project Housed at UCLA
4- Catholic Armenian prisoner sends open letter to Pope Francis

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1- Aliyev Asks the Arab League and Turkey
To Pressure PACE to Readmit Azerbaijan
By Harut Sassounian
Publisher, The California Courier
TheCaliforniaCourier.com

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev repeatedly states: “I doesn’t care who says what about my country, I will continue doing whatever I want.” However, this is a cover up. Regardless of his public tough talk, Azerbaijan is working behind the scenes to manage its conflicts with other countries.

Last week, I wrote that Azerbaijan asked the Israeli government to intercede with France to improve their relations which have deteriorated in recent years due to the French support of Armenia in the Artsakh conflict. Since Israel turned down Aliyev’s request to mediate with France, Azerbaijan started looking for other channels to resolve its problems with Europe.

After the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) suspended Azerbaijan’s membership, Aliyev asked the League of Arab States to intervene with Europeans to restore Azerbaijan’s status. On February 13, 2024, at Azerbaijan’s request, Adel bin Abdul Rahman Al-Asoomi, the President of the Arab League’s Parliament, sent a letter to the President of PACE, Theodoros Rousopoulos, complaining about the resolution PACE had adopted refusing to ratify the credentials of the delegation of Azerbaijan.

The President of the Arab Parliament told PACE: “The Arab Parliament expresses its deep regret over the adoption of this resolution; the Republic of Azerbaijan is a friend and strategic partner of the Arab States and plays a significant and influential role to preserve cultural diversity and to promote dialogue among civilizations. …The Republic of Azerbaijan is a member of the Council of Europe since 2001 and plays a major role in promoting activities of this Organization and achieving its principles and objectives. At the global level, it makes concerted efforts to lower tensions and conflicts….”

The President of the Arab Parliament then counseled PACE: “Multilateral parliamentary diplomacy must be an instrument to reconcile points of view, and a wall of resistance in front of any divisions, and an added value for the diffusion of the principles of peace and tolerance.”

The letter ended by urging PACE to reconsider its earlier resolution that had refused to ratify the credentials of Azerbaijan’s parliamentary delegation “which contradict the principles of dialog and cooperation.”

Naturally, Azerbaijan’s Parliament (Milli Majlis) immediately publicized the Arab Parliament’s letter which was also published by several Azeri newspapers.

It is very odd that the Arab Parliament would intervene with PACE on a matter that has nothing to do with Arab states. Azerbaijan is neither a member nor an observer of the Arab League. How can the President of the Arab Parliament call Azerbaijan “a friend and strategic partner of Arab States,” when it is an ally of Israel and buys billions of dollars of Israeli weapons? That is the reason Azerbaijan’s request in the past for observer status was rejected by the Arab League. The only possible explanation for the Arab Parliament’s willingness to write a letter to PACE is that Azerbaijan was engaged in its usual practice of ‘Caviar Diplomacy,’ meaning that it made a very generous donation to the Arab League. Therefore, the Arab Parliament’s statement about Azerbaijan seeking dialog and peace has nothing to do with reality.

Since Armenia has had an Observer status with the League of Arab States since 2005, I am curious to know if Armenia’s representative in the League was aware that the Arab Parliament was considering sending such a letter to PACE in support of Azerbaijan. If yes, what actions, if any, he or she took to object to sending such a letter?

In addition to the Arab League, Azerbaijan is pursuing its lobbying efforts at PACE through its big brother Erdogan, the President of Turkey. Yasar Yakis, the former Foreign Minister of Turkey and founder of the ruling AK Party, wrote in ARAB NEWS on February 25: “Turkey has strongly opposed the suspension of Azerbaijan [from PACE]…. Even if Azerbaijan’s membership of the Council of Europe is suspended, it could survive without being a member.”

Earlier in February, when Aliyev visited Erdogan in Ankara, the Turkish President pledged to do everything possible “to get Azerbaijan's credentials validated at PACE. We will continue our support and efforts for Azerbaijan until the decision [not ratifying its credentials] is overturned.” Erdogan added that Turkey will stress that PACE should be a platform for “parliamentary democracy rather than conflict.” However, Aliyev and Erdogan do not have parliamentary democracy and peace in their own countries.

If Aliyev truly did not care what actions other countries take against Azerbaijan, he would not have gone to such great lengths to lobby the Arab League and Pres. Erdogan to restore his country’s credentials at PACE. He would have simply ignored PACE’s decision.

The truth is that Aliyev deeply cares about his image. Most dictators, having violated all sorts of domestic and international laws, do everything possible to whitewash their crimes and try to look like an angel in the eyes of the world.
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2- France to deliver armaments to Armenia

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 22, ARMENPRESS. France will deliver a batch of defensive armaments to Armenia, Le Figaro reported..
The supplies include three Thalès Ground Master (GM 200) radars which have a range of 250 kilometers, as well as night vision devices and other equipment.
As part of defense cooperation, this year the French military will conduct mountain combat training courses for Armenian troops.
French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu is expected to arrive in Armenia.
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3- Dadrian Archive Project Housed at UCLA

MISSION HILLS, Calif. — The Ararat-Eskijian Museum Research Center (AEMRC) and the Armenian Genocide Research Program (AGRP) within the Promise Armenian Institute at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) announced the launch of the Vahakn N. Dadrian Archive Project.

Prof. Dadrian (1926–2019) was a preeminent scholar of the Armenian Genocide and instrumental in establishing the larger field of genocide studies. He lectured and published widely in the field, leading to greater international recognition of the Armenian Genocide. His unique collection of archival materials and books is of extraordinary value to those researching the origins of the Armenian Genocide, the Genocide itself and its aftermath.

Throughout his career, Professor Dadrian accumulated a wealth of material on the Armenian Genocide in different archives, American, British, German, French, Armenian and Ottoman among them. His archive has also numerous unpublished manuscripts and newspapers from various languages. Before his death, he transferred these materials to the AEMRC. The Vahakn Dadrian Armenian Genocide Book Collection is now housed in the Edward L. Doheny Jr. Memorial Library located at the University of Southern California.

AEMRC initiated a project in 2009 to digitize his personal notes and archives of historical documents and make them available for future generations of researchers interested in furthering their knowledge of Armenian Genocide Studies and general genocide studies.

A total of 28,000 pages out of a total of 110,000 pages were digitized and indexed by 2018. It took two years of effort to appropriately preserve the entire archive collection into special folders and boxes. This full archive has been available to scholars and researchers by in-person appointment only at the AEMRC. Due to a large grant received in 2023, the remaining 80,000 pages are being digitized and indexed. Dr. Anna Aleksanyan, a post-graduate student from Clark University, has been involved in these efforts. She is also currently on fellowship with the AGRP.

The Vahakn N. Dadrian Archive Project is led under the direction of Professor Taner Akçam, the inaugural Director of the AGRP. This project is anticipated to be completed by December 2025. Upon completion, the entire collection will be available online.

The Ararat-Eskijian Museum was founded in June 1985 by Genocide survivor, Luther Eskijian, and includes a unique collection of Armenian artifacts as well as books and materials about the Armenian Genocide. The museum is also a cultural and educational center where scholars, artists, writers, and community leaders can present current and historical subjects related to the Armenian people, as well as Genocide education.

The Armenian Genocide Research Program (AGRP) was established within the Promise Armenian Institute at UCLA in early 2022. Led by Taner Akçam, Ph.D., the AGRP engages in research and scholarly activities pertaining to the study of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire during the early 20th century.
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4- Catholic Armenian prisoner sends open letter to Pope Francis

Christian Post
By Uzay Bulut and Luciana Minassian, Op-ed contributor

Armenian prisoners of war (POWs) have been illegally detained and tortured in Azerbaijan’s jails for the past three years in violation of international humanitarian and human rights laws.

These prisoners were arrested by Azeri forces during Azerbaijan's war against the Armenian Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh in 2020 as well as its aftermath.

The military of Azerbaijan — with the help of Turkey — attacked Artsakh between 27 September 2020 and 10 November 2020. The war was suspended through an agreement mediated by Russia and signed by Azerbaijan and Armenia.

According to the agreement, all prisoners of war should have been returned and none other arrested after the agreement’s enactment. Azerbaijan, however, refuses to honor this and continues to illegally hold and abuse Armenian POWs.

One is a Catholic Armenian prisoner of war who through an open letter has called on Pope Francis and the Vatican to help him.

Gevorg Sujyan is the founding president of the “New Armenia Homeland-Diaspora Charitable NGO.” Along with another humanitarian worker, Davit Davtyan, Sujyan was arrested by Azeri forces in Artsakh after the November 2020 ceasefire agreement.

Both were part of the non-governmental organization that was providing humanitarian aid near the Shushi region of Arsakh, which was under attack by Azerbaijan.

Sujyan and Davtyan faced an unjust trial in 2021, resulting in a 15-year imprisonment sentence at a Baku detention center. The charges against them, including accusations of “espionage,” were based on a series of articles from the Azerbaijani criminal code. The Baku Court on Grave Crimes orchestrated these trials, which were marked by illegal, illegitimate, and improper proceedings.

Through his family, Sujyan sent an open letter to Pope Francis, asking for help to secure his release:

The Reverend Father,

I offer you the bitter sorrow and the tragic plea of my heart. Please receive these concise and sincere words with kindness, and not with anger. May my heartfelt appeal reach you now, and may the prisoner’s wish be granted in the name of God.

I repent of my sin. I am not a murderer. I have not cheated, yet I am condemned as a criminal. I am misunderstood. I am left with no hope of survival, I am trapped in endless despair…

And now I humbly beg you, merciful Father, to release me from the prison of sins for I have repented for my wrongdoings. Grant me, the undeserving, salvation and freedom. Alleviate my sadness with your mercy. I implore you, take me out of the profound abyss.

I have a family, a son who awaits my return, shedding endless tears. My pleas are filled with anguish, and they resonate from the very depths of my soul. Where will I find my salvation?

Please help me, be the mediator who will save my soul …

Gevorg Ruben Sujyan

The first Armenian genocide in modern history occurred in Ottoman Turkey in 1915. Approximately 1.5 million Armenians perished.

Over 100 years later, from 2020 to 2023, Armenians faced Turkish and Azeri military assaults, illegal blockades, and forced displacements. Azerbaijan and Turkey carried out an ethnic cleansing campaign against Armenians in Artsakh. This included methods such as starving, indiscriminately bombing and forcibly displacing around 120,000 Armenians. Azeri forces beheaded and mutilated Armenians — both civilians and soldiers — and posted videos of these beheadings on social media.

The subsequent mistreatment of Armenian captives is deeply concerning. Accused of violating various articles of Azerbaijan's Penal Code, Sujyan and Davtyan underwent sham trials in Baku's Serious Crimes Court. These trials were shaped by unlawfulness, arbitrariness, and a lack of due process. Armenian detainees faced false accusations and were denied basic guarantees, including the right to a defense lawyer from the moment of their arrest. This contravenes fundamental principles of justice and human rights.

Under the Geneva Convention, these individuals, classified as prisoners of war, should have been promptly repatriated after their arrest. The deliberate disregard for these international norms by Azerbaijan is a blatant violation of humanitarian principles.

A report by the University Network for Human Rights entitled “How Three Years of Atrocities Against Ethnic Armenians Led to Ethnic Cleansing” details the types of torture that the Armenian POWs are routinely exposed to in Azeri jails:

“Armenians captured by Azerbaijan during and after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, as well as in the course of fighting on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border in September 2022, have been subjected to torture and cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment while in Azerbaijani custody.

Forms of torture and mistreatment have included prolonged and repeated beatings with batons, skewers, brooms, and firearms; laceration of wrists with zip-ties; employment of electro-shock and stress positions; sleep deprivation; confiscation of warm clothing during extreme cold; deprivation of food, water, and hygiene products; and infliction of mental suffering and humiliation.”

The actual number of Armenian POWs in Azerbaijan is unknown because Azerbaijan refuses to be transparent about the number. It is also unknown how many POWs were executed after their capture.

According to 

the Center for Truth and Justice,

“Twenty-three Armenians are being illegally detained in Azerbaijan … However, it is suspected that many more POWs and civilian hostages are lingering in Azerbaijani prisons. Now that both wars have ended, all detainees must be freed immediately under the Geneva Conventions. However, Azerbaijan refuses to comply.”

Sujyan, Davtyan and other Armenian prisoners in Azerbaijan are tortured for being Christian and Armenian. Governments across the world and international human rights organizations appear to abandon them and ignore their plight. Will Pope Francis and the Vatican hear their call and help liberate them from the captivity and torture they have been suffering for the past three years?

Uzay Bulut is a Turkish journalist formerly based in Ankara.

Luciana Minassian is a human rights lawyer based in Argentina.
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California Courier weekly Englsh-language Armenian newspaper, based in California.
Website: TheCaliforniaCourier.com
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Russian border guards failed to prevent February 13 Azeri border shooting, while EUMA had no access – official

 16:32,

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 21, ARMENPRESS. The EU monitoring mission did not have access to the area where Azerbaijan’s latest aggression took place in Syunik province, Secretary of the Security Council Armen Grigoryan has said.

He said that Russian border guards have presence in that area, but they failed to prevent the Azeri aggression.

“When the latest incident took place in Nerkin Hand, the EU monitoring mission didn’t have access there, unlike the Russians, and Russia itself is present there, and it couldn’t prevent the incident,” Grigoryan told reporters.

He said that EUMA definitely has stabilizing role in the region and Armenia fully supports the mission.

He said he is aware that Russian border guards have prevented EU monitors from entering Nerkin Hand, and that he has already addressed the matter.

4 Armenian soldiers were killed and another wounded on February 13 when Azeri forces opened fire at an Armenian military post near Nerkin Hand, Syunik.

Ameriabank executives to retain management – Bank of Georgia Group chairman

 13:36,

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 20, ARMENPRESS. Ameriabank and Bank of Georgia Group (BOGG) PLC have completed negotiations. Ameriabank can now join the BOGG international group. The next phase envisages the confirmation of the deal, and meanwhile BOGG chairman Mel Carvill has visited Armenia on the occasion of the successful completion of the negotiations.

In an interview with journalist Eric Hacopian, Carvill spoke about Armenia’s investment appeal, presented BOGG, the details of the possible deal and its importance for both sides.

He also spoke about the opportunities that the deal would provide in case of confirmation. The BOGG chairman said that greater security and stability guarantees will be created for the bank’s customers, because Ameriabank will be part of a major banking group and thus have direct access to global capital markets. At the same time, Carvill said that Ameriabank will continue shaping its success story by remaining the leading Armenian bank. “The current management team will also continue to manage the bank,” he said.

[see video]

Ruben Vardanyan not involved in Ameriabank deal, claims associate

 15:41,

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 19, ARMENPRESS. Ruben Vardanyan has no involvement in the possible sale of Ameriabank, according to one of his associates.  

Mesrop Arakelyan, a member of the Aprelu Yerkir party, issued a statement Monday denying reports on Vardanyan’s involvement in the deal.

Aurora Humanitarian Initiative co-founder and former State Minister of Nagorno-Karabakh Ruben Vardanyan was arrested by Azerbaijani authorities on September 27, 2023 while en route to Armenia together with tens of thousands of others amid the mass exodus. He has since been jailed in Baku on fabricated criminal charges.

In a statement, Arakelyan said that Vardanyan isn’t personally a shareholder of Ameriabank.

Vardanyan’s 48,8% shares are managed by Imast Group, he said. “No shareholder is authorized to make such decisions by themselves. Ruben Vardanyan, having left the bank’s board, hasn’t been engaged in the bank’s management for a long time. The discussions around the possible sale of the bank started back in 2022. The possible sale deal must receive confirmation of authorized state bodies of Armenia. In short, Ruben Vardanyan has nothing to do with the possible sale of the bank,” Arakelyan said.

On February 19,  Ameriabank released a statement saying it reached an agreement with the BOGG (the Group), a UK registered financial group, to join the latter as a standalone entity and the Group to become the main shareholder of the Bank, with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (“EBRD”) retaining their 10% shareholding in Ameriabank.

The Financial Conduct Authority, the financial services conduct regulator in the UK, has approved the circular of the transaction. As a next step, the transaction is subject to approval by shareholders, as well as the regulatory bodies, including the Central Bank of Armenia.

Bank of Georgia Group PLC is a UK incorporated international financial group listed on the Premium Segment of the LSE Main Market and a constituent of the FTSE-250 index. Among the Group’s shareholders are some of the world’s largest financial institutions, such as JPMorgan, BlackRock, The Vanguard Group, Schroders, Norges Bank Investment Management (a leading pension fund), etc.

Following approvals and closing of the transaction, Ameriabank will operate as a standalone entity within the Group under its own brand name and the current leadership in place, committed to Ameriabank’s adopted strategic goals, values, mission and vision.

Amidst significant achievements in recent years and the current stage of technological development, Ameriabank views this transaction with the Group as a one of the well-reasoned options for its long-term growth. Upon successful completion of the transaction, Ameriabank will become a member of a LSE listed Group with access to global financial markets to raise capital and investments and will continue offering the latest financial products and technological solutions to its customers.

Following the closing of the transaction and with Ameriabank on board, the Group also intends to change its name marking a new chapter in its development.

dpa international EU’s Borrell condemns renewed Azerbaijani-Armenian violence

yahoo!news
Feb 13 2024

The European Union's top diplomat on Tuesday condemned Azerbaijan's "disproportionate" response to alleged shooting by Armenian forces the day before.

"The Armenian shooting of the Azerbaijani soldier yesterday was deplorable, but the Azerbaijani response today seems to be disproportionate," Josep Borrell said.

Borrell was speaking at a press briefing in Brussels with Armenian foreign minister Ararat Mirzoyan to mark the fifth meeting of the EU-Armenia Partnership Council, first held in 2018.

The meeting covered the "full spectrum" of EU-Armenian relations, Borrell said. "We discussed the regional situation and the Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization process, unhappily including the latest incident at the border."

Armenian and Azerbaijani troops exchanged fire on Monday and Tuesday in the latest skirmish of a long-running conflict the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

On Tuesday, the European Commission announced it was allocating €5.5 million in new humanitarian aid to support Armenians displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh.

The EU and Armenian delegations also discussed the potential for a "dialogue" on liberalizing the visa regime between the EU and Armenia, political reforms and human rights, as well as economic and trade cooperation.

"Armenia believes that all the necessary requirements have been met and it is time to launch the Armenia-EU visa liberalisation dialogue," Mirzoyan said. "It is a choice to be made to bring our peoples closer and to provide them with tangible outcomes of our cooperation."

The EU-Armenia Partnership Council is the product of an agreement signed in 2017 to deepen cooperation on a broad array of matters such as security, arms control, human rights, the environment, energy, migration, and combatting organized crime, terrorism, money laundering and drug trafficking.

In January 2023, EU member states agreed to establish a civilian mission to patrol and monitor the the region of Armenia near the Azerbaijani border, amid hostilities between the two countries.

In September, the EU condemned Azerbaijan's military campaign against ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.

In November, Mirzoyan said Armenians "have European aspirations" in a speech welcoming the EU's decision to open membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova and to recognize Georgia, Armenia's neighbour, as an official candidate for EU membership.

But the EU and Armenia have taken different positions on Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While the EU has provided money and weapons for the Ukrainian war effort, Armenia has abstained on UN General Assembly resolutions against the invasion.

Armenia is also a member of the Common Security Treaty Organization, a Russian-led military alliance.

Armenia has however sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine, which in September provoked the Russian government to summon the Armenian ambassador in Moscow.

Azerbaijan falsely accuses Armenia of opening fire – Defense Ministry

 09:21, 13 February 2024

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 13, ARMENPRESS. The Azerbaijani authorities are generating fake news targeting the Armenian military, the Ministry of Defense has warned.

The Azeri Defense Ministry, in its latest statement, falsely accused the Armenian military of opening fire at Azeri posts.

“The statement issued by the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, alleging that between 20:50 and 23:40 on February 12, the units of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia fired in the direction of Azerbaijani positions situated in the northeastern part of the border, is untrue,” the Ministry of Defense said.

Ministry of Defense releases names of fallen troops

 14:18, 13 February 2024

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 13, ARMENPRESS. The Ministry of Defense of Armenia released the names of the 4 soldiers who were killed in action in Syunik when Azerbaijani forces opened gunfire at their post near Nerkin Hand.

The names of the fallen troops: Eduard H. Harutyunyan (born 1974), Gagik V. Manukyan (born 1982), Arsen G. Hambardzumyan (born 1979), Hrachya T. Hovhannisyan (born 1957).

The Ministry of Defense extended condolences to the families and friends of the fallen troops.

Armenian Protection Act Introduced in the House

Washington, D.C. - The Armenian Assembly of America (Assembly) welcomed today's introduction of bipartisan legislation spearheaded by Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), along with Rep. Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ), Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R-FL), and Rep. Gabe Amo (D-RI), for the Armenian Protection Act, which repeals the waiver authority to Section 907 of the FREEDOM Support Act. 


Section 907 states that U.S. funds "may not be provided to the Government of Azerbaijan until the President determines and so reports to the Congress, that the Government of Azerbaijan is taking demonstrable steps to cease all blockades and other offensive uses of force against Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh." In the aftermath of September 11, a conditional waiver was added to exempt Azerbaijan from Section 907 if certain criteria were met and certified by the Administration.

 

The introduction of this Act comes as the Senate adopted by voice vote S.3000, also known as the Armenian Protection Act, led by Senator Gary Peters (D-MI) and Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL). Senator Peters, who traveled to Armenia in September of 2023, emphasized his support for the Armenian people during the Assembly's Fall 2023 Advocacy Summit, where he stated that he would encourage more of his colleagues in the Senate "to support the Armenian people" and for "repercussions" to take place against Azerbaijan's Aliyev regime.


"We applaud Rep. Lawler, along with his colleagues Reps. Pallone, Bilirakis, and Amo for this bipartisan measure," said Assembly Congressional Relations Director Mariam Khaloyan. "Azerbaijan should be sanctioned, not rewarded, for its genocidal policies against the Armenian people," Khaloyan added.


Established in 1972, the Armenian Assembly of America is the largest Washington-based nationwide organization promoting public understanding and awareness of Armenian issues. The Assembly is a non-partisan, 501(c)(3) tax-exempt membership organization.



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NR# 2024-03


Armenian PM’s new constitution proposal faces uphill battle

eurasianet
Feb 7 2024

Arshaluis Mgdesyan Feb 7, 2024

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's call for a new constitution is widely being seen as a move to bow to Azerbaijan's latest demands. 

Among other reforms, he wants to remove a provision in the nation's main legal document that calls for the unification of Armenia with the Nagorno-Karabakh region. 

Armenia and Azerbaijan fought two wars over Karabakh, in 1991-94 and in 2020. For 31 years the mainly Armenian-populated territory was governed by a de facto entity called the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR, also known by Armenians as the Artsakh Republic). 

The NKR ceased to exist as of January 1, 2024, three months after a lightning Azerbaijani military offensive forced the region's entire Armenian population to flee. 

Now, Pashinyan and his government say external threats necessitate a change in the constitution's preamble, which enshrines the text of the 1990 Declaration of Independence of the Republic of Armenia. 

The former document affirms the December 1, 1989 declaration by the Supreme Council of the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic that calls for unification of the Armenian SSR and Nagorno-Karabakh. 

This apparent move to turn the page on Karabakh altogether and appease Azerbaijan has triggered heated debates in Armenian society.

Peace and legitimacy

The idea of rebooting the constitution altogether was first voiced by Prime Minister Pashinyan on January 18 during discussions on the Justice Ministry's activities during the last calendar year.

He gave two broad reasons. One, that the conduct of previous constitutional referendums was marred by fraud allegations, placing the entire document's legitimacy in doubt. 

And two, that "new geopolitical and regional realities" require a new constitution in order to keep Armenia viable and competitive.

Regional politics have indeed changed radically since 2020, when Armenia suffered defeat in the Second Karabakh War. In that conflict Azerbaijan gained control of most of the territory that had been administered by the NKR for the previous 26 years, leaving behind a rump territory populated by Armenians and surrounded by Azerbaijani-controlled territory. Three years later, in September last year, Baku seized that, too, emptying Karabakh of its Armenian population. 

Since then, Armenians have felt vulnerable to Azerbaijani attack given Baku's statements about cutting a corridor through the Republic of Armenia. So many saw in Pashinyan's statement a signal that he was ready to cave to Azerbaijani demands.

Then on January 31, the prime minister gave an interview to Armenian Public Radio in which he basically affirmed that was the case. He mooted holding a constitutional referendum since, as he put it, having the current constitution is like wearing red clothing while Armenia's hostile neighbors (Azerbaijan and Turkey) are bulls.  

The current constitution's enshrinement of the Armenian SSR's 1989 declaration calling for union with Karabakh poses a threat to Armenia's security, Pashiniyan said, as it could provide a pretext for further Azerbaijani action. 

"This means that we'll never have peace.  Furthermore, it means that we will have war now… We are strengthening our army and everyone can see that we are spending major resources on reorganizing the army. That is to say, we are saying that we are strengthening our army and aim to implement the provisions of our declaration [union with Karabakh]. This means that our neighbors will ally to destroy us," the prime minister said in the radio interview. 

Aliyev weighs in

The next day, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stirred the pot by demanding that Armenia change the preamble to its constitution and other laws that according to Aliyev make claims on Azerbaijani territory. 

"The Declaration of Independence of Armenia contains direct calls for the unification of Karabakh with Armenia, that is, the violation of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. There are also references to this document in the Constitution of Armenia. … Peace can be achieved if we put an end to these claims, amend the Constitution of Armenia and other normative legal documents," Aliyev said.

One day later the Constitutional Reforms Council under the Armenian Justice Ministry announced the formal start of work on the reforms."

For the Armenian opposition, this was proof that Pashinyan's push for a new constitution was the result of pressure from Azerbaijan and its close ally Turkey. 

Artur Khachatryan, an MP from the opposition Armenia faction, told Eurasianet that, while the Pashinyan government has been pursuing constitutional reform for several years, "Now the authorities are proposing a whole new constitution, and this is something else altogether. From what government representatives say, it is clear that they want to delete the provision about union with Artsakh and that this is a result of pressure from Azerbaijan and Turkey."

The authorities' push for a constitutional break with Nagorno-Karabakh is difficult for Armenian society to swallow, as the battle for Karabakh has been one of the main pillars of Armenian identity for the past three-plus decades. 

One of the people voicing this sentiment was Garegin Khumaryan, the director of Armenian Public Radio, who published a scathing commentary several days after the prime minister's appearance on his outlet. The argument behind revamping the constitution, as well as the ruling party's proposal to replace the country's coat of arms and national anthem, boils down to, "Let us stop being Armenians so that they don't kill us," Khumaryan said.

Stalling for time? 

Armenian political analyst Hakop Badalyan suspects that Pashinyan and his team's rhetoric around constitutional reform could be a maneuver to buy time until the U.S. presidential election in November.

"I think it's possible that there ultimately might not be any constitutional reform. Reforming the constitution is a lengthy process, and it could at least serve to maintain stability at the Armenian-Azerbaijani border during this year. In the meantime the international situation will become clearer, as the U.S. elections will take place and we'll find out how willing Washington will be to devote efforts to securing a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan," Badalyan told Eurasianet.

Meanwhile, some analysts say Pashinyan could face serious difficulties adopting the new constitution if it is ultimately put to a referendum. The current constitution stipulates that an act put to referendum is approved only if both: 1) more than half the votes are in favor, and 2) more than a quarter of eligible voters vote in favor. 

The number of eligible voters in the 2021 snap presidential election was about 2.6 million. This means that a minimum of roughly 650,000 votes in favor are required.

This will be a heavy lift for Pashinyan and his team, according to Badalyan. The ruling party, Civil Contract, garnered about 688,000 votes in the 2021 poll, which was hotly contested and which saw a high degree of public engagement.

If it comes down to a referendum, the analyst added, the authorities will try to get people to vote in favor by sowing fear. 

"They will try to convince the people to vote in favor as a new constitution is the key to peace with Azerbaijan while the opposite result could lead to war."

Arshaluis Mgdesyan is a journalist based in Yerevan.